1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Wurbus]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Of course it's also having issues being released. But literally just day after day of snow across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.

GFS also has that High dive straight down into the panhandle of TX and it is sitting at 1047 at 150 lol

[Carvers Gap]

I am always wrong w/ the GEM in thinking it will be suppressed...but the high is pushing further south on this run at 12z

[John1122]

The Canadian has slightly better thermals but still major ice issues along and south of 40.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Wurbus said:

GFS also has that High dive straight down into the panhandle of TX and it is sitting at 1047 at 150 lol

Has second piece trapped..cant kick so it keeps slinging moisture along the boundary

[Carvers Gap]

Yup. 12z GEM  is south of 0z pretty bigly.  Just watching trends right now.

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, the 12z GEM is a MAJOR winter storm...gonna try to go inland runner @TellicoWx

[John1122]

Crazy sleet totals on the Canadian that run. I would love to see the sleet accumulation maps over the region.

[Mrwolf1972]

CMC a sleet ice storm

[Wurbus]

2-3" of QPF for all of East TN on that CMC run

[John1122]

That GFS run would break snowfall records in every southern state except Tennessee.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Crazy sleet totals on the Canadian that run. I would love to see the sleet accumulation maps over the region.

I was thinking the same.  The ZR was gone, but snow was missing.  Somebody had to have been pasted on that run!

[TellicoWx]

When you view it as 2 separate systems..1) overunning snow looks almost locked..amounts will vary. 2) the second piece, is at the time frame where models have some divergence in evolution (old saying " we're at x hr where models lose it, to bring it back as we get closer". Where ever those 2 overlap is going to be in for a potentially historic ride.

[Carvers Gap]

Throw the GEM, ICON, and GFS in the blender....good result.

[nrgjeff]

Nah that happened with the +Bz on what could have been the aurora of the half century.

3 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I keep waiting for Lucy to show up & take the football.  Can this really be possible to actually happening.

Canadian still Quebec 1998s us. Euro isn't as destructive but still a lot of ice. GFS is now getting back into more ice. NWS has the 50/50 odds around I-40 which seems reasonable. Obviously, I'm praying hard for all snow.

Yeah the forecast differences are with the two pieces of energy. Does the northern stream block or does the WAA punch through the line? (football metaphor)

Southeast Tennessee, we'll definitely take this 12Z GFS. Looks like mostly snow and several inches of it.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

When you view it as 2 separate systems..1) overunning snow looks almost locked..amounts will vary. 2) the second piece, is at the time frame where models have some divergence in evolution (old saying " we're at x hr where models lose it, to bring it back as we get closer". Where ever those 2 overlap is going to be in for a potentially historic ride.

I don't like waiting on a second system west of the Apps.  Too many times I have seen that slide into the Carolinas during previous storms.  Need a 0z Euro solution or AIFS look.  Fortunately, the GFS is well...the 12z GFS.  There is a reason it scores poorly. The 12z GEM is trending south.  And as always...read Jeff's post above.  

[Carvers Gap]

This is reminding more of the 93-94 storm @John1122.  Lots of ice and snow in Knoxville followed by cold temps.  I40-74 was down to like one lane for a few days due to that.  What do you think?  

[John1122]

13z NBM after the 12z suite was ingested I assume.

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is reminding more of the 93-94 storm @John1122.  Lots of ice and snow in Knoxville followed by cold temps.  I40-74 was down to like one lane for a few days due to that.  What do you think?  

Do you mean Jan of 1994?

[Silas Lang]

Honestly with the CMC being on the fringe of the snow line in the middle of the state (I-40ish) and the GFS going south of I-40, you have to think as a whole, TN is in a pretty good spot for a big hit. So long as things dont trend too much in one direction. 

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Crazy sleet totals on the Canadian that run. I would love to see the sleet accumulation maps over the region.

5-7" band of sleet stretching over a good portion of Tenn.  Never seen anything like it!

[John1122]

13z NBM ice. Bad across the Southern Valley but not world ending. I assume there's also sleet accumulations in there somewhere.

 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Do you mean Jan of 1994?

Yes.  That is the one you had to remind me of that time...ice to snow and back to ice in Knoxville.  

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

13z NBM after the 12z suite was ingested I assume.

Impressive.  I bet that 6z GFS run went in recently....but that is huge from this range.

[John1122]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Yes.  That is the one you had to remind me of that time...ice to snow and back to ice in Knoxville.  

That was a potent arctic front, we had cold air in place ahead of it, which caused freezing rain, the front raced through the precip shield  there was a burst of heavy snow, but areas along 40 stayed zr longer. There was about an inch or so of frozen qpf total. It was faster than this system overall.

[John1122]

GEFS once again in major disagreement with its OP. When it did this yesterday, the OP then corrected (probably over corrected) back towards the OP.  Through 120 the GEFS has around double the QPF across our area vs the GFS OP.

 

[John1122]

The wild sleet totals Carver's referenced. Talk about a block of ice.

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yes.  That is the one you had to remind me of that time...ice to snow and back to ice in Knoxville.  

That was the one that buried Kentucky. 10" far SEKY to 2 Feet North. Freezing rain to snow at my house near Pennington gap. 7" Snow.

[Bigbald]

John (or anyone else with a long memory), what was the weather like in the days that followed 93' bliz and 96' bliz?  I was a teenager, it seems like it was pretty cold after 96, and warmed fairly quick after 93.

[dwagner88]

1 minute ago, Bigbald said:

John (or anyone else with a long memory), what was the weather like in the days that followed 93' bliz and 96' bliz?  I was a teenager, it seems like it was pretty cold after 96, and warmed fairly quick after 93.

The snow melted fairly quickly in sunny spots after 1993. After 1996, it was frigid. That's the only subzero temperature at KCHA in my lifetime. There were piles of sleet in the mall parking lot until March.

[John1122]

Just now, Bigbald said:

John (or anyone else with a long memory), what was the weather like in the days that followed 93' bliz and 96' bliz?  I was a teenager, it seems like it was pretty cold after 96, and warmed fairly quick after 93.

30s/10s for the week after Jan 1996. Even colder after the Feb 2nd 1996 massive winter storm that this one reminds me of. 

After the blizzard it was very cold for March, but only for a day after it departed. By 3/16 it was back in the upper 40s.