January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Ji]

Euro out to 4 hours. Very little ticks do far

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

Euro starting. Most important run since Jan 2016. @stormtracker, lead the way.

I think you’re right on this one. We’re past where Feb 20th failed 

[WxMan1]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Just a couple of observations. After the storm the models are showing a pretty dangerous artic outbreak. Like pipe bursting stuff. That cold is legit. Straight out of the arctic. 

This is also going to be a historic ice storm somewhere in the south. Over an ich of QPF as rain falling into sub 20 degree temps is horrific. I have seen it once before. And it is no joke. 

Just a massive hit to a large part of the country. Historic if it is being modelled accurately. 

The good news, and we've seen it before ...

Snow on th ground, fresh snowpack, will definitely help with radiational cooling and enhance the risk for sub-zero min temps assuming we can decouple. 

BUT, it can also provide a nice layer of insulation to prevent the intense cold from seeping in the subflooring. Let's hope so anyway!

[Ji]

Just a couple of observations. After the storm the models are showing a pretty dangerous artic outbreak. Like pipe bursting stuff. That cold is legit. Straight out of the arctic. 
This is also going to be a historic ice storm somewhere in the south. Over an ich of QPF as rain falling into sub 20 degree temps is horrific. I have seen it once before. And it is no joke. 
Just a massive hit to a large part of the country. Historic if it is being modelled accurately. 

Larry cosgrove just peed his pants

[Weather Will]

WB EURO AI continues to tick south.

[bncho]

Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution

[Nomz]

Euro AIFS south of 12z but north of 18z

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution

Probably not. Ain’t going to know for sure for another 2-3 days honestly.

[Dabuckeyes]

Something to watch. Do the AI models lag in the trends of the physical models. Just seems like they are 12 hours behind with what the other models are doing. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution

Might just a little early to call that, imo. It is just early Tuesday! 

 

[Amped]

This is for all the great setups in the past that have been ruined by a stupid stubborn baja cutoff that refuses to eject into the flow.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution

We’re starting to converge on a solution for part one. That was up until 0z a point of contention with the SW coming east. Now that’s more or less settled (hopefully) and we get to see what type of storm rolls east. We still got a couple days to go before we get to the solution with that one 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EURO AI

I don’t think people realize how ridiculous this AIFS output is in the grand scheme of things. This is a crazy output that would certainly lend credence to a potential for 1 inch or more of QPF for a large portion of this sub forum. Even if you don’t get 1 inch of precip from this set up you can still walk away with 8+ inches of snow. Incredible set up. We have brewing right here. Good times  

[bncho]

Just now, Dabuckeyes said:

Something to watch. Do the AI models lag in the trends of the physical models. Just seems like they are 12 hours behind with what the other models are doing. 

That's actually a really good observation. Physics models shifted south from 0z to 18z before shifting back north. AI models starting shifting south 12z to possibly 6z?

[LVblizzard]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution

I’ve seen this before. The models like to troll us like this. By Thursday they will all show entirely different solutions again.

[Ji]

Euro AIFS south of 12z but north of 18z

No not true

[stormtracker]

Nothing jumping out yet...status quo

[Ji]

The Ai is in a free fall. Lost an inch of qpf since 6z

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

The Ai is in a free fall. Lost an inch of qpf since 6z

@mappy

[Ji]

I don’t think people realize how ridiculous this AIFS output is in the grand scheme of things. This is a crazy output that would certainly lend credence to a potential for 1 inch or more of QPF for a large portion of this sub forum. Even if you don’t get 1 inch of precip from this set up you can still walk away with 8+ inches of snow. Incredible set up. We have brewing right here. Good times  

No this is a ridiculous output

[Weather Will]

WB EURO AI 0Z compared to 18Z.

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

No this is a ridiculous output

C'mon man not now...

[Snowman.]

Pivotal finally updated the UKMet snow map 

[stormtracker]

Steady as she goes..ass hair noise level differences...basically the same

[stormtracker]

105...very good look so far...

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Pivotal finally updated the UKMet snow map 

Oh, that looks just HORRIBLE! (sarcasm folks) 

[ravensrule]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

Oh, that looks just HORRIBLE! (sarcasm folks) 

We need the Kuchie. 

[Ji]

105...very good look so far...

Please be accurate

[bncho]

Okay, I'm at hr 93 on the Euro, looks pretty damn good IMO

[stormtracker]