January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Don't be so sure. The latest GFS and EURO both came south and colder than the previous run.

I’m more talking the jump to a miller B that sends a surface low to East Tennessee. GFS up until yesterday never sniffed that. I expect most modeling to tick south today and CAD areas to tick a bit colder just because that happens with every CAD storm. 

[olafminesaw]

33 minutes ago, gman said:

Let’s pray the NAM is correct. The last thing NC and SC needs is a crippling ice storm. We still have scars from Helene. 

I don't really think the NAM is better in that regard. A dry slot would mean hours of freezing drizzle during the first half of the storm that would otherwise be sleet with heavier rates/a more southerly track. In fact, I am convinced that is the only way a crippling ice storm will play out East of the Apps

[olafminesaw]

This is a communications nightmare for news outlets. Could be 5" of sleet and minimal icing or half an inch of ice. The 5" of sleet is more likely, but when some models are spitting out significant icing it's hard to ignore knowing that it's better to be prepared for the worst 

[BooneWX]

6z euro comes in colder and further south. With that one done and the overnight modeling, this is all I got:

 

NC: enjoy the glacier 

Upstate: I genuinely will be praying for yall 

[olafminesaw]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Who produces and issues these maps?

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Who produces and issues these maps?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php

[olafminesaw]

Seems reasonable for now. I still think we get mostly sleet in the triad, but better to prepare for ice if it's a coinflip

[WiseWeather]

6z euro comes in colder and further south. With that one done and the overnight modeling, this is all I got:
 
NC: enjoy the glacier 
Upstate: I genuinely will be praying for yall 

.

[PackGrad05]

It is turning into a traditional cad signature (maybe slightly stronger) that has an eastern edge oriented sw to ne roughly parallel with 85.
These events favor a mix for central NC and more rain I95 east. There will be a very large gradient over wake with some parts of wake having the possibility of limited ice. Possibility, not guaranteed at this point.
Not surprisingly, it appears to be trending more and more toward a climatologically favored solution.  Which was my fear 2-3 days ago when the models showed the snow anomalies.  

Regardless of the reason whether it is strength of the high or the low scouring out the mid and lower levels, this is not the way central NC gets a big snowstorm.


.

[olafminesaw]

Chance of major ice impacts

[Snow dog]

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Chance of major ice impacts

Surprised they have the percentages that low…

[Blacksburg Coach]

[Blacksburg Coach]

[Blacksburg Coach]

Euro Ensemble Range

[Buddy1987]

@Blacksburg Coachnight and day difference there between GFS and EURO. Those are FRAM averages too which is even more significant when we're talking about accrual/accretion.

[olafminesaw]

Diabolical sounding for Raleigh 

[WestCentrlVA]

16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Blacksburg Coachnight and day difference there between GFS and EURO. Those are FRAM averages too which is even more significant when we're talking about accrual/accretion.

Is it true that the Euro does not have the same capability to depict sleet as the GFS? If so it would be best to go off soundings for precip type. Right?

[WNC_Fort]

I know one thing for sure after this last week. Models can’t be trusted for anything other than a threat detection more than 3 days out. Heck, we’re under 3 days and it’s still a bit up in the air. 
 

Other lesson learned. Don’t listen to folks saying that there’s “no way that low can cut up through that strong high pressure”. 

[wake4est]

WRAL's first forecast with numbers is exactly the 06z Euro.

[SUNYGRAD]

On 1/20/2026 at 6:11 PM, BornAgain13 said:

Soundings are only as good as the model.  I would try to look at different soundings over various models.  

 

 

[ADB83]

Sigh. Any chance we can avoid the freezing rain and just get rain or no? I feel like in Winston the CAD is locked in and just going to get buried in the worst possible winter weather 

[wake4est]

48 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Surprised they have the percentages that low…

There are actual definitions for each "level" of severity

 

[Buddy1987]

7 minutes ago, WestCentrlVA said:

Is it true that the Euro does not have the same capability to depict sleet as the GFS? If so it would be best to go off soundings for precip type. Right?

It's low level superiority for being able to handle cad well ranks toward the bottom to my knowledge/recollection. It doesn't have the same topographical nuances built into it like the NAM or even the GGEM does. Met can correct me if i'm wrong of course but it tends to smooth things out more so than some of the other computer models. 

[UpStateCAD]

GSP experimental product.    Not nearly as bullish as some of the models are depicting.

Probabilistic Winter Precip Forecasts

[BornAgain13]

Blacksburg putting ?? Marks around here. They are unsure of how much ice/snow. Battleground area @Buddy1987 @Disc yall may be good according to this!

 

[Brick Tamland]

8 hours ago, ADB83 said:

The GFS caved let’s face it, although Euro not great at CAD so there’s the matter of what type of frozen precipitation is going to fall. But the GFS sucks compared to the Euro, we knew it would cave, and it did lol 

The Euro went from 15 inches if snow here to freezing rain in 24 hours only 3 days out. It sucks just as much.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Blacksburg putting ?? Marks around here. They are unsure of how much ice/snow. Battleground area @Buddy1987 @Disc yall may be good according to this!

 

The best part about this is @Disc literally could've been the one that created the write up hahahaha

[BornAgain13]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

The best part about this is @Disc literally could've been the one that created the write up hahahaha

Haha! Very true. Hopefully so!

[Blacksburg Coach]

10 minutes ago, WestCentrlVA said:

Is it true that the Euro does not have the same capability to depict sleet as the GFS? If so it would be best to go off soundings for precip type. Right?

It has the FRAM maps, that is supposed to predict ice accretion on elevated surfaces.