Jan 17-18 Sunday Funday Storm

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I think everyone in the triangle would take that 3-5” stripe but until euro shows it I still think precip will be further east

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

I think everyone in the triangle would take that 3-5” stripe but until euro shows it I still think precip will be further east

Hope we'll see the Euro start looking better and more like the GFS today.

[wncsnow]

AIGFS moved east slightly. 

[olafminesaw]

Thermals were actually a touch colder this run on the GFS

[NorthHillsWx]

Once again, for like the 7th or 8th model cycle in a row, I still think the triangle is in a good spot. I am absolutely discrediting NAM to the point of tossing it almost entirely. You’ve got wiggle room on gfs being in the middle of the sweet spot and just need NW ticks on euro. That’s not a bad spot inside 3 days. 

[WNC_Fort]

Alright. I’m out y’all. More foothill heartbreak and I just can’t do it anymore.

[NorthHillsWx]

I swear and i actually am getting to the point of believing this but until we have anything with southern stream interaction i just don’t think the foothills can score with any of this NS crap

[Upstate Tiger]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I swear and i actually am getting to the point of believing this but until we have anything with southern stream interaction i just don’t think the foothills can score with any of this NS crap

Nino should resolve this next winter but will we get the cold? Still think we score one before this winter is over.

[NorthHillsWx]

AI GFS looks beautiful but it’s fools gold, BL temps remain absolutely torched. Since yesterday I think the goalposts have changed. I believe someone is chasing a 1-3” stripe vs yesterday when 5-6” seemed possible somewhere outside the mountains. Hate being negative but that seems the most reasonable call at this juncture. 

[stormwatcherJ]

Not quite cold enough for snow on Sunday, so we'll get a little cold rain. Then the next few days will have lows around 15 degrees. Oh, North Carolina winter! 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS ensemble mean.

[eyewall]

Can we beat the half inch during the pre Christmas event?  LOL

[wncsnow]

Just now, eyewall said:

Can we beat the half inch during the pre Christmas event?  LOL

We have seen 2.5 inches of snow in 4 years.

.625 per season! We love decimals here in the foothills.

[lilj4425]

8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Can we beat the half inch during the pre Christmas event?  LOL

At least you have seen snow. I don’t even remember what it looks like.

[Louise]

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Get a feeling the 12z NAM is going to be a hit of epic proportions 

More snow for the triangle, please

[BooneWX]

Oh dear 

[dtgvl75]

The last time we saw 1" of snow at GSP was 1/16/2022. 4 years tomorrow! I grew up in the 80's and don't remember ever going more than a year without seeing something.

[SnowDawg]

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We have seen 2.5 inches of snow in 4 years.

.625 per season! We love decimals here in the foothills.

The longer it goes on the more it feels like something is broken in a way we aren’t going to get back. A historical average of 4-8 per year and having never had a year on record without at least a trace, to suddenly go almost 3 full years with none. And it would be 4 full years with none if not for a couple inches of wintry mix slop last January.

[Brick Tamland]

UK is rain. 

[Upstate Tiger]

5 minutes ago, dtgvl75 said:

The last time we saw 1" of snow at GSP was 1/16/2022. 4 years tomorrow! I grew up in the 80's and don't remember ever going more than a year without seeing something.

Grew up in the upstate.  We had a snow drought from the March 73 storm - 77 record January with no measurable.  From 77 on, the late 70’s rocked.  Otherwise, you are correct.  80/81, 83/84, 84/85, 85/86 had smaller events but measurable snow.  Otherwise, the other years were epic snow years.   Really started to decline in regularity after 88 IMO. 

[eyewall]

[Brick Tamland]

Euro AI isn't good.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro AI isn't good.

I guess 44 degrees and rain is better than 33 and rain though? 

[NorthHillsWx]

Canadian all rain

[NGTim]

We need to set it free and if it loves us it will come back.  I don’t remember many that hit, that we didn’t loose 2 or 3 days before they came back.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, NGTim said:

We need to set it free and if it loves us it will come back.  I don’t remember many that hit, that we didn’t loose 2 or 3 days before they came back.

Losing the storm is different than not having cold air to work with 

[NGTim]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Losing the storm is different than not having cold air to work with 

Valid point

[eyewall]

The Euro doesn't see a neutral or negative tilt and is later with the energy hence the weaker and southeast solution. 

[eyewall]

[BooneWX]

Euro says we’re all taking an L