Jan 17-18 Sunday Funday Storm

[DeltaPilot]

Ill take the NAM!  Timing will be an issue, hoping for earlier start so maybe we can get some of it to stick. In the bullseye there S-SW of ATL.  

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

NAM had BL temp issues for about everyone even those areas in that snow footprint. It was also earlier which does not help as it doesn’t give enough time for arctic air to bleed over mountains. It’s hour 70+ NAM so I wouldn’t look too deep into it but just another in a long line of growing thermal issues trending for everyone outside the mountains 

Really hope this doesn't fall apart 3 days out when yesterday things were looking pretty good. 

[BornAgain13]

NAM must of had a glitch issue around Hr 81. The precip dissappear but then came back lol

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Really hope this doesn't fall apart 3 days out when yesterday things were looking pretty good. 

Oh don’t worry. It will. It always does.

[BornAgain13]

The icon and rgem wont make many friends. 

[wncsnow]

RDPS shifted east slightly. West trend seems over for now 

[olafminesaw]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The icon and rgem wont make many friends. 

RGEM tilts neutral too late and too far north so it's a late bloomer, best precip over VA by the time the cold air arrives. Axis of best dynamics over DC 

[Tony Sisk]

1 hour ago, CentralNC said:

James Spann weighs in

https://x.com/spann/status/2011784584837358010?s=20

I agree with this.  Unfortunately, the formula for snow in the SouthEast just isn't there.

[lilj4425]

9 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

I agree with this.  Unfortunately, the formula for snow in the SouthEast just isn't there.

I miss the days when it would just snow here and we didn’t need 5,731 things to go right for it to. GSP hasn’t seen an inch of snow now in 1,459 days. Yeesh.

[Brick Tamland]

Yesterday the GFS had around 6 inches of snow here. So far today it looks like I'll be lucky to see any snow and have cold rain instead. GFS is running now. Let's see if it folds.

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

I miss the days when it would just snow here and we didn’t need 5,731 things to go right for it to. GSP hasn’t seen an inch of snow now in 1,459 days. Yeesh.

This is literally insane. Every year we say it’s going to end

[SnowDawg]

Flatter is the main trend seen so far. Makes sense given the progressive flow and has been the overall theme of the past few years. More times than not flatter, drier, and disorganized wins lately.

[NorthHillsWx]

To me this has been a slow bleed. Yes we had some great runs yesterday with the subpar models but thermals have been trending poorly for days. As others have noted, this isn’t a dynamic strong coastal low, so you’re not just going to wrap cold air in. It will be dynamic cooling we’re relying on and if you start at 38-40 at 10 am you’re in big trouble even if you get the precip 

[NC_hailstorm]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

 

In other words the professionals who get paid for this don't have a clue either,let's just flip a coin then.

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS looks almost identical to 6z so far

[NorthHillsWx]

Maybe a tick west through HR 60

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS looks almost identical to 6z so far

A bit south/more positive tilt through 69, seems to be a step towards the Euro

[BornAgain13]

GFS aint that good...I've got to quit leaning on the GFS so heavily even if it shows what I want it to. The Euro is still the king for a reason. 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Maybe a tick west through HR 60

No.

[NorthHillsWx]

Close your eyes foothills folks 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS still looks the best. 

[olafminesaw]

Continues the trend towards late bloomer. 

[Brick Tamland]

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS is a good run for central and eastern NC/SC

[Brick Tamland]

 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS is not budging with it being all snow for 99% of central and eastern NC.

[eyewall]

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS was a good run for RDU but foothills blanked. Thermals even under the heavy stuff are borderline. It went much more positively tilted early on and was a late bloomer. Really can’t fight the EURO

[neverSnowsLCSC]

Here’s to hoping for some token flakes at the back end at least. not looking like a repeat of last January for us near the coast. 

[Brick Tamland]

Still a decent hit for central and eastern NC.