First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[brooklynwx99]

lol summer (weather wise) sucks balls. we get no legit severe weather and watching my street flood a few times a year does nothing for me. sure, socially it’s more fun 

the tropics are cool at times 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meteorological solitary confinement continues baby. And people wonder why more and more are converting to the warm season. This hobby sucks out loud.

the climate is abandoning the hobby  haha

[brooklynwx99]

also, yeah, the GFS was obv going to be flatter lmao 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

also, yeah, the GFS was obv going to be flatter lmao 

IDK, the vorticity looked pissah at initalization.

[weathafella]

On to football 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ve come to love summer. Really enjoyed this past year. Can’t wait to be back to warm weather, longer days. Really does wonders for mental health 

Yep.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think at this point I just want to fill CT with freshwater and wait for SW winds.

Give it another decade or two…

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

On to football 

Now let me spend a week of watching DT post in Hieroglyphics about how VA is going to double my seasonal in 6 hours, 10 days from now.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol summer (weather wise) sucks balls. we get no legit severe weather and watching my street flood a few times a year does nothing for me. sure, socially it’s more fun 

the tropics are cool at times 

I enjoy the outdoors beach etc. If I could make a living operating a catamaran and serve rum punch I would. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK, the vorticity looked pissah at initalization.

I just knew that little gph kink in Utah was going to f it up

[dendrite]

Watch the euro come in zonked now

[ORH_wxman]

Canadian looks pretty awesome actually. Slower and a bit more dynamic than 00z for most of SNE. Too bad it’s the GGEM. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian looks pretty awesome actually. Slower and a bit more dynamic than 00z for most of SNE. Too bad it’s the GGEM. 

doesn't GGEM rank better than GFS?

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol summer (weather wise) sucks balls. we get no legit severe weather and watching my street flood a few times a year does nothing for me. sure, socially it’s more fun 

the tropics are cool at times 

meh  to is his or her own as the old sayn goes. 

some of us do a lot of outdoor life during the summer that is at best hindered to do so, otherwise cannot be done in winters. 

for these types, about the only redeeming value winter has is the fascination of storminess.   when that is at a premium ...to put it nicely,  the point of it is time-wasting.   and frankly, a lot of delusion and avoidance of obviousness enough to roll eyes needs to happen to deny the futility.  ugh.  no thanks.  makes this journey really pretty bad.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Watch the euro come in zonked now

Waiting on Jerry to report Uncle soon lol

[8611Blizz]

Pardon my ignorance but is all this waffling due to the fast flow of this?  I do see that this thing doesn't stick around on any model.

[weathafella]

Well AI is still steadfast. I don’t give a damn what the op models say with such stability.  No one has given a reason to ignore the AI versions.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

doesn't GGEM rank better than GFS?

Sometimes it surpasses GFS at H5 but it rarely scores a snowier coup. Last time I actually remember them hammering a snowier solution vs other guidance and winning was the 2/2/15 storm.  My guess is both GGEM and RGEM will cave soon. But who knows….stranger things have happened. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Pardon my ignorance but is all this waffling due to the fast flow of this?  I do see that this thing doesn't stick around on any model.

I wonder if's due to CC at all? Anyone have any opinions on that?? @WinterWolf.... @Typhoon Tip??

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes it surpasses GFS at H5 but it rarely scores a snowier coup. Last time I actually remember them hammering a snowier solution vs other guidance and winning was the 2/2/15 storm.  My guess is both GGEM and RGEM will cave soon. But who knows….stranger things have happened. 

I'll never forget the GEM was the first model to catch on to that December 2022 system phasing with the PV lobe and going west just before Xmas....I laughed at it and dismissed initially, but of course it nailed that.

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes it surpasses GFS at H5 but it rarely scores a snowier coup. Last time I actually remember them hammering a snowier solution vs other guidance and winning was the 2/2/15 storm.  My guess is both GGEM and RGEM will cave soon. But who knows….stranger things have happened. 

i'm hoping the Ai models score this one, otherwise ai is overrated!

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if's due to CC at all? Anyone have any opinions on that?? @WinterWolf.... @Typhoon Tip??

it must be on his mind - he keeps bringing it up

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if's due to CC at all? Anyone have any opinions on that?? @WinterWolf.... @Typhoon Tip??

Thanks,  I look forward to skipping the next 12 pages...

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll never forget the GEM was the first model to catch on to that December 2022 system phasing with the PV lobe and going west just before Xmas....I laughed at it and dismissed initially, but of course it nailed that.

Yeah it will nail the solutions that screw us. Surgical precision on dismantling a potential KU setup for us, but when we need it to be right on Sunday, it will fold easier than a cheap suit. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Thanks,  I look forward to skipping the next 12 pages...

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if's due to CC at all? Anyone have any opinions on that?? @WinterWolf.... @Typhoon Tip??

Another edition of Fossil Fuel Fridays

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it will nail the solutions that screw us. Surgical precision on dismantling a potential KU setup for us, but when we need it to be right on Sunday, it will fold easier than a cheap suit. 

I remember I was feeling it...I had already made a blog post that was headlined "Severe Winter Storm Likely Around of Just Before Christmas" on the 15th...then went silent until the next on 12/21 "Mild & Rainy Friday Before Slight Storm Threat Just After Christmas".

Brutal to walk that back.

[Typhoon Tip]

y'all lookin to flog someone or something cuz now your pissed.  but it's your buying in and/or allowing you're moods be yo yoed by this thing.   

probably should work on your dopa dependency with 'blue light' and web access to weather chart thing, ha

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Another edition of Fossil Fuel Fridays

Don’t forget Tobin Tuesdays where we look ahead at the next model fails for the upcoming week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Another edition of Fossil Fuel Fridays

Don't forget that the Fossil Fuel is peer reviewed...there is literature on this so this is fact-sorry, it just is, and that is not debatable-