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Storm potential January 18th-19th


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4 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

I plan on traveling into Manhattan on Sunday.  I'm not altering my plans until something other than GooFuS is on board.  

Even if it snows there would be zero reason to cancel any plans. It takes a ton of snow to slow anything down in the city and that’s not on the table 

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Seems like not much changed overall. The GFS is the strongest western outlier and a model blend would bring a near miss or scraper. Multiple micro-lows and vorticity near the Lakes works against us. The optimal solution involves a vormax near the base of the trof to sharpen it up and involve Gulf moisture. With some ridging out ahead of the trof, that would bring precipitation up the coast and keep a SLP more closely tucked. Otherwise this ends up more offshore.

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9 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Even if it snows there would be zero reason to cancel any plans. It takes a ton of snow to slow anything down in the city and that’s not on the table 

It would be getting into the city that would be the problem, especially via express bus on poorly treated roads.  I'd be adding an additional hour to my trip in travel time.    

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