MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Franklin0529 said: I give you props, you always go down with the sinking ship All the time man. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the time man. and i always give up right before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 18z AIgfs came west 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: 18z AIgfs came west Gfs and gefs also. Slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Lesson of the day and forever-look at 500mb before any surface chart. Positively tilted strung out piece of garbage with vorticity from Toronto to New Orleans results in garbage at the surface most likely shoved way east regardless of how any surface chart and pretty snow map looks. Maybe it still works out for a couple inches, better than nothing. The Pacific needs to slow down and stop flinging endless shortwaves into the US, and we should count ourselves very lucky we got the snow we did in Dec. If somehow it all works out and it did in Dec, I'll be thrilled but more likely than not this regime won't. It's just reality. Any big opportunity will likely come late this month or in Feb like it has the last few winters and in general. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My concern about Saturday is that temperatures in and around NYC will probably be around 34° during the snowfall. Even a GFS-esque burst of snow could result in a coating rather than several inches at such temperatures. That's why my current thinking is a coating to an inch. If temperatures could be a degree or two cooler, it would be easier for the snow to accumulate. Yep hence the other problem. Might be light snow falling for a while but marginal temps means maybe little/no accum in the city, heavier rates and a more consolidated system means better cold air on northerly winds. Likely better where there's some elevation and away from the city but keep expectations in check. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago i said this earlier... u never know anybody could check 3 days before nemo how did the models react? this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 24 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i said this earlier... u never know anybody could check 3 days before nemo how did the models react? this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and Are you 12? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: Are you 12? no i had a deja vu that's all im old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro still ots. Its an outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 47 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i said this earlier... u never know anybody could check 3 days before nemo how did the models react? this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and Probably one of my all time favorite storms. The day before it hit they were forecasting 1-3” my area had between 28-32”! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Prue11 said: Probably one of my all time favorite storms. The day before it hit they were forecasting 1-3” my area had between 28-32”! so can someone check the actual records on how the models behaved? boston got hit hard i remember and long lasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago it was Juno not nemo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago @MJO812is my favorite poster on the board. We see, want and feel things the same way. Stay true to the bitter end! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Irish said: @MJO812is my favorite poster on the board. We see, want and feel things the same way. Stay true to the bitter end! agree with you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The new EURO and EPS still want absolutely nothing at all to do with Sunday, even further off shore. They still have some light snow for Saturday, an inch or so. Given the setup, I think the EPS/EURO is the most realistic for Sat-Sun. That’s my forecast, sticking by it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new EURO and EPS still want absolutely nothing at all to do with Sunday, even further off shore. They still have some light snow for Saturday, an inch or so. Given the setup, I think the EPS/EURO is the most realistic for Sat-Sun. That’s my forecast, sticking by it I'm pretty sure it's actually closer (both OP and EPS) at 18Z, but either way it still misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 45 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: it was Juno not nemo Nemo was February 2013 Juno was 2015. Both were great but Nemo dropped more snow for my area. Juno dropped around 2’ in central suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago https://www.weather.gov/okx/blizzard_01262715 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Jan 2015 blizzard warning. Good times 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new EURO and EPS still want absolutely nothing at all to do with Sunday, even further off shore. They still have some light snow for Saturday, an inch or so. Given the setup, I think the EPS/EURO is the most realistic for Sat-Sun. That’s my forecast, sticking by it Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 4 minutes ago Share Posted 4 minutes ago 1 hour ago, Prue11 said: Nemo was February 2013 Juno was 2015. Both were great but Nemo dropped more snow for my area. Juno dropped around 2’ in central suffolk both were lackluster here, but nemo was better because we didn't expect much to begin with; jan 2015 they pulled the rug out at the last minute. 2015 was a rather disappointing year out this way, but still better than recent years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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