Storm potential January 18th-19th

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

I give you props, you always go down with the sinking ship

All the time man. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the time man. 

and i always give up right before

[Jersey_Snowhole]

18z AIgfs came west

 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

18z AIgfs came west

 

Gfs and gefs also. Slowly. 

[jm1220]

Lesson of the day and forever-look at 500mb before any surface chart. Positively tilted strung out piece of garbage with vorticity from Toronto to New Orleans results in garbage at the surface most likely shoved way east regardless of how any surface chart and pretty snow map looks. Maybe it still works out for a couple inches, better than nothing. The Pacific needs to slow down and stop flinging endless shortwaves into the US, and we should count ourselves very lucky we got the snow we did in Dec. If somehow it all works out and it did in Dec, I'll be thrilled but more likely than not this regime won't. It's just reality. Any big opportunity will likely come late this month or in Feb like it has the last few winters and in general.

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

My concern about Saturday is that temperatures in and around NYC will probably be around 34° during the snowfall. Even a GFS-esque burst of snow could result in a coating rather than several inches at such temperatures. That's why my current thinking is a coating to an inch. If temperatures could be a degree or two cooler, it would be easier for the snow to accumulate.

Yep hence the other problem. Might be light snow falling for a while but marginal temps means maybe little/no accum in the city, heavier rates and a more consolidated system means better cold air on northerly winds. Likely better where there's some elevation and away from the city but keep expectations in check. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

i said this earlier... u never know

 

anybody could check 3 days before nemo how did the models react?

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and

[Nibor]

24 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i said this earlier... u never know

 

anybody could check 3 days before nemo how did the models react?

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and

Are you 12?

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Are you 12?

no i had a deja vu that's all im old. 

[MJO812]

Euro still ots. Its an outlier right now