Storm potential January 17th-18th

[The 4 Seasons]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The RGEM had the best QPF forecast for the January 18th event while the ECMWF was a close second. The EC-AI had 0.39".

hey Don, where did this come from? did you make it?

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

hey Don, where did this come from? did you make it?

I made it from the 24-hour Pivotal weather QPF amounts.

[495weatherguy]

I received at least 3 inches.  
 

Melville. 
 

 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyone has any snowfall totals for Jan 18th ONLY, let me know, ill be doing maps for yesterdays system. 

These are the snowfall totals for the Jan 17th over performer. This only for the Saturday Jan 17th event  Thanks to everyone who sent me reports, they were useful and i tried to include most of them if they could fit. 

You can always find all these maps along with CT and SNE here

Lower Northeast

Tri-State Area

3.8” in Syosset.  Should be in the OKX PNS as well. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyone has any snowfall totals for Jan 18th ONLY, let me know, ill be doing maps for yesterdays system. 

These are the snowfall totals for the Jan 17th over performer. This only for the Saturday Jan 17th event  Thanks to everyone who sent me reports, they were useful and i tried to include most of them if they could fit. 

You can always find all these maps along with CT and SNE here

Lower Northeast

Tri-State Area

2.6" North Smithtown (includes snow that fell Sunday 1/18 through early Monday morning).  Saturdays total was 0.3"

Season total is 17.0"

 

[NorthShoreWx]

11 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

3.8” in Syosset.  Should be in the OKX PNS as well. 

What was your total for both days?

[The 4 Seasons]

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Comparison of the 1/19 6z and 12z GFS runs:

6z:

12z:

 

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Nice improvement on the GGEM. 

i think youre in the wrong thread, i do that all the time lol

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

i think youre in the wrong thread, i do that all the time lol

Yes. You're right. Hopefully, the moderators can move my misplaced posts to the correct thread.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. You're right. Hopefully, the moderators can move my misplaced posts to the correct thread.

you can always just delete and repost, thats what i do.

thank you everyone for the reports, ill be working on that map today and tonight, be done by tomorrow AM

[winterwx21]

After getting 6 inches of snow from the three rounds this weekend, I'm up to 18.5" for the winter. We're well on our way to our first above average snowfall winter in quite awhile. 

[snywx]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

you can always just delete and repost, thats what i do.

thank you everyone for the reports, ill be working on that map today and tonight, be done by tomorrow AM

1/18 - 2.8” 

Middletown NY

[495weatherguy]

36 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

3.8” in Syosset.  Should be in the OKX PNS as well. 

I believe I received closer to 4 inches in Melville,  but I didn’t measure.  Going by eyeball, I think your measurement is close to what I received from the entire event

[mgerb]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

After getting 6 inches of snow from the three rounds this weekend, I'm up to 18.5" for the winter. We're well on our way to our first above average snowfall winter in quite awhile. 

14.6" on the season just over the river in Somerset. 5" OTG this morning, with 5.7" in total over the past 2 days. I'll be working on compiling NJ snow totals for these two separate events that we'll post here: http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/?section=menu&target=wint2526snowtotals  Since the 1/18 event started before most morning ob times in 1/18, it will take some effort to split out the 1/17 and 1/18 snowfalls. 

[uofmiami]

34 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

What was your total for both days?

4.8"  1" on Saturday & 3.8" on Sunday

[steve392]

A compacted 4" on flat roof of cars today since Saturday s storm.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyone has any snowfall totals for Jan 18th ONLY, let me know, ill be doing maps for yesterdays system. 

These are the snowfall totals for the Jan 17th over performer. This only for the Saturday Jan 17th event  Thanks to everyone who sent me reports, they were useful and i tried to include most of them if they could fit. 

You can always find all these maps along with CT and SNE here

Lower Northeast

Tri-State Area

2.9 inches for yesterday. Highland Mills Orange County NY. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

After getting 6 inches of snow from the three rounds this weekend, I'm up to 18.5" for the winter. We're well on our way to our first above average snowfall winter in quite awhile. 

2020/21 was the last above average season pretty much forum wide. 38 and change in Central Park we had 59 inches in Orange County. 

[Kaner587]

North shore of Nassau cty microclimate ftw.  Difference between lie south and northern blvd north is extremely impressive. Probably just a small diff in temps can account for this

[NorthShoreWx]

Melted water equivalent for the weekend here was 0.50".  Includes the 0.3" snow on Saturday and the 2.6" on Sunday.

Roughly 6:1 ratio across both events.

[donsutherland1]

Tarrytown, NY from early this afternoon:

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Surprised you're that low-BDR is closer to 20 inches STD

 

20 hours ago, qg_omega said:

All weekend?  Local screw zone?

Parts of Fairfield county have been doing better than New Haven county this year so far.

This weekend I picked up .5 early Saturday. Then another 1” Sunday morning. The evening round gave me 1.5”. Marginal temperatures for accumulation and variable rates can result in differences from one county to another. So some of the snow was lost to melting.

My main events before this weekend were 3.5” and 5.5” and 1.0” for 10.0”. This weekend brought me up to 13.0” on the season. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Snowfall totals for the Jan 18-19th system. Thanks to everyone who sent me a report, i tried to use most of them if i could fit them in. All these maps and more for the 25-26 season will always be up on the site, i may need to delete from here at some point for storage. Thanks!

Lower Northeast

Tri-State Area

[RU848789]

Quick post-mortem on the Saturday and Sunday snowfalls around here - I usually do these for the Philly-NJ-NYC region so thought I'd post one here. Basically, the models did a lousy job in the 2+ days out timeframe with little consistency and most being wrong, showing maybe 1-2" N of 78 on Saturday and nada south of there and showing maybe 1-2" for the coast and towards 95 on Sunday, with very little NW of 95. The forecasts prior to 2 days out were similarly underdone for most compared to what occurred.

Fortunately, the models did finally move toward what we saw and the NWS forecasts (and other forecasts) about 18 hours before the start of each event (see the two NWS forecasts below) were generally pretty good relative to what actually occurred, as shown in the two snowfall maps below, with a few exceptions.

First, on Saturday, the forecast for 2-4"N of 78 and well NW of 95 and S of 78 did well, but the snow from the clipper ended up being 1-3" for most of the 95 corridor, which has been predicted to get <1" - more cold air moved in with the precip along 95 keeping it as accumulating snow instead of white rain or a mix. Second, the forecast was for 2-4/3-5" for NENJ, NYC, LI and the Hudson Valley, but those areas generally only got 1-3" (due to less precip falling vs. what was expected). The other modest miss was on Sunday where the NWS forecast was for 1-3" for far NWNJ, the Poconos and most of EPA while the outcome was 3-5" for most of that area - most of the models were showing less precip due to being further from the coastal low.

FYI, we got 2.2" on Saturday and 1.7/2.4" in rounds 1/2 on Sunday for 4.1" total and 6.3" for the weekend.  Up to 17.5" for the season.