WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 05:33 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:33 PM could this cut!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:40 PM Euro is further east than 6z and all of the other models. Kicker is also faster than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Wednesday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:44 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is further east than 6z and all of the other models. Kicker is also faster than other models. How are you out that far already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 05:47 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:47 PM 2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: How are you out that far already? it has a few inches for saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM Euro has nothing for Sunday. So here's where we are: GFS has big storm (won't happen) CMC has a light-moderate event UKMET has a light event ICON has a light-moderate event Either way, almost all models have light snow on Saturday. But the antecedent airmass is very warm so I'd only expect accumulation inland. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:51 PM 6 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: How are you out that far already? Stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Wednesday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:52 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Stormvista Weather bell suxs I’m at hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 05:54 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:54 PM 3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Euro has nothing for Sunday. So here's where we are: GFS has big storm (won't happen) CMC has a light-moderate event UKMET has a light event ICON has a light-moderate event Either way, almost all models have light snow on Saturday. But the antecedent airmass is very warm so I'd only expect accumulation inland. i'm annoying and a bigger weather feen than you but for the love of God, can you take a break? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:55 PM Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'm annoying and a bigger weather feen than you but for the love of God, can you take a break? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Wednesday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:21 PM Wait for tonight/tomorrow's miss to get on out of here before taking any solutions for Sun/Mon seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Wednesday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:27 PM 32 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'm annoying and a bigger weather feen than you but for the love of God, can you take a break? That's actually a reasonable post from him-notes what each model has and also notes it's warm for Sat for accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 06:40 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 06:40 PM 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That's actually a reasonable post from him-notes what each model has and also notes it's warm for Sat for accums except he posts GFS (won't happen) nobody knows he's just trying to rile things up! We all know where we stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted Wednesday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:41 PM Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: except he posts GFS (won't happen) nobody knows he's just trying to rile things up! We all know where we stand ... so who's gonna tell him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Wednesday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:48 PM 52 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'm annoying and a bigger weather feen than you but for the love of God, can you take a break? Arguing with yourself here? I've always been of the belief you two are the same person. The Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde of the NYC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Wednesday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:14 PM There is an axiom on these boards that it's wise to go with the least snowy model in the mid-range. So that would be the 12z ECMWF or 12z ICON. Seems reasonable to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Wednesday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:56 PM The current GFS 12z has the look of a 5-8" snowfall in NYC region and 10-15" in eastern New England, are the Pats playing on Sunday? Very cold Friday, somewhat milder Saturday, but whatever snow would fall seems likely to stick almost from onset as temperatures plunge into deep freeze Sunday night. In fact the rest of January looks like it would average about 7-10 F below normal and that would drop the anomaly from present levels near +3 to an end result near -3 to -4. Getting a snow pack established Sunday would help to drop those anomalies too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Wednesday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:55 PM The 18z NAM adjusted from 12z to look more ECMWF-like than GFS-like. That's not a strong start to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Wednesday at 09:01 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:01 PM Anyone actually believing the outlier op GFS is just asking for extreme disappointment. Its own ensemble (GEFS) says it’s off its rocker. The EURO op, EURO AI and EPS look absolutely nothing at all like it for Sat-Sun 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted Wednesday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:02 PM 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: The current GFS 12z has the look of a 5-8" snowfall in NYC region and 10-15" in eastern New England, are the Pats playing on Sunday? 20z kickoff Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Wednesday at 09:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:04 PM there isn't a single eps member that has a gfs track 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 09:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:10 PM 15 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 18z NAM adjusted from 12z to look more ECMWF-like than GFS-like. That's not a strong start to 18z. Long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 09:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:10 PM Watch this little wave also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Wednesday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:12 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Watch this little wave also Yes snow on Saturday is more likely at this point than Sunday or Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Wednesday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:13 PM 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: there isn't a single eps member that has a gfs track There aren't any GEPS or GEFS members either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:13 PM Just now, eduggs said: Yes snow on Saturday is more likely at this point than Sunday or Monday. Icon is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Wednesday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:14 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:16 PM Just now, snowman19 said: Long shot but this is far from the solution. Having the PNA on our side is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Wednesday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:22 PM 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: There aren't any GEPS or GEFS members either. 18Z GFS will likely look OTS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Wednesday at 09:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:23 PM You don't want shortwave troffing (concave up) northeast of the vortmax at the base of the trof. That's what sabotages the coastal threat on the 12z ECMWF and that's that the 18z NAM/ICON shifted more towards. By comparison, the 12z GFS had subtle shortwave ridging (concave down) over NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:24 PM 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 18Z GFS will likely look OTS Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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