2026 Foothills thread

[BooneWX]

Guys I’m going to be really negative this week so I apologize in advance. Partly because im in ill believe it when I see it on the ground mode, but I’m also going to generate good mojo by telling Mother Nature she’s not capable of pulling it off. 

[strongwxnc]

Underground forecast has updated since the 12z runs for MBY. lol



.

[SnowDawg]

My thinking is that we all should’ve known better than to fall for a handful of GFS/NAM runs but we did anyway. Outside of that I actually think today’s event was fairly well modeled. South/Central GA appeared to be the bullseye at a decent lead time and it proved true. That being said I’ll absolutely temper my expectations, but if the EuroAI/Euro/EPS are all in as we move forward then there ain’t gonna be no stopping my excitement lol.

[calculus1]

I think it’s interesting how cold chasing moisture has no shot to work in the foothills, but it can work out for a quick pasting for anywhere from Winston-Salem on eastward. This isn’t even a bittercast; it’s just a statement of fact. If the cold is not present when the moisture arrives, downsloping will accompany the incoming cold air and dry up any residual moisture that be present. Cold chasing moisture also works in the Midwest and plains because the downsloping doesn’t occur there either.


.

[WNC_Fort]

18z GFS shows my concern. Suppression city.

edit: ends up not TOO bad. But, still the main thing I’m concerned about

[buckeyefan1]

6 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

18z GFS shows my concern. Suppression city.

What suppression 

[WXNewton]

15 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

18z GFS shows my concern. Suppression city.

edit: ends up not TOO bad. But, still the main thing I’m concerned about

At this stage I'd say storm sign is there and let's focus on ensembles, these runs are definitely going to change North and south this far out, but signal looks great.

[BooneWX]

Good or bad runs, it doesn’t matter with this upcoming storm - the gfs can’t be valued in any depiction. It’s as useful as the hrrr at 48 hrs.

[BooneWX]

Now here’s some guidance that is appropriate for injecting hope


.

[WNC_Fort]

Hmmm

[Ernest T Bass]

4 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Guys I’m going to be really negative this week so I apologize in advance. Partly because im in ill believe it when I see it on the ground mode, but I’m also going to generate good mojo by telling Mother Nature she’s not capable of pulling it off. 

I did my part; washed both vehicles today.  That should help bring on some kind of precipitation.

[wncsnow]

I'm going to take a bit of a different approach to next weekend. I'm going to (try) not to get too high or low on each model runs and rely on ensembles until we get to Wednesday or so. We just need to keep the signal until about then and mix in some big OP runs. 

[BornAgain13]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I'm going to take a bit of a different approach to next weekend. I'm going to (try) not to get too high or low on each model runs and rely on ensembles until we get to Wednesday or so. We just need to keep the signal until about then and mix in some big OP runs. 

This is a great way to go about it!

[BooneWX]

Do not get excited Boone, do not get excited Boone. You’ve been hurt too many times.


.

[calculus1]

From NWS GSP:

“As for the even further out potential system for the weekend, model
guidance keeps the high pressure parked over the central part of the
country and eventually makes its way into the area. There is much
discrepancy and uncertainty if the frontal boundary is able to make
anything of the weak moisture return. Friday and Saturday could see
a mix of precip but again, its too far out. There is a possibility
for a wintry mix as the transition zone and colder air move in. A
few of the individual models show a signal for snow, but there is
still much uncertainty. Any shift north or south of the potential
boundary could be the difference in rain, snow, or nothing at all.
And as this location has seen again and again, it`s all a matter of
whether or not the cold air can even make it in time. Will continue
to monitor as this system is going to change this far out.”

So many important caveats in that discussion…


.

[BooneWX]

What sucks: most AI guidance being an ice storm

What doesn’t suck: Google DeepMind (#1 model), says WNC gets Dec 2018 redo

[wncsnow]

Ice storm looks like the likely outcome looking at the AI models. We need that high to trend stronger and  quicker.

[WNC_Fort]

Last significant ice storm would be 2002? Funny because they used to happen a lot more. Personally open to any significant winter weather event but obviously rooting for a big snow.

[Met1985]

I'd be very hesitant with the AI models.  They really haven't done well. A tool but I wouldn't lean heavily on anything they spit out.

[wncsnow]

16 here this morning. Ground will be cold for anything frozen that falls.

[strongwxnc]

16 here this morning. Ground will be cold for anything frozen that falls.

16 here as well.


.

[wncsnow]

My opinion- this storm is looking like like your classic old school CAD overrunning that we haven't seen in a long time.

3-5 inches of snow, and inch or 2 of sleet and .25 of ice that turns into an iceberg for days. Thats just what it looks like right now for us foothills folks.  More snow the further NE you go, more ice toward SC. 

[mercurydime]

1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:

16 here as well.


.

I got down to 19 in my little micro-climate.

[BooneWX]

Grit is favoring a hybrid miller a/b with a classic mess in the foothills 

[buckeyefan1]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Grit is favoring a hybrid miller a/b with a classic mess in the foothills 

That’s my thought as well and I hope I’m thinking too warm 

[wncsnow]

It does look like a Miller A/B hybrid, which we have done well with recently in western NC. Jan 2022, Jan 30, 2010, and December 2002 were somewhat similar setups. 

 

https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2015/12/nc-extremes-an-ice-storm-for-the-ages/

[calculus1]

My opinion- this storm is looking like like your classic old school CAD overrunning that we haven't seen in a long time.
3-5 inches of snow, and inch or 2 of sleet and .25 of ice that turns into an iceberg for days. Thats just what it looks like right now for us foothills folks.  More snow the further NE you go, more ice toward SC. 

I have so many fond memories of those types of storms from the 1980s and 1990s. Bring it on!


.