2026 Foothills thread

[BooneWX]

Guys I’m going to be really negative this week so I apologize in advance. Partly because im in ill believe it when I see it on the ground mode, but I’m also going to generate good mojo by telling Mother Nature she’s not capable of pulling it off. 

[strongwxnc]

Underground forecast has updated since the 12z runs for MBY. lol



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[SnowDawg]

My thinking is that we all should’ve known better than to fall for a handful of GFS/NAM runs but we did anyway. Outside of that I actually think today’s event was fairly well modeled. South/Central GA appeared to be the bullseye at a decent lead time and it proved true. That being said I’ll absolutely temper my expectations, but if the EuroAI/Euro/EPS are all in as we move forward then there ain’t gonna be no stopping my excitement lol.

[calculus1]

I think it’s interesting how cold chasing moisture has no shot to work in the foothills, but it can work out for a quick pasting for anywhere from Winston-Salem on eastward. This isn’t even a bittercast; it’s just a statement of fact. If the cold is not present when the moisture arrives, downsloping will accompany the incoming cold air and dry up any residual moisture that be present. Cold chasing moisture also works in the Midwest and plains because the downsloping doesn’t occur there either.


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[WNC_Fort]

18z GFS shows my concern. Suppression city.

edit: ends up not TOO bad. But, still the main thing I’m concerned about

[buckeyefan1]

6 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

18z GFS shows my concern. Suppression city.

What suppression 

[WXNewton]

15 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

18z GFS shows my concern. Suppression city.

edit: ends up not TOO bad. But, still the main thing I’m concerned about

At this stage I'd say storm sign is there and let's focus on ensembles, these runs are definitely going to change North and south this far out, but signal looks great.

[BooneWX]

Good or bad runs, it doesn’t matter with this upcoming storm - the gfs can’t be valued in any depiction. It’s as useful as the hrrr at 48 hrs.

[BooneWX]

Now here’s some guidance that is appropriate for injecting hope


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[WNC_Fort]

Hmmm

[Ernest T Bass]

4 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Guys I’m going to be really negative this week so I apologize in advance. Partly because im in ill believe it when I see it on the ground mode, but I’m also going to generate good mojo by telling Mother Nature she’s not capable of pulling it off. 

I did my part; washed both vehicles today.  That should help bring on some kind of precipitation.

[wncsnow]

I'm going to take a bit of a different approach to next weekend. I'm going to (try) not to get too high or low on each model runs and rely on ensembles until we get to Wednesday or so. We just need to keep the signal until about then and mix in some big OP runs. 

[BornAgain13]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I'm going to take a bit of a different approach to next weekend. I'm going to (try) not to get too high or low on each model runs and rely on ensembles until we get to Wednesday or so. We just need to keep the signal until about then and mix in some big OP runs. 

This is a great way to go about it!