1/3-4 Return of the North Trend?

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, bncho said:

Euro shows a dusting for DC and GFS keeps shifting north every model run. Might be a surprise event and things are trending in that direction. h5 starting to look more conducive for a small event. Let's reel this in.

I'll take a continued north trend for 1000 Alex!!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 

For maybe an inch, not unrealistic.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

For maybe an inch, not unrealistic.

Better then nothing I guess lol

[CAPE]

[CAPE]

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hey hey that northern vort helps to spread the dust to everybody 

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey hey thar northern vort helps to spread the dust to everybody 

It isnt much lol. Snow is snow tho.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I'll gladly take that 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

I'll gladly take that 

Still some time...maybe we can squeeze an inch or so out of this before we are forced into hibernation for 2 weeks.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It isnt much lol. Snow is snow tho.

Looks like an easy 2-4 with 5 inch lollipops in the favored areas 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Looks like an easy 2-4 with 5 inch lollipops in the favored areas 

Heading up to NW PA?

[mitchnick]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Looks like an easy 2-4 with 5 inch lollipops in the favored areas 

But only in the southern burbs of Oz. Less to the north.

[Kevin Reilly]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'll gladly take that 

Love it that’s .02” more than I got in 15 minutes this morning during the snow squall line!  Let’s go!!

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still some time...maybe we can squeeze an inch or so out of this before we are forced into hibernation for 2 weeks.

According to Ji 2 weeks puts us into March

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Heading up to NW PA?

Just wanted to say that. .2 -.4 with . 5 lollipops …I was in a stooper

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It isnt much lol. Snow is snow tho.

Hence why I said dust, lol

[Terpeast]

39 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'll gladly take that 

As would I

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

As would I

what does open atlantic mean? We have a -NAO and a  kinda of 50/50 low but people are still saying open atlantic. What would close it lol? is it the trough being too far east?

 

[Ji]

39 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

According to Ji 2 weeks puts us into March

our snow season ends the day after PD....so basically we are down to Jan 15 to Feb 15 and we lose 3 days in February already for some leap year stuff

[bncho]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

our snow season ends the day after PD....so basically we are down to Jan 15 to Feb 15 and we lose 3 days in February already for some leap year stuff

we can get a lotta shit done from Jan 15-Feb 15, i.e. 2010

[Kevin Reilly]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

our snow season ends the day after PD....so basically we are down to Jan 15 to Feb 15 and we lose 3 days in February already for some leap year stuff

We can always hope for a March 12th to 15th 1993 type storm that one was quite fun for everyone all the way to the Gulf Coast.

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

what does open atlantic mean? We have a -NAO and a  kinda of 50/50 low but people are still saying open atlantic. What would close it lol? is it the trough being too far east?

 

To me its just wonky and not a useful block. Not really a block at all. That's a snapshot but everything is in motion. That trough over the Canadian Maritimes becomes a ridge a day later. That's probably what's meant by 'open Atlantic'. Shit be moving- no block in the flow.

[cbmclean]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

what does open atlantic mean? We have a -NAO and a  kinda of 50/50 low but people are still saying open atlantic. What would close it lol? is it the trough being too far east?

 

I second this question.  I have heard many comments to the effect that a ridge over Greenland does not equate to a block, it's the dipole between the ridge and the 50/50 low.  There is a big dipole there.  Well it is a bit south and west of 50 N 50 W, but it's not really that far.  

[CAPE]

Just now, cbmclean said:

I second this question.  I have heard many comments to the effect that a ridge over Greenland does not equate to a block, it's the dipole between the ridge and the 50/50 low.  There is a big dipole there.  Well it is a bit south and west of 50 N 50 W, but it's not really that far.  

I answered it above. A block means a ridge/trough combo(eg rex block) that remains stationary/quasi stationary. A transient dipole does nothing to help our cause unless literally everything is timed perfectly.

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

To me its just wonky and not a useful block. Not really a block at all. That's a snapshot but everything is in motion. That trough over the Canadian Maritimes becomes a ridge a day later. That's probably what's meant by 'open Atlantic'. Shit be moving- no block in the flow.

So what you're saying is it's not the pattern of the geopotential height anomalies that cause the block, but the fact that the anomalies are stationary?  That tells me that I know even less than I thought I did.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So what you're saying is it's not the pattern of the geopotential height anomalies that cause the block, but the fact that the anomalies are stationary?  That tells me that I know even less than I thought I did.  

A 'block' = Atmospheric block= features(ridge/trough combo) remain in place for a significant period instead of just moving along in the flow.

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A 'block' = Atmospheric block= features(ridge/trough combo) remain in place for a significant period instead of just moving along in the flow.

Yes, but what I did not understand is that the blockage is not a simple consequence of the existence of the the geopotential height anomalies, but rather some additional factor which causes the patter to remain stationary.

[CAPE]

Maybe google atmospheric block- there are several types. A NAO block is a Rex- poleward ridge/ equatorward trough. It forces the flow to buckle southward and that places the baroclinic boundary further south- meaning storms develop/ take a more southward track.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yes, but what I did not understand is that the blockage is not a simple consequence of the existence of the the geopotential height anomalies, but rather some additional factor which causes the patter to remain stationary.

Like nearly everything that occurs in the atmosphere, what causes a block is complex and there isnt a singe cause.

Google this- "what causes an atmospheric block"

I think it will help you get a better understanding.

[mitchnick]

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