Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BooneWX]

Jammin January loading…let’s party 

[wncsnow]

Need the NAO to trend a bit stronger negative to help switch up the Pacific. There's positive signs, especially after the first week of January. Getting that subtropical jet going will be huge. 

[BooneWX]

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Need the NAO to trend a bit stronger negative to help switch up the Pacific. There's positive signs, especially after the first week of January. Getting that subtropical jet going will be huge. 

Definitely the best look we’ve had in a while! I like where we’re at. Could all go to pot but for now it’s hard not to weenie. I think someone on the east coast is getting a big dog and I love our odds with ample cold on this side of the globe. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Definitely the best look we’ve had in a while! I like where we’re at. Could all go to pot but for now it’s hard not to weenie. I think someone on the east coast is getting a big dog and I love our odds with ample cold on this side of the globe. 

Get that STJ going and cold nearby and eventually we will get more than a cold rain

[wncsnow]

Trough is too far east on today's Op Euro but its close to something around the 7th

[wncsnow]

Close but no cigar 

[BooneWX]

33 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Close but no cigar 

I like that signal at this range. A storm and a 1036 hp in almost a perfect spot. Nudge that track a hair to the east and we’re going to see a hell of a clown map. At least the players are on the field.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

I think we’ll see that trough drop further west and south over time. You can see the run to run changes on the models, adjusting to our -NAO.

[NorthHillsWx]

Been a brutal shut the blinds stretch but signs of hope at least. If the expected +PNA -NAO actually sets up I’d expect to start seeing fantasy storms soon

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

Things still look interesting going into next month. Lots of things to be ironed out. Could be anywhere from cold and dry (suppression) (latest Euro)to active and wet (GFS) to active and frozen. At least we have a chance going into prime climo! 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

32 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Lock it in! I can't remember the last event that RDU came in with 6 or greater. December 2018 might be it.

[BooneWX]

It’s really encouraging to see that classic southern slider footprint present in the long term snowfall means. I just hope we don’t get too much cold press and suppress everything but with the southern jet looking as active as it does, we’re likely to see some really amped storms to balance things out. 

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

It’s really encouraging to see that classic southern slider footprint present in the long term snowfall means. I just hope we don’t get too much cold press and suppress everything but with the southern jet looking as active as it does, we’re likely to see some really amped storms to balance things out. 

At this range, looking too cold is usually a good thing.

[wncsnow]

We might have to deal with a cutter to set up the pattern 

[Met1985]

@buckeyefan1can you pin this thread and unpin the old thread.  Thank you.

[BooneWX]

GEFS continues its woefully bad performance


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[wncsnow]

9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

GEFS continues its woefully bad performance


.

I rarely give it a glance anymore. Its pitiful

[BornAgain13]

12z EPS continues to look very very good for winter weather prospects... Hoping this January will deliver many goods to everyone on this board

[Met1985]

4 hours ago, BooneWX said:

GEFS continues its woefully bad performance


.

Even the Euro at day 5 ain't great.

[NorthHillsWx]

AI GFS with a big winter storm on the 10-11th

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Even the Euro at day 5 ain't great.

Ain't great but miles better than any american model

[WiseWeather]

Whatever that is on the GFS at the backend…. Ill take 3 of em back to back to back.


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[WiseWeather]

At 384…. Looks like we have more coming….


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[WestCentrlVA]

Appears we're waiting for mid January for something possibly substantial for the entire forum. This mornings AIGFS shows one way of doing it. Last nights GFS showed it as well. We will see if we can land a storm during that time. 

[wncsnow]

GEFS shows a terrible pattern in the long range with the -PNA returning pretty much cooking winter for weeks. 

EPS looks better but still not a slam dunk pattern either. Some slight changes have led for it to be warmer for most in the 7 to 14 day period. Let's hope the-NAO can trend stronger. Still not confident the Pacific is going to help us at all this winter. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]