Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[wncsnow]

I'm expecting .25 or less here. That NW wind is strong today

[NorthHillsWx]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 In my area where ~1” fell on April 26th (during the week ending 8AM on April 28th), which is more than the normal week’s ~0.75”. I don’t see how that area really worsened a category between 8AM on April 21st and 8AM on April 28th with that week being wetter than normal. I’m thinking that some reports came in between 8AM 4/21 and 8AM 4/28 that were based on conditions prior to 4/26. Keep in mind that 8AM 4/28 was merely the deadline to get reports in that would be reflected on today’s map. For example, I’d think that the 4/28 deadline would incorporate reports coming in on, say, 4/25.

 Also, some reports submitted could easily be based on conditions from 1-2 days prior to the submission. So, reporting lag would have two components to consider.

 I’m not saying no area in reality worsened. Your area is a good example of one that really did worsen from what you’re saying. But your area’s worsening doesn’t represent the entire SE.

 This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal. And I’m not at all trying to downplay the drought, which has been and still is a bad one overall. 

Understood. The root of my post was about NC in general, I haven’t followed how much rain Georgia got but I know it was more than we did. Regardless, your way looks continued wet over the next week, so hopefully next weeks monitor catches up and shows some improvement 

[bckhd2]

Georgia has had pretty good rain the past couple days. I think we've had 1.75" since Tuesday at my place and we're supposed to get another 1" over the weekend. I expect there to be some improvement on next week's monitor, although it will take several weeks or even months of normal to above-average rain to get us back to where we're supposed to be. 

ETA- Areas down in South GA are supposed to get close to 2" this weekend, and they sure could use it. Hopefully, it will help knock down those fires and get them out of exceptional drought status.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I'm expecting .25 or less here. That NW wind is strong today

Every model ticked NW a bit at 12z. Christ I feel like I’m tracking a snow, not 3/4” of cold may rain 

[wncsnow]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Every model ticked NW a bit at 12z. Christ I feel like I’m tracking a snow, not 3/4” of cold may rain 

You sure about that?

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You sure about that?

Guess Euro was exception. GFS ICON CMC and mesos all went NW from what I could tell

[wncsnow]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Guess Euro was exception. GFS ICON CMC and mesos all went NW from what I could tell

Euro, UK, and AIFS all south. RDPS was pretty south too

[olafminesaw]

Lol, are we sure it's not January? A model battle between GFS CMC ICON vs Euro, UKMET, RGEM, north trend south trend disagreement, low tracking of the coast of Florida? But what about sun angle? 

[wncsnow]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Lol, are we sure it's not January? A model battle between GFS CMC ICON vs Euro, UKMET, RGEM, north trend south trend disagreement, low tracking of the coast of Florida? But what about sun angle? 

Really feels like it doesn't it? I just know its really dry and breeze today in WNC and I have a hard time believing it will rain much with this strong NW flow. 

[BooneWX]

Idk yall, I may be out on this one. The HP to the north just doesn’t seem strong enough. It screams 5:1 ratio slop fest that melts on contact. 

[Met1985]

At least it's going to be cool. Should be a strong CAD Saturday. 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Rates will overcome, or something like that. 

 

Part B: Where's the SER when you need it.

[NorthHillsWx]

New Bern looking at a foot while triangle gets 1-3”… typical 

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

At least it's going to be cool. Should be a strong CAD Saturday. 

That early May sun angle is gonna be tough to overcome

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Never thought id imagine the sanitarium thread possibly making a comeback because of the LACK of rain. 

[Met1985]

31 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That early May sun angle is gonna be tough to overcome

That's pretty cool for May.

[NorthHillsWx]

35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That early May sun angle is gonna be tough to overcome

No jokes but this would be a money setup in January. Probably have a warm nose somehow 

[wncsnow]

15 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That's pretty cool for May.

Yes but nothing too crazy. Still 60s here. As you know it can snow in May in the mountains. 

[WXNewton]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Idk yall, I may be out on this one. The HP to the north just doesn’t seem strong enough. It screams 5:1 ratio slop fest that melts on contact. 

I am really thinking ground temps are going to cut back on any totals we might see. It's definitely tough to get accumulations this time of the year outside the MTNS. 

[BooneWX]

Wife: we should go to Palm Springs one day 

Me: we have Palm Springs at home babe 

[wncsnow]

Models went way south for a lot of NC. Next. 

[Met1985]

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Models went way south for a lot of NC. Next. 

The NW flow will have to let up which is just starting...

[NorthHillsWx]

9 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Models went way south for a lot of NC. Next. 

Yep… Triangle will be lucky to net 0.25”. Sorry for jinxing it… That being said I’ll take any measurable rainfall I can get and it will help with soil moisture at the surface as it will be an all day dreary scenario 

[SUNYGRAD]

[SUNYGRAD]

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Dont need that 

[SUNYGRAD]

.

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Dont need that 

Agree.  It caught my attention this am.  

[olafminesaw]

7 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Hmmm. What gives them confidence in high winds that far out? Seems odd. Doesn't seem to be a particularly strong storm signal or anything.