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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026


BooneWX
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15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO has folded like a cheap lawn chair for tomorrow’s storm. Don’t think I’ve ever seen the euro fail this bad behind the GFS. MA to New England locked in on a legit blizzard. Going to be a hell of a storm from Philly to Boston what a winter NE is having 

Yeah it did fold big time up there. Would love to be on the coast in New England getting a snowacaine.

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5 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Anybody feel like these totals are exaggerated in many areas? Temps are marginal. Ratios??

Are you looking at 10:1 totals or Kuchera totals? 10:1 are exaggerated where temps are marginal.

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15 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

That's what I mean. These snow totals in VA into South Jersey seem over the top. Even north of there.

They’re crazy high, but this is a crazy strong storm (sub 975 mb) with a lowest at 500 mb of sub 520 and tons of moisture. I mean this is a once in 10+ years kind of deal with crazy heavy snowfall rates that can easily accumulate well on nonpaved surfaces even with temps up to 34-35.

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I actually don’t think they are- this is a crazy strong storm and rates are going to be unlike anything east coast has seen in a long time. Warmer also means more moisture available and seeing the dynamics at play someone’s getting buried. That being said, if you’re outside the areas of max lift (DC area) I could see a white rain event. Praying on the IVT is like playing lottery

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11 hours ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Anybody feel like these totals are exaggerated in many areas? Temps are marginal. Ratios??

Might be,but its not exactly impossible in this region. In Feb 2010 PHL saw 28" and then another like 12" a week later. December 2009 also saw a solid 18". 

 

That being said, it started off as a fair amount of rain here in Manhattan...on and off snow now though.

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Pretty cool from the NYC forum NWS AFD.  Fun reading the MA and NY forums right now. 
 

While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with
the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with
banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar
to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF
guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to
the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM
appears to be too high. This was mannualy adjusted down to
10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by
late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around
the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50
inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along
the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow
for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While
this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30
inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the
coast.
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