Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS with a rather large jump back east. Euro remains about where it’s been. One models staying steady and the other is jumping around 100 miles each run. 

[NorthHillsWx]

6z icon was pretty solid for central NC but not western areas. Still huge improvement overall though 

[buckeyefan1]

Feast or famine. Goofy vs Dr No. Who’s gonna be the winner? Stay tuned to see how the model madness plays out

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

A lot of folks were about to get NAM'D at 6z.

 

1 hour ago, Rsheely88 said:

Just saw that! 12z should be interesting!!


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That NAM run was delivered with the Jaws music 

[CheoahBald1]

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[NorthHillsWx]

I still think Central NC is in a great spot. The fact that hasn’t really changed in 24 hours is both concerning and exciting. 

[BornAgain13]

6z GEFS, not a bad run but a big step back from 0z. 

[BornAgain13]

Eric Webb also seems to think this thing has plenty of reason to move NW as we get closer. We shall see. 

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Eric Webb also seems to think this thing has plenty of reason to move NW as we get closer. We shall see. 

I do think it ticks NW but those will be ticks on the EURO. Inside 3 days to see the euro which has been rock steady comparatively to other modeling just jump 200 miles west would be shocking m. I do think you see them meet in the middle somewhat 

[NorthHillsWx]

25 minutes ago, CheoahBald1 said:

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We are NOWHERE near the stage to worry about it as our main issue but BL temps and daytime timing are concerned. BL temps have modified with each run across most guidance for a few cycles now. Thankfully upper levels seem really good for the setup 

[Brick Tamland]

Another day of model watching. The short range models look pretty good. The GFS is starting to go back and forth, and the Euro is being stubborn. Looks like a classic winter storm threat for NC with not knowing exactly what will happen until it does or doesn't happen.

[WXNewton]

Small details make all the difference, the energy was a little flatter on 6z GFS and that really affected the outcome. If only it could look like the 6z Nam, that's the best case, neutral/neg a lot sooner.

[olafminesaw]

My biggest concern is the trend towards the low popping off the coast further north, in a more miller B fashion. This would allow more warm air to migrate inland and best dynamics to stay north of the VA border until the low starts moving more NE. At that point it becomes a cold chasing moisture kind of situation 

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Feast or famine. Goofy vs Dr No. Who’s gonna be the winner? Stay tuned to see how the model madness plays out

Can you bless me with KHKY? 

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We are NOWHERE near the stage to worry about it as our main issue but BL temps and daytime timing are concerned. BL temps have modified with each run across most guidance for a few cycles now. Thankfully upper levels seem really good for the setup 

First rule of winter weather is to get the cold air established and I’m worried about that for you guys. It doesn’t matter how strong the arctic blast is, the process is more of a spillage over the apps than a blue norther. 

[WiseWeather]

Can you bless me with KHKY? 

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[wncsnow]

Gotta trust the Euro and Euro AI unfortunately. They just haven't changed much and have the best verification scores..

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

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Thank you, king!

[ncjoaquin]

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Gotta trust the Euro and Euro AI unfortunately. They just haven't changed much and have the best verification scores..

I think the best bet is to find the model that shows the absolute least amount of snow for the Central Mountains and the foothills. There is your forecast.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WestCentrlVA]

Has anyone heard why there was no balloon sampling in the west recently and whether that could be playing into the model madness? 

[stormwatcherJ]

I give myself (in Hillsborough) about a 10% chance at measurable snow at this point. I'm far from an expert, but I listen well to the experts, and I'm hearing the same tune. Daytime event if there's much precip at all, warmer temps during the day and waiting till night for cold air to spill over the Apps. By then the precip is all but gone. Still hopeful for another system soon!

[NorthHillsWx]

6z Euro was warmer and east. Temps are becoming a concerning trend outside the mountains (what’s new)

[WXNewton]

19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Gotta trust the Euro and Euro AI unfortunately. They just haven't changed much and have the best verification scores..

And EPS... unfortunately it's locked in with both OPs. However, I will say there was a storm in 2017 in December where the globals kept the wave flatter and to the east right up until go time, and actually the hrrr and NAM were one of the first to show the moisture way more expansive. All and All though, Euro is concerning. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Snatched from Tony Pann’s Twitter/X account 

[NorthHillsWx]

Thread started, someone had to do it

 

[Tony Sisk]

3 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

Why are we awake right now?  Three days before and the models are still all over the place. lol. 

my 62 years of experience, living in the upstate....these clipper storms do not grab the energy that the models predict.  It is very rare to happen. That is why the models are all over the place. Unfortunately, I don't see anyone getting snow outside the mountains.

[stormwatcherJ]

When's the next potential threat?... I'm toast for this weekend.

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

When's the next potential threat?... I'm toast for this weekend.

2027

[NorthHillsWx]

Today’s drought monitor update now places 56% of the state in SEVERE drought:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NC