January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

This one seems more Jan 2010 than yesterday

Just kidding. Hopefully the 5th cape storm will work out

Its only the 2nd of this winter. And the first produced a widespread half inch to 2 inches! 

This is the original and probably the one and only Cape storm. I identified the way out of the shit the blinds pattern and it actually worked out.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20220103

I did/still do like early Feb, so we shall see. RN it looks like places right along the coast might get nailed, subject to change ofc.

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s wild that just started tracking a hecs and are in Nam range already lol

What’s this snowstorm Nam is giving us Friday?

That is THE storm...NAM is just 12 hours faster getting it going...which I am not sure is a good thing...it opens the door to a minor snowfall v all or nothing...but it has the surface wave running out ahead of the NS upper feature such that the timing for a bigger event is probably off.  

[psuhoffman]

GFS is trending west a little with the western ridge BUT it's also flatter which is probably offsetting any gains in longitude 

[stormtracker]

So far, nothing meaningful changewise on the GFS

[Cobalt]

AI GFS continuing its trend of shifting the trough West

[jayyy]

AI GFS continuing its trend of shifting the trough West

Better orientation too. Need that to keep trending that way

[overcautionisbad]

Damn, ICON miss. gg

[stormtracker]

Looks slightly better surface wise so far

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

AI GFS continuing its trend of shifting the trough West

Translates to a 25-50 mile shift northwest. Not a hit, but a least a step. 0z yesterday was 200 miles + offshore

[stormtracker]

Sfc much better so far, but still not sure it's gonna get the job done

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS is definetly better upstairs so far. We have a further west NS thanks to a better ridge

[stormtracker]

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Sfc much better so far, but still not sure it's gonna get the job done

It doesn't really have much separation between the 50/50 and the central us NS

[bncho]

The GFS is really trying, will it do it?

[stormtracker]

hmmm

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

Don't fuck this up GFS.  It might not get it done, but it should be close

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

Damn..it's gonna be a tease and a close miss again.  Still in play

[Solution Man]

Come on

[hazwoper]

OBX blizzard 

[EHoffman]

Leaps and bounds better.  Basically exactly what I wanted to see out of this run.

[stormtracker]

Verbatim, everybody would be pulling their hair out, lol

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't fuck this up GFS.  It might not get it done, but it should be close

that's like telling the sun to be dimmer

[weathercoins]

Would be a pretty absurd solution down south, especially on top of what they already have 

[EHoffman]

20mb drop from 120-126.  Lol.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Damn..it's gonna be a tease and a close miss again.  Still in play

Too strong of a NS ribbon connecting it and suppressing it south. Need that to weaken or otherwise have the whole storm move west... which isn't impossible.

[stormtracker]

I'd rather lose this by 500 miles than it be that painfully close and whiffs.   Stomach in knots now thinking of that scenario.    Just hit us directly or move the hell out at this point

[SnowenOutThere]

For everyone wondering I think this is the dictionary definition of edging

[EHoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'd rather lose this by 500 miles than it be that painfully close and whiffs.   Stomach in knots now thinking of that scenario.    Just hit us directly or move the hell out at this point

This is the business we've chosen.