January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[LeesburgWx]

I’m telling y’all, this is the time the GFS will be right. Seen it too many times. GFS sucks ass except when it shows less snow than Euro.

[winter_warlock]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agree.  1050mB tends to draw things north.  Seen it hundreds of times…thousands 

I'm picking up ur sarcasm 

[Ji]

ICON + CMC + GFS combo vs Euro + Euro AI + GFS AI combo
i think i know which side i'm taking for now.

Always go with the model with the least snow until otherwise proven

[BristowWx]

If it’s really a 1050 high over the Midwest we should just move on and clap for Columbia SC.  Flip the calendar to Feb and slam a fifth of Jack. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, BristowWx said:

If it’s really a 1050 high over the Midwest we should just move on and clap for Columbia SC.  Flip the calendar to Feb and slam a fifth of Jack. 

 Why? Still got 150+ hours to go. Too early to move on 

[bncho]

so at hr 102 with the AI-GFS, i think the baja blast low is less prominent, whatever the hell that means? idk what that will mean down the road

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 Why? Still got 150+ hours to go. Too early to move on 

Fair enough.  I said if it’s a 1050.  We’ve been doing this so long it’s hard not to be a pessimistic.  

[stormtracker]

So far, nothing jumping out on the GFS.  Western S/w still in the pic.  Never know with the GFS flipping H5 looks every run

[LP08]

As long as temps are good, ai looks like another winner

[bncho]

Just now, LP08 said:

As long as temps are good, ai looks like another winner

Temps aren't good. It's legit too amped for snow lol. major zr event verbatim tho

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

so at hr 102 with the AI-GFS, i think the baja blast low is less prominent, whatever the hell that means? idk what that will mean down the road

It continues to eject the energy.  Looks even more amped than 18z

[stormtracker]

So there are some differences up top in Canada with what Imma call our egg s/w.   Flip more horizontalIy than vertical.   Not sure what that means.    Egg s/w is trademarked

[Ji]

As long as temps are good, ai looks like another winner

Looks like big ice

[ChillinIt]

Nope....

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

As long as temps are good, ai looks like another winner

Looks to be a snow to ice scenario. 

Surface temps are plenty cold but 850s are torching 

[stormtracker]

I like how models go either 1 or 10 with us, lol.   Suppressed...amp'd.  sheesh.

[stormtracker]

Energy out west is either slower or it's wester vs 18z

[LP08]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Looks to be a snow to ice scenario. 

Surface temps are plenty cold but 850s are torching 

Could only see surface temps.  Just glad it’s a big precip maker still

[Ji]

Energy out west is either slower or it's wester vs 18z

Gfs is only consistent on surpressed solutions

[stormtracker]

Can already tell this gonna be suppressed again

[nj2va]

GFS wants no part ejecting that energy in the SW

[Ji]

Boy are we off to a bad start tonight

[stormtracker]

Nice lil 1046 High coming down over the Dakotas

[winter_warlock]

Some people say ice some say suppressed lol 

[Ji]

Some people say ice some say suppressed lol 

It’s basically everything but snow for us

[Steve25]

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with this start to the 0z suite. Amped and suppressed. Then there’s something to be found in the middle. It’ll be a problem when the majority of the models start trending in the same *wrong* direction. Until then, it’s all still on the table. 

[Amped]

Gfs even more smothered this run. Nothing coming north into that high.

[stormtracker]

Funny enough the GFS might be trying to do something with the now delayed s/w out west...just spitballing.  Let's see

[Ji]

I’m going to bed

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

I’m going to bed

i hope the bed bugs bite