January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

BAMWX is doing  a live streem in a minute or 2 on the potential storm.

 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

BAMWX is doing  a live streem in a minute or 2 on the potential storm.

 

he basically said that he don't believe the suppression depression

[bncho]

@stormtrackerwhere are ya? GFS is at hour 90!

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

@stormtrackerwhere are ya? GFS is at hour 90!

I'm here.  you get it quicker seems like.  I'm only at 81...nothing to talk about yet

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

@stormtrackerwhere are ya? GFS is at hour 90!

Projectile vomiting outside his house. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm here.  you get it quicker seems like.  I'm only at 81...nothing to talk about yet

When you’re his age that’s generally how it works. 

[stormtracker]

So, in these early panels before the money shot, im looking out west to see if that wave gonna dig down and get stuck our come out like the Euro.   So far, the wave isn't phased/ consolidated...it's two separate pieces of energy...which actually might be a good thing I'd think

[stormtracker]

Still nothing jumping out yet....features are still there, just can't tell if it's gonna come out like the Euro had

[Terpeast]

Fwiw AI GFS doubles down on its 12z look. (It’s a relatively new and untested AI model unlike AIFS)

[StormyClearweather]

FWIW, AI GFS has a 1"plus of precip over 48 hours with temps in the 20s. Presuambly, that'd be snow (?). Do think it tends to overdo QPF, but still...

 

[stormtracker]

We all need to fly out west and push this damn thing.  Still can't tell what it's gonna do

[bncho]

Just now, StormyClearweather said:

FWIW, AI GFS has a 1"plus of precip over 48 hours with temps in the 20s. Presuambly, that'd be snow (?). Do this it tends to overdo QPF, but still...

 

we might mix in the metros for a bit, but it's snow mostly

[stormtracker]

Sw is def further west than 12z GFS...precip breaking out in the middle of the country like last time, but still has that smooshed suppressed look so far

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Sw is def further west than 12z GFS...precip breaking out in the middle of the country like last time, but still has that smooshed suppressed look so far

Huge FWIW but it's slightly less supressed

[stormtracker]

So, i'm at 129...Euro started moving things along...GFS still kinda loligagging back there and surface still has the suppressive look..maybe a hair better, but not much

[batmanbrad]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sw is def further west than 12z GFS...precip breaking out in the middle of the country like last time, but still has that smooshed suppressed look so far

I see that big-ass 1050mb HP, where would we LIKE that to set up so that suppression is lessened and yet is close enough to keep the cold air around?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, batmanbrad said:

I see that big-ass 1050mb HP, where would we LIKE that to set up so that suppression is lessened and yet is close enough to keep the cold air around?

way fucking west so the wave can climb up the coast

[ravensrule]

Just now, bncho said:

way fucking west so the wave can climb up the coast

Your mother is going to have to wash out your mouth with soap. 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, this doesn't look like it's gonna do it so far

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

FWIW, AI GFS has a 1"plus of precip over 48 hours with temps in the 20s. Presuambly, that'd be snow (?). Do think it tends to overdo QPF, but still...

 

At least it's angled wsw/ene instead of due east.

[stormtracker]

Shit is just getting smashed to all hell...and GFS not bringing out that energy like the Euro did

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this doesn't look like it's gonna do it so far

AI gfs steady as she goes. Big hit similar is 12z 

[stormtracker]

lol, it's worse than 12z

 

FUCK

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this doesn't look like it's gonna do it so far

Well we got lots of time plenty of time to inch nw

[nj2va]

GFS did such a great job with today’s storm, I’m sure its right with this too!

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

AI gfs steady as she goes. Big hit similar is 12z 

Yup...ain't no GFS gonna get me down (and NOBODY should be down)

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

lol, it's worse than 12z

 

FUCK

This is where @bncholearned the language from. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, nj2va said:

GFS did such a great job with today’s storm, I’m sure its right with this too!

This

[winter_warlock]

Soo do we trust AIGFS or  GFS...  Decisions 

[Scraff]

Why am I feeling congrats Kitty Hawk…