bncho Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: What the hell are we looking for again? snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Sw in the pacific off of cali cut off, whereas before it was phasing in with another s/w. Maybe not a bad thing. There is still another s/w that phased into it..or whatever...but it's weaker so far. Nothing jumps out attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 snow I’m looking for bitchin nachos. Any suggestions 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Stj energy is still there. This might be one of those longtrack systems/patterns that flip flops for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm here. Cooking too for a dinner party im having. Def prob won't be sober for 0z pbp 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, 87storms said: Stj energy is still there. This might be one of those longtrack systems/patterns that flip flops for a few more days. Yeah, it's def there...just not as strong..which may not be a bad thing? We'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 it may be too warm on the HH GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Moisture starting to develop in the middle of the country...finger pointing toward us..but thermals look worse than 12z so far...BUT CAD not getting started yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Yeah, it's gonna be too warm. This one in this run is cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, 87storms said: Stj energy is still there. This might be one of those longtrack systems/patterns that flip flops for a few more days. I absolutely expect this. It's not a setup like, say, the Jan. 2016 blizzard that was locked in consistently on every single model a week in advance where the only issue was how much and whether we'd get sleet as well as a ton of snow. As long as the main overall idea is there with a decent wave throwing moisture into very cold air remains consistent and doesn't get can-kicked, that's good right now in my opinion. Individual deterministic runs will vary all over the place, as expected right now, and hopefully ensembles will still be hammering that time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ok, time for dinner prep. Ugly run. Maybe it'll recover in later panels. Bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 that was the sad hour GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ok, time for dinner prep. Ugly run. Maybe it'll recover in later panels. Bye Looks to me like that big, cold high is notably farther to the northwest compared to 12Z, rather than moving in over-top. So the wave and low are a lot further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Amen brother. This hobby fucking sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I absolutely expect this. It's not a setup like, say, the Jan. 2016 blizzard that was locked in consistently on every single model a week in advance where the only issue was how much and whether we'd get sleet as well as a ton of snow. As long as the main overall idea is there with a decent wave throwing moisture into very cold air remains consistent and doesn't get can-kicked, that's good right now in my opinion. Individual deterministic runs will vary all over the place, as expected right now, and hopefully ensembles will still be hammering that time frame. Yea all I’m chasing at this point is the “chance” to have a decent storm and that requires a gulf tap from a system crossing the southern plains. If the cold air gets shunted east and/or is too transient, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The gfs is an unusable model. Look at the last 4 runs. No continuity. It’s like playing the slots 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Cold and dry. Wet and 37 degrees. That has been this winter. Bring on 60 degrees temps and longer days. Get us to an el nino next winter. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 That's close enough for 180hrs away. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026011718&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 GFS can’t even get tomorrows storm right and we’re freaking out about a storm 8 days out? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Ji said: The gfs is an unusable model. Look at the last 4 runs. No continuity. It’s like playing the slots Hey...a usual suspect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, mitchnick said: Hey...a usual suspect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I think we can laugh in 6 hours for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The gfs is an unusable model. Look at the last 4 runs. No continuity. It’s like playing the slots And it will get replaced with another unusable model at some point. Trying to understand chaos is a worthless endeavor. I am about burned out though brother. A decade of suck is getting to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The ai gfs has a cutter followed up by a slider 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Ji said: The gfs is an unusable model. Look at the last 4 runs. No continuity. It’s like playing the slots It's the second coming of Ji-sus, guys. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Ji said: The ai gfs has a cutter followed up by a slider Gotta' give it credit. It learns fast. Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think we can laugh in 6 hours for this one. Signal’s there, don’t understand the doom and gloom for something 200 hours out. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 And it will get replaced with another unusable model at some point. Trying to understand chaos is a worthless endeavor. I am about burned out though brother. A decade of suck is getting to me.Between the terrible redskins and this stupid hobby I just can’t anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The gfs will just not give us snow no matterWhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 GFS cutter then slider. Oh well, it’s the GFS. Takeaway is that there are two juiced up STJ waves with cold nearby, all we can ask for in a Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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