January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

What the hell are we looking for again?

snow 

 

 

[stormtracker]

Sw in the pacific off of cali cut off, whereas before it was phasing in with another s/w.  Maybe not a bad thing.  There is still another s/w that phased into it..or whatever...but it's weaker so far.  Nothing jumps out attm

[jayyy]

snow 
 
 

I’m looking for bitchin nachos. Any suggestions

[87storms]

Stj energy is still there. This might be one of those longtrack systems/patterns that flip flops for a few more days.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm here.  Cooking too for a dinner party im having.  Def prob won't be sober for 0z pbp

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Stj energy is still there. This might be one of those longtrack systems/patterns that flip flops for a few more days.

Yeah, it's def there...just not as strong..which may not be a bad thing?  We'll see

[bncho]

it may be too warm on the HH GFS. 

[stormtracker]

Moisture starting to develop in the middle of the country...finger pointing toward us..but thermals look worse than 12z so far...BUT CAD not getting started yet

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it's gonna be too warm.  This one in this run is cooked

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Stj energy is still there. This might be one of those longtrack systems/patterns that flip flops for a few more days.

I absolutely expect this.  It's not a setup like, say, the Jan. 2016 blizzard that was locked in consistently on every single model a week in advance where the only issue was how much and whether we'd get sleet as well as a ton of snow.  As long as the main overall idea is there with a decent wave throwing moisture into very cold air remains consistent and doesn't get can-kicked, that's good right now in my opinion.  Individual deterministic runs will vary all over the place, as expected right now, and hopefully ensembles will still be hammering that time frame.

[stormtracker]

Ok, time for dinner prep.   Ugly run.  Maybe it'll recover in later panels.    Bye

[bncho]

that was the sad hour GFS

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ok, time for dinner prep.   Ugly run.  Maybe it'll recover in later panels.    Bye

Looks to me like that big, cold high is notably farther to the northwest compared to 12Z, rather than moving in over-top.  So the wave and low are a lot further north.

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Amen brother. This hobby fucking sucks.

[87storms]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I absolutely expect this.  It's not a setup like, say, the Jan. 2016 blizzard that was locked in consistently on every single model a week in advance where the only issue was how much and whether we'd get sleet as well as a ton of snow.  As long as the main overall idea is there with a decent wave throwing moisture into very cold air remains consistent and doesn't get can-kicked, that's good right now in my opinion.  Individual deterministic runs will vary all over the place, as expected right now, and hopefully ensembles will still be hammering that time frame.

Yea all I’m chasing at this point is the “chance” to have a decent storm and that requires a gulf tap from a system crossing the southern plains. If the cold air gets shunted east and/or is too transient, so be it. 

[Ji]

The gfs is an unusable model. Look at the last 4 runs. No continuity. It’s like playing the slots

[Imgoinhungry]

Cold and dry. Wet and 37 degrees. That has been this winter.

Bring on 60 degrees temps and longer days. Get us to an el nino next winter.


.

[mitchnick]

That's close enough for 180hrs away.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026011718&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[rjvanals]

GFS can’t even get tomorrows storm right and we’re freaking out about a storm 8 days out? 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The gfs is an unusable model. Look at the last 4 runs. No continuity. It’s like playing the slots

Hey...a usual suspect!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Hey...a usual suspect!

[mitchnick]

I think we can laugh in 6 hours for this one.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs is an unusable model. Look at the last 4 runs. No continuity. It’s like playing the slots

And it will get replaced with another unusable model at some point. Trying to understand chaos is a worthless endeavor. I am about burned out though brother. A decade of suck is getting to me.

[Ji]

The ai gfs has a cutter followed up by a slider

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs is an unusable model. Look at the last 4 runs. No continuity. It’s like playing the slots

It's the second coming of Ji-sus, guys.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

The ai gfs has a cutter followed up by a slider

Gotta' give it credit. It learns fast. Lol

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think we can laugh in 6 hours for this one.

Signal’s there, don’t understand the doom and gloom for something 200 hours out.

[Ji]

And it will get replaced with another unusable model at some point. Trying to understand chaos is a worthless endeavor. I am about burned out though brother. A decade of suck is getting to me.

Between the terrible redskins and this stupid hobby I just can’t anymore

[Ji]

The gfs will just not give us snow no matter
What

[bncho]

GFS cutter then slider. Oh well, it’s the GFS. Takeaway is that there are two juiced up STJ waves with cold nearby, all we can ask for in a Nina.