January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

The phase got sloppy at the key point. Kept it from being really good

 Still a nice improvement. Plenty of time for tweaks!

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The phase got sloppy at the key point. Kept it from being really good

Still plenty of time for movements this obviously is not the end point. 

[Ji]

I don’t know what happened here and what broke it apart . Always something

[stormtracker]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Yup the more conservative we are the less we get disappointed!!   If that makes any sense 

Yeah, I don't get excited easily.  Gotta look at the sfc and h5.  had that flow been backer and I saw it, I would have been honking

[bncho]

This is why @stormtracker does PBP. He's a real pro.

[winter_warlock]

Thanks for the PBP Randy!

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Ji said:

I don’t know what happened here and what broke it apart . Always something

I mean there’s the pretty obvious wave spacing issues with the non integrated vorticity in the gulf states which broadens the trough alongside the double whammy of the NS barging in. Either one could improve to help us out 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, bncho said:

This is why @stormtracker does PBP. He's a real pro.

Amen brother!!

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I don't get excited easily.  Gotta look at the sfc and h5.  had that flow been backer and I saw it, I would have been honking

Your poor BF. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

This is why @stormtracker does PBP. He's a real pro.

lol, I'm a barely capable weenie dude.  But thanks.

[stormtracker]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Your poor BF. 

Not tonight. Promises were made

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

The phase got sloppy at the key point. Kept it from being really good

i don't think this is done trending west, though other models may be stubborn on the west trend i think gfs is leading with this and trends more west reminds me of nemo, but the opposite instead of east it's west

[NorthArlington101]

[DDweatherman]

Can't hate it. There's definitely reason to think this isn't dead looking at the 0z suite thus far. 

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

lol, I'm a barely capable weenie dude.  But thanks.

Your mindset is different from all the other weenies, though. You play it conservative and don't say anything unless 100% sure. that puts you already in the top 99%tile.

[ravensrule]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I would lock this up right now. I don’t need anything else. Please lock it down. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I'd take that and call it a day.  I know the FDK and west folks wouldn't at the moment.  Can't blame them.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean there’s the pretty obvious wave spacing issues with the non integrated vorticity in the gulf states which broadens the trough alongside the double whammy of the NS barging in. Either one could improve to help us out 

Yes we have a couple of ways to win…very important 

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC looks like it’ll be improved some but def not enough to give anyone a storm imo outside maybe Carolinas

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Your mindset is different from all the other weenies, though. You play it conservative and don't say anything unless 100% sure. that puts you already in the top 99%tile.

I just know how it goes when people are waiting on pbp and can't see shit.  I used to go through it way back in the olden days and people would be hyping something up, heart gets racing and next thing you know it's a dud.  That shit used to irritate me so bad.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i don't think this is done trending west, though other models may be stubborn on the west trend i think gfs is leading with this and trends more west reminds me of nemo, but the opposite instead of east it's west

Maybe, but I think that track is pretty classic Niña.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'd take that and call it a day.  I know the FDK and west folks wouldn't at the moment.  Can't blame them.

 Not bad at all. !!  Still some time for a farther tick west. But was a pretty good run!

[Solution Man]

Where’s @CAPE

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'd take that and call it a day.  I know the FDK and west folks wouldn't at the moment.  Can't blame them.

I mean if this is a legit threat it’s about where I’d want it right now cause usually this is the kind of event that would move 50-75 miles more north at least by game time. Again if this is legit I wouldn’t wanna be in the bullseye just yet. Maybe by tomorrow night. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Maybe, but I think that track is pretty classic Niña.

i'd go with another 50-100 miles expansion with precip and low right at bm

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

I mean if this is a legit threat it’s about where I’d want it right now cause usually this is the kind of event that would move 50-75 miles more north at least by game time. Again if this is legit I wouldn’t wanna be in the bullseye just yet. Maybe by tomorrow night. 

If GFS keeps leading the way, a 50-75 mile jog N and W isn't crazy.  I like the slow trends till game day tbh.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC looks like it’ll be improved some but def not enough to give anyone a storm imo outside maybe Carolinas

You looking at a old run bud? 

[Steve25]

Webb was repeating a few times earlier that setups like this trend NW pretty much all the way up to the finish line almost every time. He was focused on the Carolinas, but it seems relevant, if he’s right. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC looks like it’ll be improved some but def not enough to give anyone a storm imo outside maybe Carolinas

The CMC always matches the RGEM so I’d be shocked if it doesn’t at least make a play for a light event in DC

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

I mean if this is a legit threat it’s about where I’d want it right now cause usually this is the kind of event that would move 50-75 miles more north at least by game time. Again if this is legit I wouldn’t wanna be in the bullseye just yet. Maybe by tomorrow night. 

I’ll disagree with you here. This is a traditional low out of the gulf setup (despite literally featuring one) that has the bias to slip north in accordance with a temp gradient. Instead it’s a trough going negative at the right time for someone to get snow. Of course, it could be this happens 100s of miles earlier and the northwest crew wins but I don’t see that anymore likely than a shift the other direction.