January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wonder if it’s almost a case of too much of a good thing at h5 with the bombing out. Maybe with such an intense depression in the atmosphere it encourages surface cyclogensis to progress through its stages too rapidly. Subsequently it’s too late to actually develop a good moisture fetch as the moist air transport is cut by the occlusion. Though honestly I have no clue. Only other thing that I think lends credence to my theory is that the upper levels are so dominant it forces cyclogenesis over the middle of NC instead of the normal coastal temp gradient. Dunno how we actually improve this situation though (as in what to watch for) 

Sounds like this is a good study for ya 

[wxmeddler]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean from what is advertised it makes sense but its just crazy to see the main vorticity go from central MN to central MO without moving any further east. An additional question I have is what makes some vorticity to be ropes vs lobes. I understand its a measure of small air parcels spinning counterclockwise which indicates diffusion in the atmosphere which is tied to upper level winds and temp advection but still cant quite grasp why it actually appears like it does.

In a relative vorticity framework you get positive vorticity by either curvature (around a low) or by a positive change in wind speed to the right of the vector. Vort "lobes" tend to be produced by the curvature in, or in advance of a low, and the "ribbons" tend to be from areas of high wind shear across a horizontal distance. 

Look at an H5 wind map, then look at at an H5 Rel. Vort map, then flip them back and forth. You'll see it.

[wxmeddler]

32 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

In H5 I trust. Models are still all over the place. Hopefully we'll see them lock in on an HECS in a couple of days. 

Trust the Synoptics

[baltosquid]

Euro AI is still close but not there. Tilts negative, not a bad h5 look, but it isn't really diving into TN and the south like the GFS was, and it's pretty dry with problematic temps.

[bncho]

0z Euro looks much better than 18z. At hour 99 the trough is SW and is deeper

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Euro AI is still close but not there. Tilts negative, not a bad h5 look, but it isn't really diving into TN and the south like the GFS was, and it's pretty dry with problematic temps.

Thru 234hrs. Both "threats"

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

0z Euro looks much better than 18z. At hour 99 the trough is SW and is deeper

Should snow this run but it’s not gonna bomb. 

[bncho]

0z Euro h5 looks very similar to 0z GFS

[ravensrule]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't care about the rain in the winter, I'm just giving an example how lack of precip has been a problem in the current weather regime. 

And I’m explaining to you that there was no lack of precip today. 

[bncho]

hell i'll even say 0z euro is better than the 0z GFS at h5

[bncho]

nice change

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

hell i'll even say 0z euro is better than the 0z GFS at h5

But if it follows other guidance...watch it be dry at the surface, lol

[wxmeddler]

Regarding the moisture issue:
Yeah, that's not going away. The positive tilt of the trough at H7 and H85 ahead (1) of the synoptics getting in line for us is not great for folding the sub-tropical air back up into our area (2). The leading s/w that kicks out from the sub-tropical jet (3) is a kick in the pants. 

[Amped]

Did it pull an icon or something? As long as h5 looks good we can all take a long shower so it has some moisture to work with.

[bncho]

0z Euro not bad. I believe it's 1-3", maybe 2-4"?

Edit: south of DC is jackzone, about 3-6" there. DC gets around 1-3", Baltimore C-1". Subject to change as this is based purely off temps and precipitation maps

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Regarding the moisture issue:
Yeah, that's not going away. The positive tilt of the trough at H7 and H85 ahead (1) of the synoptics getting in line for us is not great for folding the sub-tropical air back up into our area (2). The leading s/w that kicks out from the sub-tropical jet (3) is a kick in the pants. 

Hm...so are we kinda looking at a ceiling of the moisture potential with this one in general?

And secondly...how unusual is this?

[Ji]

Hm...so are we kinda looking at a ceiling of the moisture potential with this one in general?
And secondly...how unusual is this?

The gfs showed the upside potential of this storm so no

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hm...so are we kinda looking at a ceiling of the moisture potential with this one in general?

And secondly...how unusual is this?

Best precip field won't be nailed 4+ days out in any storm.

[NorthArlington101]

[bncho]

The Euro was a huge step towards the older GFS runs. It was a pleasure to PBP for y'all. Good night!

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Best precip field won't be nailed 4+ days out in any storm.

Yeah I understand that...but what he was saying about the issue of moisture though...it seems like guidance is all dry despite improving at H5.

[wxmeddler]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hm...so are we kinda looking at a ceiling of the moisture potential with this one in general?

And secondly...how unusual is this?

Yeah. We're not really setting ourselves up for tapping as much moisture as we could be for storms this time of year.

The unusual part of this pattern is really the ridge over the PacNW. I don't recall seeing a 588dm high over Nor-Cal this time of year. We're just seeing the downstream effects of that which includes cold air intrusions coming straight south from Hudson Bay. 

[bncho]

Yup, definitely a moisture issue. A 989 low producing very little precip.

[NorthArlington101]

EURO cooking up a monster at end of run, I think. Like 330

[bncho]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Yeah. We're not really setting ourselves up for tapping as much moisture as we could be for storms this time of year.

The unusual part of this pattern is really the ridge over the PacNW. I don't recall seeing a 588dm high over Nor-Cal this time of year. We're just seeing the downstream effects of that which includes cold air intrusions coming straight south from Hudson Bay. 

Is there any way out of this moisture issue? The last few GFS runs were showing decent QPF numbers around 1+".

[Ji]

So weird

It looks so promising here and then it dies

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

So weird

It looks so promising here and then it dies

End of EURO is 1-2’+. You’re gonna love the maps when they drop 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

So weird

It looks so promising here and then it dies

Took another step towards the gfs.

I'll take that 5 days out.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

End of EURO is 1-2’+. You’re gonna love the maps when they drop 

It's 19-20 degrees while it's snowing. Woah.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

So weird

It looks so promising here and then it dies

Fuggetaboutit...it's a 126hr panel. Everything remains on the table and a 126hr bullseye is not something to write home about (as you know.)