January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I hate NY Metro storms.   They suck.

Yea, pass on all of those.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There's been plenty of classic NYC storms that have also been great for much of New England .. 

Usually if the coast from DC to NYC gets nailed, it will suck for me...even Jan 7, 1996...PD II, pass, pass, puff.

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks, blocky, cold over the NE, and potentially snowy to me.. Top analogs in this look are several top 10 snowstorms for SNE and NYC metro .. Including Boxing Day 2010, Dec 22 2009, Jan 2016, Dec 30 2000, and several from the 50s and 60s. 

Yeah this looks close to an ideal mid-Atlantic setup, except the ridge extends too far into the plains.

[WinterWolf]

Of course DTBD at this stage ….pattern looks conducive. That’s a snowy look on the EPS.  I’ll roll the dice with that. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, pass on all of those.

5 days pre Boxing Day 2010 is number one analog for the 00z EPS Day 10.. Scoring a .93.. Eastern Mass scored 10-20" .. Place that storm 50-100 miles east and this forum gets 20-32"

[weatherwiz]

Surprised the HWW doesn't go out to eastern Mass for tomorrow

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Surprised the HWW doesn't go out to eastern Mass for tomorrow

BOX loves those href clown wind maps that always target the ORH hills

[Chrisrotary12]

EPS looks solid for the 8th

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Usually if the coast from DC to NYC gets nailed, it will suck for me...even Jan 7, 1996...PD II, pass, pass, puff.

If DC gets hit big is usually is less impressive here but there’s been plenty that hit us very hard that hit NYC too (Feb ‘78, April ‘82, Jan ‘11, Jan ‘18, etc off the top of my head) 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

BOX loves those href clown wind maps that always target the ORH hills

Very odd. 

I was just looking at bufkit, both NAM and GFS for BOS and it is going to rip tomorrow. Even the NAM which tends to undermix has gusts > 50-55 mph. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If DC gets hit big is usually is less impressive here but there’s been plenty that hit us very hard that hit NYC too (Feb ‘78, April ‘82, Jan ‘11, Jan ‘18, etc off the top of my head) 

Thank you .. I don't know where the stigma comes that NYC snow is bad for SNE.. There are plenty of good ones that get great bands into CNE and Maine.. Feb 2006, Feb 2013, Jan 1960.. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Thank you .. I don't know where the stigma comes that NYC snow is bad for SNE.. There are plenty of good ones that get great bands into CNE and Maine.. Feb 2006, Feb 2013, Jan 1960.. 

12/26/10 was also great here but had arctic sand in between here and the Berks. 
 

But that was an odd one because the deformation band certainly got deep into SNE, it’s just that there was not much in between Boston and the Berks.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

EPS looks solid for the 8th

Yeah I thought after the 6th (perhaps starting on the 6th) pattern looked conducive. Is it perfect?  No, but I don’t see the angst from some. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12/26/10 was also great here but had arctic sand in between here and the Berks. 
 

But that was an odd one because the deformation band certainly got deep into SNE, it’s just that there was not much in between Boston and the Berks.

Ya I mentioned that above, it was weird , Got WNE and Eastern New England but skunked CNE

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I mentioned that above, it was weird , Got WNE and Eastern New England but skunked CNE

Oh missed that, sorry. Yeah it was a strange one. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I thought after the 6th (perhaps starting on the 6th) pattern looked conducive. Is it perfect?  No, but I don’t see the angst from some. 

I do…if operational runs aren’t showing 288 hour blizzards, people get antsy regardless of whether the longwave setup looks nice….its a weird manifestation of the last 5 years. Nobody used to give a shit about whether we had 300 hour storms but now a significant portion of the forum gets anxiety over it. 
 

It’s probably because of the lack of KUs in that time period. Somehow, seeing them on the OP runs in clown range is some kind of crutch I guess. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

5 days pre Boxing Day 2010 is number one analog for the 00z EPS Day 10.. Scoring a .93.. Eastern Mass scored 10-20" .. Place that storm 50-100 miles east and this forum gets 20-32"

Number one analog is female.....place that innie on the outtie and it's a dude.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Number one analog is female.....place that innie and the outtie and it's a dude.

I think that’s placing too much precision on an analog. If all you knew is that we’d get a bomb near the cape with plenty of cold, Wed roll the dice every time and not worry about the nuances. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Thank you .. I don't know where the stigma comes that NYC snow is bad for SNE.. There are plenty of good ones that get great bands into CNE and Maine.. Feb 2006, Feb 2013, Jan 1960.. 

I said "coast from DC to NYC"...if you are telling me DC and Philly get screwed, then different ballgame.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12/26/10 was also great here but had arctic sand in between here and the Berks. 
 

But that was an odd one because the deformation band certainly got deep into SNE, it’s just that there was not much in between Boston and the Berks.

Was that the one where the SLP got really low and it resulted in the precipitation to become more banded in nature versus a uniform precip shield. It was like a tropical storm with heavy bands of snow and nothing in between. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think that’s placing too much precision on an analog. If all you knew is that we’d get a bomb near the cape with plenty of cold, Wed roll the dice every time and not worry about the nuances. 

Exactly 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said "coast from DC to NYC"...if you are telling me DC and Philly get  screwed, then different ballgame.

Yes I agree with that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think that’s placing too much precision on an analog. If all you knew is that we’d get a bomb near the cape with plenty of cold, Wed roll the dice every time and not worry about the nuances. 

That was sarcastic, but my sentiment concerning coastal mid atlantic events was genuine.

I'm just sick of hearing about favorable avenues just before mother nature inevitably choses the alternative route...I half except that to happen here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do…if operational runs aren’t showing 288 hour blizzards, people get antsy regardless of whether the longwave setup looks nice….its a weird manifestation of the last 5 years. Nobody used to give a shit about whether we had 300 hour storms but now a significant portion of the forum gets anxiety over it. 
 

It’s probably because of the lack of KUs in that time period. Somehow, seeing them on the OP runs in clown range is some kind of crutch I guess. 

When nothing works out, holding out hope in the ensembles becomes tiresome....people need more of a crutch when beaten and bruised.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was that the one where the SLP got really low and it resulted in the precipitation to become more banded in nature versus a uniform precip shield. It was like a tropical storm with heavy bands of snow and nothing in between. 

It was basically a deformation band and then one band out east from strong forcing via CF up through like 850mb. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When nothing works out, holding out hope in the ensembles becomes tiresome....people need more of a crutch when beaten and bruised.

Some of the op runs have shown some hits. 
 

I get it though. I’m as frustrated as anyone. Just hope we get thrown a bone.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Thank you .. I don't know where the stigma comes that NYC snow is bad for SNE.. There are plenty of good ones that get great bands into CNE and Maine.. Feb 2006, Feb 2013, Jan 1960.. 

Feb 2006 had the same issue Boxing Day and 2000 did....best banding was well west. I did fine, but nothing rare...

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Feb 2006 had the same issue Boxing Day and 2000 did....best banding was well west. I did fine, but nothing rare...

Feb 06 was awesome in West Hartford. Got 14" in 3 hours with thunder snow. Ended up with 27" I believe

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the op runs have shown some hits. 
 

I get it though. I’m as frustrated as anyone. Just hope we get thrown a bone.

I understand it looks great synoptically speaking....logically. I'm just tired of the disappointment and won't get excited until it's imminent. I get we are all generally snake bitten...but take that up a level for me...even the few times we have gotten it lately, I usually find myself a hole. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Feb 06 was awesome in West Hartford. Got 14" in 3 hours with thunder snow. Ended up with 27" I believe

Right...I had like 15" total. Fine, but nothing memorable.