2026 forecast contest thread -- enter your Feb 2026 forecasts

[Roger Smith]

With the new year approaching, I am terminating the 2025 contest thread with the results of Dec 2025 and the annual contest, and moving all new activity over to this thread where you can post Jan 2026 forecasts at any time, as is our custom in January, no late penalties will fall until later into the first week, let's say for sure no penalties before end of Jan 2nd, so take your time and post / edit freely -- if you don't see a table of forecasts you can edit because I only see the forecasts when I make up the table.

For anyone new wanting to enter, the forecast contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies at nine locations across the U.S., in F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages.

The nine locations are DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... Happy new year ...

[Scotty Lightning]

January!

 

 DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0        1.0       0.5       0.5     1.5     1.5     0.5     1.0       0.5

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9     -2.5    -2.4    -2.6     -0.8    +1.1    +0.7   +1.2   +0.4

[hudsonvalley21]

January 2026

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.4    -1.2     -1.4     -1.5   +0.7    +1.9    -0.3    +2.1    +0.2

[bkviking]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.5     -1.4   -1.2    -1.6     0.9    +1.0    +0.5   +1.6  +1.0

[wxallannj]

  DCA _  NYC _  BOS _ ORD _    ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 +0.5     -0.4     -0.7    -0.4      +2.5    +2.2    +2.0  +1.6   +0.7 

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -2.1

NYC:  -2.2

BOS:  -2.3

ORD:  -1.8

ATL:  -0.6

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  +1.1

PHX:  +2.1

SEA:  +1.3

[donsutherland1]

DCA _  NYC _  BOS _ ORD _    ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     -1.9     -2.0    -0.2       2.2     3.8     2.0     2.7       2.0 

[Roger Smith]

-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 _ -1.5 _ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Thanks for doing it Roger.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     -1.2    -1.7    -2.5     +1.0    +2.7    +1.5   +3.5   +0.7

[Rjay]

DCA: 0.0

 

NYC: 0.0

 

BOS: 0.0

 

ORD: 0.0

 

ATL: +3.0

 

IAH: +4.0

 

DEN: +1.0

 

PHX: +2.5

 

SEA: 0.0

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.1     -1        -1.7     -0.5    +1.6    +1.9    +1.9    +1.6      +1

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Glad to see all of you wanting to continue, will perhaps send invites to some part-time participants of recent times too.

You can edit any of those forecasts up until afternoon of Jan 2nd when I start working on a table of forecasts. 

A lot of the scoring work for last year's contest has been done, just adjusting a few numbers as final data reports come in. ORD was -3.5 with a +14.3 week 22nd to 28th. Now that's bizarre. 

[dmillz25]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-2.0    -2.5    -1.5    +0.5   +1.7    +2.5   +3.0  +2.0    +1.5

havent done this in like 6 years but im back!

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.7    -0.6    -0.5     0.3      2.7     3.3     0.5    -0.7    -0.8

[Rhino16]

tossing some numbers out: hopefully not too late! I keep saying I’ll be consistent but maybe for real this time! 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
 

3.0 _ 2.3 _ 1.5 _ -0.2 _ 3.5 _ 3.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.9 _ 1.5

[Roger Smith]

__ Table of forecasts for January 2026 __

____

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Rhino16 __________________________ +3.0 _+2.3 _+1.5 ___ -0.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 ___ -0.4 _-0.9 _+1.5

Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +0.5 ___+0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

wxallannj ________________________ +0.5 _-0.4 _-0.7 ___ -0.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 ___ +2.0 _+1.6 _+0.7

RJay ______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __+3.0 _+4.0 ___+1.0 _+2.5 __0.0

____ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

hudsonvalley21 __________________ -0.4 _-1.2 _-1.4 ___ -1.5 _ +0.7 _ +1.9 ___ -0.3 _ +2.1 _ +0.2

StormchaserChuck1 _____________ -0.5 _-1.2 _ -1.7 ___ -2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.7 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.7

DonSutherland1 _________________ -0.5 _ -1.9 _ -2.0 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+3.8 ___ +2.0 _ +2.7 _ +2.0

___ consensus ___________________-0.6 _ -1.2 _ -1.4 __ -0.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +1.1 __ +1.6 _ +0.9   

RodneyS _________________________ -0.7 _-0.6 _-0.5 ___ +0.3 _+2.7 _+3.3 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.8

so_whats_happening _____________-1.1 __-1.0 _ -1.7 ___ -0.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 ___ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +1.0

BKViking _________________________-1.5 _ -1.4 _ -1.2 ___ -1.6 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.6 _+1.0

Tom _____________________________ -1.9 _ -2.5 _-2.4 ___ -2.6 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 ____+0.7 _+1.2 _ +0.4

dmillz25 __________________________ -2.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.7 _+2.5 ___ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.5

wxdude64 ________________________-2.1 _ -2.2 _-2.3 ___ -1.8 _-0.6 _+0.6 ____ +1.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.3

Roger Smith ______________________-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _+2.0 ___ +4.5 _+3.5 _+1.0

==============================

Persistence (Dec 2025) __________-4.4 _-5.3 _-4.4 ____-3.5 _+1.7 _+4.0 ___ +11.1 _ +7.4 _ +3.2

=================

Highest and lowest forecasts (excluding persistence) are color coded; Normal is lowest for IAH and tied lowest for SEA.

 

[Roger Smith]

A look at anomalies and projections, plus updates on seasonal snowfall ...

_____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

__(anom 1-16) ______+2.0 _+3.1 _+2.8 ___ +6.7 _+6.8 _+8.3 __+10.2 _+4.8 _+2.7

__(anom 1-25) ______-0.8 _-0.2 _+0.6 ___ -0.6 _+3.3 _+4.3 __ +3.2 _ +4.5 _+0.1

17_(p anom 1-31) ___ -2.0 _-1.5 _-2.0 ____ -0.5 _+1.5 _+3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0

26_(p anom 1-31)___ -3.0 _-3.0 _-2.5 ____ -3.0 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ 0.0

(17th) _ Extreme cold will dominate eastern and central regions in second half of January and will even cut into the large positive anomaly at DEN for a few days but will not reach PHX and will have less impact on the southeast. I could imagine even lower outcomes than shown in the east as these projections require an anomaly of about -6F now to 31st. Some days will average -15 to -20 anomalies. Snowfall reports below will be updated in this post whenever necessary. The end of Jan temp anomalies will be updated around the 26th and preliminary scoring may be posted after that update.

(26th) _ Much colder anomalies in most places now, so I have (as expected to some extent) revised some of the projections a little. Also the snowfall contest numbers are updated after the big storm this past weekend. Data to mid-day 26th ... will continue to update snowfall data, and will do the final monthly anomalies and scoring on Feb 1st. (may post preliminary scores before that).  

 

____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

snowfall to 1-26______8.5" _21.1" _29.8" __28.6"_ 33.2"_ 59.7"__13.4"_ 0.0" _ 52.4"

[Roger Smith]

__ Table of scoring for January 2026 __

____ to be adjusted on Feb 1st, now using estimates in previous post ____

FORECASTER ____________________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL

Rhino16 __________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 20 _020 _ 44 _ 40 _ 60 _ 144 _164 _ 22 _ 12 _ 70 _104 ___268

Scotty Lightning _________________ 20 _ 20 _ 60 _ 100 _ 30 _ 80 _100 _210 _310 _ 40 _ 50 _ 90 _180 ___490

wxallannj _________________________30 _ 48 _ 64 _ 142 _ 48 _ 60 _ 86 _ 194 _336 _ 70 _ 62 _ 86 _218 ___554

RJay ______________________________40 _ 40 _ 50 _ 130 _ 40 _ 50 _ 50 _140 _270 _ 50 _ 80 _100 _230 ___500

____ Normal _______________________40 _ 40 _ 50 _ 130 _ 40 _ 90 _ 70 _200 _330 _ 30 _ 30 _100 _160 ___490

hudsonvalley21 __________________ 48 _ 44 _ 78 _ 170 _ 70 _ 96 _ 92 _ 258 _428 _ 24 _ 72 _ 96 _ 192 ___620

StormchaserChuck1 ______________50 _ 44 _ 84 _ 178 _ 90 _ 90 _ 76 _ 256 _434 _ 60 _100 _ 86 _246 ___680

DonSutherland1 __________________ 50 _ 58 _ 90 _ 198 _ 44 _ 66 _ 54 _ 164 _362 _ 70 _ 84 _ 60 _218 ___580

___ consensus __________________ 52 _ 64 _ 78 _ 194 _ 46 _ 78 _ 88 _ 212 _ 406 _ 52 _ 62 _ 82 _196 ___ 602   

RodneyS _________________________ 54 _ 52 _ 60 _ 166 _ 34 _ 56 _ 64 _ 154 _320 _ 40 _ 44 _ 84 _168 ___488

so_whats_happening _____________62 _ 60 _ 84 _ 206 _ 50 _ 78 _ 92 _ 220 _426 _ 68 _ 62 _ 80 _210 ___636

BKViking _________________________ 70 _ 68 _ 74 _ 212 _ 72 _ 92 _ 90 _ 254 _466 _ 40 _ 62 _ 80 _182 ___648

Tom ______________________________ 78 _ 90 _ 98 _266_ 92 _ 74 _ 92 _ 258 _ 524 _ 44 _ 54 _ 92 _190 ___714

dmillz25 __________________________ 80 _ 90 _ 80 _250 _ 30 _ 76 _ 80 _ 186 _ 436 _ 90 _ 70 _ 70 _230 ___666

wxdude64 ________________________ 82 _ 84 _ 96 _262 _ 76 _ 78 _ 82 _ 236 _ 498 _ 52 _ 72 _ 74 _196 ___694

Roger Smith ______________________ 90 _ 96 _ 92 _278 _ 70 _ 90 _ 90 _ 250 _ 528 _ 80 _100 _ 80 _260 ___788

==============================

Persistence (Dec 2025) __________ 72 _ 54 _ 62 _ 188 _ 90 _ 76 _ 50 _ 216 _ 404 _ 00 _ 22 _ 36 _ 058 ___462 

____________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

DCA, NYC would be wins for Roger Smith with coldest forecasts.

BOS would be a win for Tom and a loss for Roger Smith (an outcome -27 is a tie and anything colder a win for RS)

ORD would be a win for Tom with coldest forecast.

ATL does not qualify at 0.5, would be a win-loss situation below -0.3

IAH does not qualify at +1.5, would be a win-loss situation at or below +1.0.

DEN could be a win for dmillz25 (+3.0) and a loss for Roger Smith (+4.5). Win for RS above +3.8

PHX would be shared win for StormchaserChuck and Roger Smith with highest forecasts.

SEA would be a win for RJay (and Normal) with lowest forecast.

=================

[Roger Smith]

Post your February forecasts, due to storm situation will extend penalty free deadline to 06z FEB 2nd.

I may change my mind but to start us off, 

-5.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.5 _ -6.5 _ -6.0 _ -5.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0