2026 forecast contest thread -- call for Jan 2026 forecasts

[Roger Smith]

With the new year approaching, I am terminating the 2025 contest thread with the results of Dec 2025 and the annual contest, and moving all new activity over to this thread where you can post Jan 2026 forecasts at any time, as is our custom in January, no late penalties will fall until later into the first week, let's say for sure no penalties before end of Jan 2nd, so take your time and post / edit freely -- if you don't see a table of forecasts you can edit because I only see the forecasts when I make up the table.

For anyone new wanting to enter, the forecast contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies at nine locations across the U.S., in F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages.

The nine locations are DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... Happy new year ...

[Scotty Lightning]

January!

 

 DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0        1.0       0.5       0.5     1.5     1.5     0.5     1.0       0.5

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9     -2.5    -2.4    -2.6     -0.8    +1.1    +0.7   +1.2   +0.4

[hudsonvalley21]

January 2026

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.4    -1.2     -1.4     -1.5   +0.7    +1.9    -0.3    +2.1    +0.2

[bkviking]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.5     -1.4   -1.2    -1.6     0.9    +1.0    +0.5   +1.6  +1.0

[wxallannj]

  DCA _  NYC _  BOS _ ORD _    ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 +0.5     -0.4     -0.7    -0.4      +2.5    +2.2    +2.0  +1.6   +0.7 

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -2.1

NYC:  -2.2

BOS:  -2.3

ORD:  -1.8

ATL:  -0.6

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  +1.1

PHX:  +2.1

SEA:  +1.3

[donsutherland1]

DCA _  NYC _  BOS _ ORD _    ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     -1.9     -2.0    -0.2       2.2     3.8     2.0     2.7       2.0 

[Roger Smith]

-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 _ -1.5 _ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Thanks for doing it Roger.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     -1.2    -1.7    -2.5     +1.0    +2.7    +1.5   +3.5   +0.7

[Rjay]

DCA: 0.0

 

NYC: 0.0

 

BOS: 0.0

 

ORD: 0.0

 

ATL: +3.0

 

IAH: +4.0

 

DEN: +1.0

 

PHX: +2.5

 

SEA: 0.0

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.1     -1        -1.7     -0.5    +1.6    +1.9    +1.9    +1.6      +1

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Glad to see all of you wanting to continue, will perhaps send invites to some part-time participants of recent times too.

You can edit any of those forecasts up until afternoon of Jan 2nd when I start working on a table of forecasts. 

A lot of the scoring work for last year's contest has been done, just adjusting a few numbers as final data reports come in. ORD was -3.5 with a +14.3 week 22nd to 28th. Now that's bizarre. 

[dmillz25]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-2.0    -2.5    -1.5    +0.5   +1.7    +2.5   +3.0  +2.0    +1.5

havent done this in like 6 years but im back!

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.7    -0.6    -0.5     0.3      2.7     3.3     0.5    -0.7    -0.8

[Rhino16]

tossing some numbers out: hopefully not too late! I keep saying I’ll be consistent but maybe for real this time! 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
 

3.0 _ 2.3 _ 1.5 _ -0.2 _ 3.5 _ 3.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.9 _ 1.5

[Roger Smith]

__ Table of forecasts for January 2026 __

____

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Rhino16 __________________________ +3.0 _+2.3 _+1.5 ___ -0.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 ___ -0.4 _-0.9 _+1.5

Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +0.5 ___+0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

wxallannj ________________________ +0.5 _-0.4 _-0.7 ___ -0.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 ___ +2.0 _+1.6 _+0.7

RJay ______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __+3.0 _+4.0 ___+1.0 _+2.5 __0.0

____ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

hudsonvalley21 __________________ -0.4 _-1.2 _-1.4 ___ -1.5 _ +0.7 _ +1.9 ___ -0.3 _ +2.1 _ +0.2

StormchaserChuck1 _____________ -0.5 _-1.2 _ -1.7 ___ -2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.7 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.7

DonSutherland1 _________________ -0.5 _ -1.9 _ -2.0 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+3.8 ___ +2.0 _ +2.7 _ +2.0

___ consensus ___________________-0.6 _ -1.2 _ -1.4 __ -0.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +1.1 __ +1.6 _ +0.9   

RodneyS _________________________ -0.7 _-0.6 _-0.5 ___ +0.3 _+2.7 _+3.3 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.8

so_whats_happening _____________-1.1 __-1.0 _ -1.7 ___ -0.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 ___ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +1.0

BKViking _________________________-1.5 _ -1.4 _ -1.2 ___ -1.6 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.6 _+1.0

Tom _____________________________ -1.9 _ -2.5 _-2.4 ___ -2.6 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 ____+0.7 _+1.2 _ +0.4

dmillz25 __________________________ -2.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.7 _+2.5 ___ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.5

wxdude64 ________________________-2.1 _ -2.2 _-2.3 ___ -1.8 _-0.6 _+0.6 ____ +1.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.3

Roger Smith ______________________-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _+2.0 ___ +4.5 _+3.5 _+1.0

==============================

Persistence (Dec 2025) __________-4.4 _-5.3 _-4.4 ____-3.5 _+1.7 _+4.0 ___ +11.1 _ +7.4 _ +3.2

=================

Highest and lowest forecasts (excluding persistence) are color coded; Normal is lowest for IAH and tied lowest for SEA.

 

[Roger Smith]

A look at anomalies and projections, plus an update on seasonal snowfall ...

____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

__(anom 1-16) _____+2.0 _+3.1 _+2.8 ___ +6.7 _+6.8 _+8.3 __+10.2 _+4.8 _+2.7

__(p anom 1-31) ___-2.0 _-1.5 _-2.0 ___ -0.5 _+1.5 _+3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0

 

(17th) _ Extreme cold will dominate eastern and central regions in second half of January and will even cut into the large positive anomaly at DEN for a few days but will not reach PHX and will have less impact on the southeast. I could imagine even lower outcomes than shown in the east as these projections require an anomaly of about -6F now to 31st. Some days will average -15 to -20 anomalies. Snowfall reports below will be updated in this post whenever necessary. The end of Jan temp anomalies will be updated around the 24th and preliminary scoring will be posted after that update. 

 

____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

snowfall to 1-17______1.6" __8.7" __5.4" __22.5"_ 24.7"_ 43.0"__ 7.9"_ 0.0" _ 36.3"