January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

GFS OP has the storm just offshore for Sunday. It made the trough sharper so it’s closer 

I’m hearing 18z Euro OP has come west for Sunday as well.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Entire tri-state area gets clobbered by an ice storm/sleet storm on the GFS 18z at 270 hours. It shows 16 at the surface, primary low around SC/TN, secondary low forming off the Delmarva coast. Completely laughable. But boggles my mind on how these models come up with this stuff.

Ensembles are pointing to an active pattern after the 20th. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

53 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

There is that weenie model that we would all love to see. Maybe the low a tad further east to avoid any mixing issues along the twin forks, south shore of LI. Likelihood of this 276 hour model being correct? Very low. Show it to me again when it is within 5 days, and it will get me interested in it.

 

bring those big snow totals further east and you will get a lot of snow weenies very excited. Even if this is for 360 hours out. :)

59 inches of snow in central Ohio in two weeks time? I don't think they've ever seen that in an entire season. Makes me think maybe this is over doing it a bit. 

[Wannabehippie]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

59 inches of snow in central Ohio in two weeks time? I don't think they've ever seen that in an entire season. Makes me think maybe this is over doing it a bit. 

That would literally be up to my nose. It is a complete joke, but it gave me a laugh.

 

[Wannabehippie]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles are pointing to an active pattern after the 20th. 

Active pattern sure, but 60 inches in 24 hours in central Ohio?

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Active pattern sure, but 60 inches in 24 hours in central Ohio?

Thats never going to happen.

[Wannabehippie]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thats never going to happen.

Yeah obviously. I mean maybe for the season in the lake effect area sure. But central Ohio? No way.

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I'm sure I'll see this in my FB feed in about an hour.  I'll post these here for fun, but never on FB...

44” for me by the end of the month?  I will go for the under on 6” for the balance of the month.  

[BoulderWX]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles are pointing to an active pattern after the 20th. 

Stop. Please just stop. 7 days out, do you ever learn. 

[psv88]

High today was 47, still 43 now. 
 

deep winter according to some!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

28 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

44” for me by the end of the month?  I will go for the under on 6” for the balance of the month.  

Yes only 34.6 for me. I'm hoping the 0Z run shifts the 40-50 inch line a little east. 

[Krs4Lfe]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

High today was 47, still 43 now. 
 

deep winter according to some!

I’m surprised at how long this thaw is. Really defined the first half of the month aside from the first 6 days that were average or well below average. Tomorrow is the 14th and we’ll still be 10 degrees above average. At this point it’s not a thaw, it’s a running theme that CONUS has been quite warm this month

[RU848789]

46 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

44” for me by the end of the month?  I will go for the under on 6” for the balance of the month.  

Actually, that was all from one storm from hour 252 to 300.  Insane storm.  

[RU848789]

Around 12/27 or so this board and other boards and a host of heavyweight professional meteorologists were posting (somewhat giddily by some) about how amazing the pattern looked for cold and probably snow for the next 2+ weeks.  Most of the good ones said this simply increased the probability of snow, but was no guarantee of it, as predicting that far in advance always comes with significant uncertainty and such patterns don't always verify.  And unfortunately most of us got some pretty cold weather for a week or so and then saw a warm-up that hasn't quite ended yet and very little snow.  

I'm not posting this to be critical, but I am curious what some of our pros/trusted folks would say about the level of confidence they might have for what looks to be a cold and potentially snowy pattern ahead for the last week in January and maybe beyond vs. the level of confidence they might have had back in late December.  

[NorthShoreWx]

47 minutes ago, psv88 said:

High today was 47, still 43 now. 
 

deep-six winter according to some!

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

                               This looks really GOOD

                                           Thoughts?

[eduggs]

ICON has snow I-95 N&W on Sun. The RDPS looks decent at 84hrs. Decent start to 0z.

[eduggs]

The RDPS looks good at the surface. But at 500mb it looks similar to the 0z GDPS, which developed a cutoff low and curled it into the Lakes. The ICON digs the trof base further south and goes neutral tilt, which is more conducive to a coastal SLP.

[Krs4Lfe]

Was just about to say that Icon has white rain for us on Sunday with some moderate snow inland. Also, we might catch a few snow showers Thursday evening during the anafront system. 

[eduggs]

Snows for 30 hours N&W of NYC on the ICON. Seems unlikely but fun to look at. A 6 hour period of steady rain or snow with flurries or light rain with the initial week overrunning seems more plausible. 

[TJW014]

Get ready for Lucy to pull the football by tomorrow or Thursday

[Krs4Lfe]

AI GFS showing a storm offshore, moderate precipitation for Sunday during afternoon and evening. You want more than ICON and AI GFS in your corner thouhh or you end up with a 1/16 repeat 

[MJO812]

Icon and Ai gfs bringing back the 18th

[MJO812]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

AI GFS showing a storm offshore, moderate precipitation for Sunday during afternoon and evening. You want more than ICON and AI GFS in your corner thouhh or you end up with a 1/16 repeat 

A storm is eventually going to happen with the PNA being positive. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

this looks really good the storm is a bit weak but that's a decent snow event 

 

GFS AI

[eduggs]

The GFS at 84hrs looks like it has a sharper shortwave with more vorticity crossing into North Dakota. I think that's the vorticity that sharpens the base of the trof a day or so later... we'll see... could be a slightly better trof for Sunday

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS at 84hrs looks like it has a sharper shortwave with more vorticity crossing into North Dakota. I think that's the vorticity that sharpens the base of the trof a day or so later... we'll see... could be a slightly better trof for Sunday

The GFS loves to dig and amplify stuff thouhh. Look what it did January 2025 and what it did for 1/16. It’s a known bias. Wouldn’t put any credence into it