January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[kvskelton]

47 minutes ago, kvskelton said:

Not sure if the 6z model froze at hour 57 but the Euro results on pivotal sure did!

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6z Euro appears to be underway once more on Pivotal. Just FYI. 

[GBOVolz]

Last 4 GFS ratioed runs. Just showing the trend, not the results.










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[TellicoWx]

2 hours ago, GBOVolz said:

Apparently the 2010 Christmas storm is an analog at the top of the list.




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Decent analog...globals struggle with deep cold and low levels being saturated 

[Tucker1027]

I’m not getting sucked back in…. Looks like I’m sucked in


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[TellicoWx]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

We got NAM'd!

 

I expect there to be some true old school nammings as we get closer lol

[GBOVolz]

I’m not getting sucked back in…. Looks like I’m sucked in


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We lose more than we win but that’s what makes winning more special. In my opinion, this would not be much fun if we lived in an area that got snow once a week.


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[GBOVolz]

I expect there to be some true old school nammings as we get closer lol

At least we don’t have to worry about temperatures this time. Feels like that’s usually 75% of the battle around here.


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[GBOVolz]

At least we don’t have to worry about temperatures this time. Feels like that’s usually 75% of the battle around here.


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Yeah….this was pretty stupid for me to say this.


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[Vol4Life]

12Z GEFS mean

[GBOVolz]

12Z GEFS mean

At 10/1. The app that I have been using is showing 20-1 Kuchera.


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[TellicoWx]

Not saying its locked in..but would not shock me if some HiRes spits out big numbers...extreme cold at 850, saturated 850s, plus their fine resolution = a model like the NAM hitting the Powerball for ingredients lol (whether its right or wrong who knows 100% yet)

[Kasper]

21 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Last 4 GFS ratioed runs. Just showing the trend, not the results.










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[Hurricaneguy]

If the last system shifted north, we are due this one shifting more to the west by Thursday. 

[Silas Lang]

If this shifts west, does it lead to an earlier onset? I guess from phasing earlier? Like could this storm sneak up on us with a west trend? 

[Reb]

Just now, Silas Lang said:

If this shifts west, does it lead to an earlier onset? I guess from phasing earlier? Like could this storm sneak up on us with a west trend? 

If it pans out this will sneak up on a lot of people. Combine mets and the public being gun shy over what happened with the last storm…no one will buy into it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro ticked back west a bit, but like Tellico, I'm now in the "let's see how hi res models handle this" camp

[housemtnTN]

19 minutes ago, Reb said:

If it pans out this will sneak up on a lot of people. Combine mets and the public being gun shy over what happened with the last storm…no one will buy into it.

You are absolutely right lol nobody is gonna buy it til people can't get anywhere.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, housemtnTN said:

You are absolutely right lol nobody is gonna buy it til people can't get anywhere.

And if you want a good snow in East TN, that is exactly how you want it. 

[John1122]

The Euro remains Dr. No. It only tends to badly miss when it shows snow. When it doesn't, lock it in usually.

[Bigbald]

Looks like the 12z Euro AI ticked east a hair, not sure it matters against what is an over whelmingly jump west on most models at 12z.  

[Vol4Life]

I really wish the GFS would be right for once.  It is trying to pop a low in the panhandle of Florida.  There’s a ton of potential with what it is showing.

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS/GEFS is going to have to have more support.  The 12z GEM-para does lend some support.  However, the GFS is on the far west side of guidance.  I still kind of think we are depending on the northern stream energy for snow, and not coastal backing.  That type of cold should bring snow showers with it.  The GFS isn't an outlier at this point, but it's close.  Other models are taking baby steps towards it, BUT...the window is rapidly narrowing for this to trend westward.  Our best path forward is for the northern stream system to be stronger.

[Carvers Gap]

When looking at the weeklies...the pattern begins to reload around the 8-9th.  I tend to agree w/ JB that the next really good window after this weekend(excluding clippers) is around mid-Feb.  And that maybe could be a good window.....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

New weather model/ data site:
https://aguacerowx.com/app/

 

 

[nrgjeff]

FWIW this weekend, the NBM high-res ensemble in on board with light snow northeast Tenn. plus the usual Upper Plateau and of course Mountains. 

Ensemble product isn't picking up on what MRX has in the forecaster's discussion AFD for overnight, but some short-term high-res models pick up on the said flurries or snow showers tonight. 

Also tonight, freezing fog in the MEM CWA is another issue worth noting. No new accum. Just possible early Wednesday travel headaches. 

[TellicoWx]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The GFS/GEFS is going to have to have more support.  The 12z GEM-para does lend some support.  However, the GFS is on the far west side of guidance.  I still kind of think we are depending on the northern stream energy for snow, and not coastal backing.  That type of cold should bring snow showers with it.  The GFS isn't an outlier at this point, but it's close.  Other models are taking baby steps towards it, BUT...the window is rapidly narrowing for this to trend westward.  Our best path forward is for the northern stream system to be stronger.

Definitely 100% northern vort dependent (which I believe only the HiRes will sort out at the very end). Coastal placement is gonna have very little impact imo.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Definitely 100% northern vort dependent (which I believe only the HiRes will sort out at the very end). Coastal placement is gonna have very little impact imo.

Yep.  The best that a coastal could do is to back the flow which is basically what the GFS and GEM-para do.  I have not looked closely, but I almost wonder if there is a weak slp scooting through the Piedmont or a lee side low(LSL).  But really, this is kind of a mix of a clipper and an anafront.  Can we get a phase?  IDK about that.

[TellicoWx]

This setup is like a clipper system..except instead of running up the gut Johnny Majors style clipper track...its track is more of a Philly Special lol

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep.  The best that a coastal could do is to back the flow which is basically what the GFS and GEM-para do.  I have not looked closely, but I almost wonder if there is a weak slp scooting through the Piedmont or a lee side low(LSL).  But really, this is kind of a mix of a clipper and an anafront.  Can we get a phase?  IDK about that.

The lee side low has popped up a few times.

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The lee side low has popped up a few times.

I think eastern folks should not tap out just yet because of this possible feature..............  It won't take much to be a decent event with such high ratios.