January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Reb]

8 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Another 2 shifts like that and ETN is in business 

Man if I had a dollar for every time I said that the past 2 weeks I’d be living high on the hog!

[John1122]

Canadian is a big run from Cookeville and points east it looks like. 

It was really good with this last storm and the first turd in the punch bowl showing massive warm noses. Hopefully it's right here. 

[Reb]

CMC looking good for ETN  here we go again. Lol

[John1122]

The Canadian is single digits to low 10s while snowing. 

[Vol4Life]

Just now, John1122 said:

The Canadian is single digits to low 10s while snowing. 

The ratios would be amazing.  20:1 likely

[John1122]

 

[John1122]

The Canadian wound the energy up over west Tennessee instead of East/Middle Tennessee and that was the response. 

[Reb]

Just now, John1122 said:

The Canadian wound the energy up over west Tennessee instead of East/Middle Tennessee and that was the response. 

I will say, this has a huge boom or bust potential. I’ll gladly swing at this one and potentially miss vs what he had with the ice etc

[Matthew70]

If Euro AI says we have a chance then I will place my bets.  We have cold & it looks like it’s here to stay.  Waiting patiently for our chance in middle that does not include ice! 

[WintryMixmaster]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian wound the energy up over west Tennessee instead of East/Middle Tennessee and that was the response. 

Weird how it pulled west from 12z but also went out to sea faster and ended up much worse for PA, NJ, and NY. I thought for sure it was going to crawl up the coast

[TellicoWx]

GFS joined the others somewhat on the general placement of the 850 vort (circled in blue)...lift=somewhat of a check. DGZ near the ground=check (mountains aiding in the lift). 850 saturated and trapped in valley=check. Any minor change in that 850 vort placement will light fuse so to speak for the GFS (was really close). Now just hold those ingredients for next 4 days lol. The approach of the center of the lobe of cold air alot will also help enhance the lift by squeezing everything out.

[Vol4Life]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian wound the energy up over west Tennessee instead of East/Middle Tennessee and that was the response. 

Do you think there’s more room for that low pressure to hug the coast a little more or come just inland?  

[TellicoWx]

Take where the 850 vort is placed on the GFS and overlay that onto the CMC snowfall map...you can see the where the forcing is breaking out the snowfall.

[Reb]

6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

GFS joined the others somewhat on the general placement of the 850 vort (circled in blue)...lift=somewhat of a check. DGZ near the ground=check (mountains aiding in the lift). 850 saturated and trapped in valley=check. Any minor change in that 850 vort placement will light fuse so to speak for the GFS (was really close). Now just hold those ingredients for next 4 days lol. The approach of the center of the lobe of cold air alot will also help enhance the lift by squeezing everything out.

This is some good stuff here!

[TellicoWx]

We saw the effect of trapped moisture with just enough lift last night and this morning..now place that DGZ near the surface and instead of mist you get nickles and dimes 

[John1122]

UKIE was a major westward shift too. Only helps the far east but it was about like the GFS. 

[Vol4Life]

GEFS mean looks better at 00Z compared to 18Z

[Math/Met]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

We saw the effect of trapped moisture with just enough lift last night and this morning..now place that DGZ near the surface and instead of mist you get nickles and dimes 

There are several things I like I about this setup for us. I don't think we need the perfect track to see a good snow with this. We just don't want it to be too far east. 

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

There are several things I like I about this setup for us. I don't think we need the perfect track to see a good snow with this. We just don't want it to be too far east. 

I agree..vort is 50-100 miles east of where CMC has it most the eastern Valley loses the lift needed. The surface low off the coast only offers maybe some better moisture transport to the 850. Think we are 100% dependent on the 850...surface LP is just too far off (unless the whole setup can go negative tilt and phase together sooner)

[John1122]

Euro Ai is blah. 

[Stovepipe]

MRX mentioning the potential for some high ratio snow next weekend and close to record breaking cold.

By Friday, troughing to the northwest will deepen and become more
broad with the Arctic high reaching 1045mb or greater as it
progresses into the Great Plains. There will also be focus in the
Gulf and Atlantic where a strong system is expected to develop and
track up the coast through the weekend. Based on the latest data,
this track continues to keep impacts well to our east. However, as
the Arctic high expands into the area, moisture may be sufficient
for light snow Friday into Saturday. QPF totals currently looks to
be light, but the extent of cold air suggests snow ratios would be
high. Regardless, the more significant impact will be another
expansion of bitterly cold air, potentially worse than we are
currently seeing. Ensemble data suggests 850mb temperatures to drop
below -15 Celsius, possibly even near -20 Celsius. Values this low
are nearing record values and certainly not seen with regularity.
Highs on Saturday may struggle to get out of the teens for many with
single digits for some a couple of nights. Saturday and Sunday will
likely be below freezing area-wide, at a minimum. So any snow that
does fall could be here for a few days.

 

[fountainguy97]

Heading east overnight. Not surprised. Weathernext leading the way. It has ticked east the last 4 runs.

It's amazing how we are nearly in the same boat as last storm. GFS is still a hit but it's behind the euro and weather next which gives us false hope.  The only difference is the cmc is still a hit as well. Still worth watching but just on the back burner as a side dish no one really intends to eat. 
 

just hit 6.0 this morning. Chilly.

[Carvers Gap]

It looks like the 6z GFS is also west of its 0z run.  Close call w/ overnight modeling.

[GBOVolz]

Apparently the 2010 Christmas storm is an analog at the top of the list.




.

[nrgjeff]

Oh brother! I was in the middle of relo from DFW to CHA. For Christmas I told my wife I'd fly back to DFW in hopes of warmer weather. She asked about snow here. Keep in mind a month out. I said no way!

Snows in Chatty and we miss the white Christmas. Worse yet, it was a cold rain in DFW around 40 deg. Anyway that's not happening again this weekend. I'm too traumatized by the memory to forecast greater detail, ha!

That's one I'd never get over, except we had a saving grace actually a year prior. DFW snow showers and dusting+ Christmas Eve 2009. 

[Daniel Boone]

Low of 1 Degree here at my House. -2 and Minus 3 reported in parts of the County.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We got NAM'd!

 

[Carvers Gap]

Did the 6z GoogleAI trend West?  JB is saying it jogged well west.  I can't tell if that is just over the NE or here as well.  With the 6z GFS, 0z CMC, and 0z Euro west of their previous runs....good trends, but will they hold?  No idea.  Did the 6z Euro freeze at hour 57?

[kvskelton]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Did the 6z Euro freeze at hour 57?

Not sure if the 6z model froze at hour 57 but the Euro results on pivotal sure did!

Sent from my SM-S926U using Tapatalk
 

 

[Vol4Life]

I’m liking where the 12z GFS is heading.