January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Buckle up, ya'll!

[nrgjeff]

Thank you! Yeah all the WFOs have that experimental graphical hazards. It's so damn clunky I rarely look. Perhaps this is the week I change my behavior. Thanks again @jaxjagman

My next goal in life is to reel in 3 inches of snow. Not 3 weeks without power!

[GBOVolz]

I’m hoping this is not a trend to stay south of most of TN.

At this point, we need it to be pretty much where it’s at. The lesser of two evils is a suppressed storm at this stage.


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[fountainguy97]

AIFS still a big cutter but much better than last night. Similar to UK and CMC. It held the Baja back more. But still brings it all with it

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Then AIFS might be just a bit different.....

It looks like it ticked south a smidge, but it reeaaaalllly wants to get the big hp out in front of the system and then have the LP attack it. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z AIFS just moved off its mark.  Much stronger high presence.  

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z AIFS just moved off its mark.  Much stronger high presence.  

Yep. Not a full "cave" but it jumped south enough to be inline with UK and CMC.  The cone of uncertainty continues to shrink

[nrgjeff]

Right on the MEM public site, front page not experimental. 50% six days out. That's like SPC dropping a Moderate+ Day 3.

I'm not one to get the hype train rolling ahead of Day 3, esp not Day 5, but this one is pretty likely. Despite some path differences all the globals are locked in on a major winter storm in the South.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

It looks like it ticked south a smidge, but it reeaaaalllly wants to get the big hp out in front of the system and then have the LP attack it. 

 

5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

AIFS still a big cutter but much better than last night. Similar to UK and CMC. It held the Baja back more. But still brings it all with it

Not a major cutter.  Significant changes w/ surface pressure anomalies.  Much colder run, and less punch through middle TN.  TRI doesn't even get above freezing during the event.  6-10 degrees colder over much of E TN.  Major move.

[Stovepipe]

1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

Right on the MEM public site, front page not experimental. 50% six days out. That's like SPC dropping a Moderate+ Day 3

I'm not one to get the hype train rolling ahead of Day 3, but this one is pretty likely. Despite some path differences all the globals are locked in on a major winter storm in the South.

[fountainguy97]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

 

Not a major cutter.  Significant changes w/ surface pressure anomalies.  Much colder run, and less punch through middle TN.  TRI doesn't even get above freezing during the event.  6-10 degrees colder over much of E TN.  Major move.

Tick tick tick

[AMZ8990]

 

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

 

Not a major cutter.  Significant changes w/ surface pressure anomalies.  Much colder run, and less punch through middle TN.  TRI doesn't even get above freezing during the event.  6-10 degrees colder.  Major move.

Definitely colder, at 144 those temps for our neighbors in Oklahoma and Arkansas were at a balmy 5 degrees.  Low teens across the forum

[GBOVolz]

AIFS on pivotal?


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[Weatheriscool]

Just now, AMZ8990 said:

Euro has single digits temps 

Definitely colder, at 144 those temps for our neighbors in Oklahoma and Arkansas were at a balmy 5 degrees.  Low teens across the forum

Maps, maps!

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

 

Not a major cutter.  Significant changes w/ surface pressure anomalies.  Much colder run, and less punch through middle TN.  TRI doesn't even get above freezing during the event.  6-10 degrees colder over much of E TN.  Major move.

Cold 1050 highs don't come toward Iowa every year.  Maybe the AI models are starting to get into a time frame less reliant on reanalysis............

 

[AMZ8990]

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not a major cutter.  Significant changes w/ surface pressure anomalies.  Much colder run, and less punch through middle TN.  TRI doesn't even get above freezing during the event.  6-10 degrees colder over much of E TN.  Major move.

Anything even remotely like a Miller A/B hybrid triggers me lol. 

[Scottie16]

Liking the Euro so far.


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[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro presses the high into place by 111.  This thing isn't coming north.

[TellicoWx]

8 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Looks awfully like the other ice hits...freeze line to east of TN/NC border is lights off for the valley unless LP is super amped

[Carvers Gap]

In fact, this could be a very different run of the 12z Euro.  

[GBOVolz]

Anything even remotely like a Miller A/B hybrid triggers me lol. 

Miller B’s put me in a fetal position, overrunning events are not far behind Miller B’s for me.


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[nrgjeff]

12Z Euro has a little more dynamic cooling of the column to get the change to snow; but, only after still depositing a bunch of ice. Little steps.. but verbatim it's still trouble. 

In other news Space Wx Prediction Center has a G4 watch for tonight. While staying up all night watching wx models, don't forget to check the northern sky.

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z Euro presses the high into place by 111.  This thing isn't coming north.

South of Middle TN?

[Save the itchy algae!]

Looks awfully like the other ice hits...freeze line to east of TN/NC border is lights off for the valley unless LP is super amped

Speaking of amped, that storm signature showing up across the models on the 29th


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[John1122]

Looks like far SE TN and N Alabama is still hanging onto ice by just after midnight Saturday but everyone else in the forum is snow.

[GBOVolz]

In fact, this could be a very different run of the 12z Euro.  

We are in that timeframe where the euro kinda loses its mind for a couple runs.


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[nrgjeff]

That's the phased Miller A I refer to a few posts ago. Would be a true bomb!

3 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

Speaking of amped, that storm signature showing up across the models on the 29th .

But this 12Z Euro is a combo of that HP anchoring and dynamic cooling (for this weekend).

These models are a frickin' buffet line!

[Scottie16]

In fact, this could be a very different run of the 12z Euro.  

More amped and further south it seems


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[Scottie16]

12Z Euro has a little more dynamic cooling of the column to get the change to snow; but, only after still depositing a bunch of ice. Little steps.. but verbatim it's still trouble. 
In other news Space Wx Prediction Center has a G4 watch for tonight. While staying up all night watching wx models, don't forget to check the northern sky.

One must wonder how space weather effects winter weather


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