January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Scottie16]

.

[Matthew70]

54 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

It looks like the region stays cold the majority of that next week. More rolling blackouts from TVA?

May not have to worry about that if it’s a crippling ice storm. 

[Matthew70]

Nice to be able to track something. 

[Weatheriscool]

My weather chanel app went from 1 to 3 inches Friday night 1 to 3 Saturday and 1 to 3 Saturday night to now it say 1 to 3 Friday night 5 to 8 Saturday and 1 to 3 Saturday night that would shut nashvegas for few days lol

[Scottie16]

Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Another day of lake effect snow is likely across the Great Lakes
Thursday, with potentially heavy amounts piling up downwind of Lake
Ontario after a snowy short range period too. Meanwhile, some
light to moderate rain is forecast across the Southeast Thursday,
while the low aloft could help produce some precipitation across
southern California. Then precipitation is forecast to spread
across parts of the Southwest, the southern/central Rockies, and
across much of the southeastern U.S. into Friday. With the cold air
in place, ice and snow are likely across much of the southern tier
in likely a notable winter storm. The precipitation, including
snow and ice, is forecast to spread east into the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, lasting until Sunday and potentially
spreading north into the Northeast. Model guidance has converged on
the potential for an impactful storm, but it will take additional
time to refine the details of precipitation amounts and type, so
continue to monitor forecasts. Elsewhere, precipitation could
increase across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies this
weekend as shortwaves move through.


-NWS


.

[Stovepipe]

55 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Models have been very inconsistent and uncertainty is high for the latter periods, but there is general agreement that a system will
bring more precipitation to the area sometime in the Friday/Saturday/Sunday time frame. Right now models suggest a mixed bag of precip types, with both rain and snow possible, but given how far out it still is as well as the poor model agreement and consistency, we will need to monitor and wait for more clarity on
the details as we get closer.

-NWS MORRISTOWN


.

[Scottie16]

Goes completely against the other discussion lol


.

[fountainguy97]

Overnight ensembles are juicy. Lots to be ironed out but you can clearly see the classic CAD boundaries setting up. Hopefully the zr outputs end up being a lot of sleet.

 

the NBM shows the footprint well.

 

[*Flash*]

What the!?!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Random 3am wishcast thoughts, that I'm not rolling out of bed on a Monday AM to type at 3am:

1. Does the relative coarseness or smoothness of the resolution of the higher res OP Euro vs Euro AIFS impact how it resolves the the Baja low?

Example:

 

2. Although once the Euro AIFS locked in for the past weekend system it ticked NW, this is a different set up. The AIFS began to resolve the specific details in the shorter ranges and the room to wiggle there was NW with a s/w digging more. In this scenario does the cold high perhaps verifying stouter closer to go time do the opposite and work against the low wanting to cut poleward? 

 

3. And finally, here's some real weenie hopium: Does the fact that the Euro AIFS is trained on lots of old data means it is more likely to see more common scenarios, like the Miller A/B hybrid it depicts at 6z, than a once in every 50 years southern slider like Jan 1988?

 

 

Not gonna lie, I'm pretty set on a Miller A/B hybrid now (pretty much based on the Euro AIFS still trending more amped and north) with a low cutting up through the East TN Valley and hoping for less ice in that situation. I will take a cold rain over ice 100% of the time. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro:

 

Ticked north a bit:

6z:                                                                                                            0z:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

1. Does the relative coarseness or smoothness of the resolution of the higher res OP Euro vs Euro AIFS impact how it resolves the the Baja low?

Here's a comparison on weatherbells graphics of the 6z Euro and 0z Euro:

Note the shortwave the higher res Euro picks up diving in through the Dakotas. That would work to keep some suppression in play

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are the 6z EPS members for your viewing pleasure:

 

[Weatheriscool]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's a comparison on weatherbells graphics of the 6z Euro and 0z Euro:

Note the shortwave the higher res Euro picks up diving in through the Dakotas. That would work to keep some suppression in play

Still depicts a disruptive, plowable snow for most all of the state. 

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Weatheriscool said:

Still depicts a disruptive, plowable snow for most all of the state. 

And I will add, we will probably make a run at zero or below those that have a snowpack for Monday morning next week 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Still depicts a disruptive, plowable snow for most all of the state. 

Euro does, but not the Euro AIFS

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro does, but not the Euro AIFS

Which has done better this season? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Weatheriscool said:

Which has done better this season? 

AIFS

[Holston_River_Rambler]

At least the WPC isn't entirely leaning into the AIFS

 

[Mrwolf1972]

Why is the aifs the only model that's showing the storm so far north. 

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Why is the aifs the only model that's showing the storm so far north. 

That is the question of the hour, the latest GFS had the storm fairly far south; likely wont know track for another few runs of the models I would guess, though they all, as opposed to what some weather offices have said, have shown remarkable agreement that there will be at least some sort of system next weekend. 

[Coach B]

11 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Why is the aifs the only model that's showing the storm so far north. 

It's not the only one. The UKMet and GFS AI are both far north solutions as well. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z AIFS Euro EPS is almost identical to the 6z Euro…looks like they may have fixed the algorithm for the ensemble at wxbell.  

General agreement right now between deterministic models and their ensembles and the AIFS ensemble. Either way, four days to go(five for some), this could change.  

Right now the 6z AIFS is an increasingly bonified cutter.   The AIFS has change quite a bit overnight.  The AI models handle hp over the top completely differently.  Honestly, I don’t trust the AI models as they have each burned me this winter pretty badly…I will have to dig back through the Dec or Jan thread and find it.  The AIFS Euro has been very warm d5-15 and badly so…but sometimes it swings very cold.  I have found the Euro deterministic to be more dependable in my own experience as we have gotten deeper into winter.  The AI models look over amped….but deterministic models seem to be inconsistently handling the Baja low.  The AIFS models may or may not be mishandling hp over the GL area…deterministic models have been sometimes too aggressive with cold this winter.
 

When looking at the model verification graph posted by Tellico last night….the AIFS was kind of mid.  The best model was the AIFS Euro ensemble, then the EPS, and then the Euro.  Now, admittedly maybe that was just for that moment in time.  As for the AiGFS…it has been completely awful at all ranges.  I give it no credence.  The UKMET/AIFS is a formidable pair and cannot be discounted.
 

As for now, neither is budging.   I had fully expected the deterministic models and their ensembles to cave to the AI.  They have not.  In fact, they may have trended a hair south from 0z or only nudged a hair north.  

[Uncle Nasty]

Euro does, but not the Euro AIFS

Both of these maps accurately depicts Chattanooga 95% of the time when there is a good snow in Tennessee. Not complaining, just stating facts. We have to have 100% perfect conditions for a good snow here.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[*Flash*]

The Euro AI solution is troubling, and I hope it's wrong somehow. I’m less concerned about less snow and more concerned about more ice! Someone is going to get at gnarly ice storm out of this, and I hope it's not our forum.

[Carvers Gap]

Found these 0z comparisons at Dacula Wx...stilll working to find the AI verification in comparison.  They have data fo the last calendar year.  Notice the UKMET verification at 5 days?  It is almost as bad as the GFS.  The EPS and Euro models score highest at d4-5.  The WPC medium range desk(conveniently? lol) scores the highest.  The closer to the 1 models get...the better they are.

 

[TellicoWx]

Gonna wait on 12z run (possibly 18z)...but right now I wouldn't put 0% chance for MBY for snow, but it ain't much higher. Leaning toward flip a coin ice or cold rain here. Dont like the subtle changes in the Euro Op..baby stepping toward the AIFs.

[AMZ8990]

I think the biggest positive is that we have most models on board with a winter storm for our general area. Details still need to be ironed out but the continuity is there amongst models for the most part.  Nice to have something inside 7 days to track. 

[GBOVolz]

Question… obviously the GFS/Euro use past events to help with modeling. Does the AI mods get samples from the GFS/Euro or is its algorithm separate from its originals. The reason I’m asking this is because we have had a lot of cutters since the AI mods have been out which would make sense why those are showing cutters now assuming they do not get past event samples from the original mods.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, GBOVolz said:

Question… obviously the GFS/Euro use past events to help with modeling. Does the AI mods get samples from the GFS/Euro or is its algorithm separate from its originals. The reason I’m asking this is because we have had a lot of cutters since the AI mods have been out which would make sense why those are showing cutters now assuming they do not get past event samples from the original mods.


.

Supposedly the Euro AI has been trained on 80 years of ERA 5 data