January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Scottie16]

Boarder counties might luck into some snow tonight/tomorrow.


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[Carvers Gap]

For kicks and giggles.  The 18z AIFS Euro EPS....the bulk of that is after the 23rd.  This is definitely on the high end of ensembles.  There are other models with much less.  I generally like to look at these for storm tracks.  Interestingly, the Carolina storm track....most of that doesn't fall w/ the ongoing storm.

 

[midwoodian]

The Tennessee basketball game was the sports equivalent to that Euro run. 

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[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, midwoodian said:

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Problem with the SEC is we beat up with each other,not sure we are the best conference,the big 10 is fairly solid compared to the SEC.NIL always plays a part in all sports now

Im not bashing Indiana,but when you have a alumni like Mark Cuban who invest millions of dollars  into that program which is pennies to us,they will always be relevant now, you wouldn't  think that in football in the past.

Bout sick of college sports now myself.NCAA is much to blame in part,the writing was on the wall with there greed and major conferences sucking up into them in the last couple decades,now its out of control.its broken with little hope of getting fixed

[John1122]

Icon buries Kentucky north of Daniel Boone,(shocker) gives us ice and throws a few crumbs our way (N of 40 of course) after the main event. (The crumbs would still be out best event this winter.)

 

[John1122]

The GFS(old unfaithful), through the same time frame as the Icon, has a light event with maybe snow this coming Thursday (higher elevations mainly). Then a epic rain storm (it will nail that from a week out), with a 1057 HP coming behind it down from Canada that will no doubt suppress things down to another WSW scenario in the deep south (south Georgia is under a winter storm warning now, their second in 11 months). 

[Matthew70]

19 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Problem with the SEC is we beat up with each other,not sure we are the best conference,the big 10 is fairly solid compared to the SEC.NIL always plays a part in all sports now

Im not bashing Indiana,but when you have a alumni like Mark Cuban who invest millions of dollars  into that program which is pennies to us,they will always be relevant now, you wouldn't  think that in football in the past.

Bout sick of college sports now myself.NCAA is much to blame in part,the writing was on the wall with there greed and major conferences sucking up into them in the last couple decades,now its out of control.its broken with little hope of getting fixed

To me college sports are dead.  Beck was asked if he went to class.  He has not been to class in 2 years because he graduated.  He takes online classes he said. Grown men playing college football.  Sickening.  Ok back to hopefully reeling in some SNOW!!

[Matthew70]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS(old unfaithful), through the same time frame as the Icon, has a light event with maybe snow this coming Thursday (higher elevations mainly). Then a epic rain storm (it will nail that from a week out), with a 1057 HP coming behind it down from Canada that will no doubt suppress things down to another WSW scenario in the deep south (south Georgia is under a winter storm warning now, their second in 11 months). 

The GFS has been atrocious but yep I could see it nailing the rain forecast.  

[Matthew70]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Icon buries Kentucky north of Daniel Boone,(shocker) gives us ice and throws a few crumbs our way (N of 40 of course) after the main event. (The crumbs would still be out best event this winter.)

 

Having the lights out with the cold temps expected.  That would be a hard pass for me. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

Problem with the SEC is we beat up with each other,not sure we are the best conference,the big 10 is fairly solid compared to the SEC.NIL always plays a part in all sports now
Im not bashing Indiana,but when you have a alumni like Mark Cuban who invest millions of dollars  into that program which is pennies to us,they will always be relevant now, you wouldn't  think that in football in the past.
Bout sick of college sports now myself.NCAA is much to blame in part,the writing was on the wall with there greed and major conferences sucking up into them in the last couple decades,now its out of control.its broken with little hope of getting fixed

Big 12 is better than both at basketball, that’s what we’re talking about right? Re Tennessee vs Kentucky

As far as pigskin it seems crazy that Indiana is just doing what most sec schools have been doing for a generation, but now that it’s legal and being done better by a non traditional power it’s suddenly not ok. Sec schools and the top 3 or 4 big ten schools are the reason we are in the mess we’re in. The ncaa is inept, yes, but this isn’t their doing. In football the sec largely hides from good outside competition, they don’t beat up on themselves as much as they sequester themselves and hope to skate by on name recognition, just like the top end of the big 10. It’s pathetic to any fan of the sport that doesn’t immediately align with one of those ~20 schools.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

After this last system, I think a "split the difference approach" to the 6z Euro AIFS and 6z GFS is probably reasonable for 1/24-5.

 

Not a bad look for the northern 2/3rds of TN.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I could certainly be wrong, but 120 - 150hours out is when the AIFS is getting dialed in, just a bit too progressive with its lower resolution. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The Euro AIFS ensemble's control was a real weenie run at 6z:

 

That said, I'm not sure how the AIFS ensemble is doing. I've seen people say it counts sleet as snow, and it overdoes the sorts of maps above. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

While waiting to see what the GFS poops out at 12z, I just noticed the 6z AIFS has a Lo RES triple phaser for the 28th:

 

 

 

 

 

[Reb]

GFS/CMC are what dreams are made of

[John1122]

The 12z GFS is nightmare fuel for mby. Fortunately it's the worst model on the planet currently.

[tnweathernut]

The Canadian is reminiscent of some of the east to west maulers I remember from being a kid in the 80s…….  
 

It’s a winter lover’s dream with……Snow on snow with back to back systems with less than 24 hours between them.  

[Weatheriscool]

16 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The 12z GFS is nightmare fuel for mby. Fortunately it's the worst model on the planet currently.

That's funny but true

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM and GFS runs are excellent runs.  The GFS has tended to trend north with everything this winter.  The GEM is just a mauler.  Right where we want them right now.  There is a very good met on Volquest who is saying next weekend is showing up strongly on ensembles as a winter storm for E TN(which is where he lives...that could encompass much more area...kind of his backyard post).

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z AIFS Euro is why we need the GFS south of us.  Need that blend!  That said the 12z AIFS EURO EPS....is nice for the entire forum.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS does not provide much support to the deterministic run at 12z, but...plenty of support exists for a slider over much of the forum area, and maybe more than one.  The 12z GEM is the best cast - so far.  I drops 5-10" over most of the forum.  We have said more than once this winter that it resembled 95-96' (light) in many ways.  That winter kind of arrived a bit after the mid point.  

[jaxjagman]

8 hours ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

Big 12 is better than both at basketball, that’s what we’re talking about right? Re Tennessee vs Kentucky

As far as pigskin it seems crazy that Indiana is just doing what most sec schools have been doing for a generation, but now that it’s legal and being done better by a non traditional power it’s suddenly not ok. Sec schools and the top 3 or 4 big ten schools are the reason we are in the mess we’re in. The ncaa is inept, yes, but this isn’t their doing. In football the sec largely hides from good outside competition, they don’t beat up on themselves as much as they sequester themselves and hope to skate by on name recognition, just like the top end of the big 10. It’s pathetic to any fan of the sport that doesn’t immediately align with one of those ~20 schools.


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Right,so use to calling it the BIG 10 its the Big 12

[Carvers Gap]

So far at 12z...and this looks like an over-running event to me at least preliminarily.  We have seen these events during recent La Nina winters, but mainly to my west.  This is more of a QBO La Nina winter look.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

Ensemble members....The 12z GEFS is almost universally KY.  The 12z AIFS EPS is very much the state of TN.  After yesterday's basketball game, that makes me a little nervous.

[Carvers Gap]

12z AIFS EPS...some BIG dogs.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Well, the 12z Euro is gonna have a say it appears!!!!

[nrgjeff]

Well the 12Z EC drops a Quebec ice storm on Mississippi and Alabama next weekend. We have a week for it to change. Otherwise MS / AL grid is gonna look as bad as Ukraine's. Guess we'll take natural causes over a terrorist Holodomor, but still..

[Carvers Gap]

At 162, the 12z Euro has gone pretty much bonkers.

[Carvers Gap]

Bout time for the hot donuts sign...here we go.

[Carvers Gap]

Right around 240, the 12z Euro hits us again.