January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Weatheriscool]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Second storm is La boomba.

That is state wide west to east north to south

[John1122]

AMZ working on 16 inches that run.

[John1122]

That would be a turn out the lights special south of 40, since it's around 32/33 degrees.

[Carvers Gap]

West Virginia is up to 47” at 232.  @tnweathernuthas 26” of snow to this point.

[tnweathernut]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

West Virginia is up to 107” at 232.  @tnweathernuthas 26” of snow to this point.

I’ll allow it……. I think I’m equally impressed that those two storms hit the entire state with 9”+, except for the far NW corner

[tnweathernut]

I really think it will be interesting to see if modeling is onto something with the vigor of storm 1.  That’s been off and on various models the last couple of days.

[*Flash*]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

I’ll allow it……. I think I’m equally impressed that those two storms hit the entire state with 9”+, except for the far NW corner

i agree. Gotta like the fact we have two shots at a decent dog. Hopefully, the entire viewing area can get at least to seasonal climo snow totals before February. Might be too much to ask...but suddenly the ceiling is there.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z Euro AIFS has this scenario but just not on the GFS juice.  Honestly, this run of the GFS looks like someone poured a little hot sauce in the programming at 12z.  Threat looks legit, but spacing is key.  The NE is probably gonna get hammered.  Still details to work out at our latitude but a fun run!

The GEM is less enthused.  Let’s see if the Euro has this.

[TellicoWx]

56 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS looks like an inland runner or lee side low which develops and causes lift over E TN 10-12” over TRI and much more in the mountains. 

Lee side low precursor is definitely there on modeling...whether it happens or not won't come into focus until the short range has a grasp imo. Would be a scenario where totals increase from west to east across the greater eastern valley. 

[Knoxtron]

 

 

 

 

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

AMZ working on 16 inches that run.

Lock it in!  That’s definitely a frame worthy model run

[tnweathernut]

I can hardly wait for all the Facebook weather experts to tell us about the feet of snow we will all be getting………. (Sarcasm alert)

[John1122]

Euro AI is just a printer repeat of it's prior runs. Too warm unfortunately west of the eastern Highland Rim/Murfreesboro area but snows over the eastern half.

[John1122]

I'm not sure if the AIGFS is rain or snow, I'd lean rain but 850s are below 32 and 925s are right at it, however surface temps are mid to upper 30s.

[Greyhound]

I can hardly wait for all the Facebook weather experts to tell us about the feet of snow we will all be getting………. (Sarcasm alert)

They are so unbearable!!!!


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

15 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

They are so unbearable!!!!


.

I hope the metal snowman is still up. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The Euro still has substantial differences from the GFS

 

I tried to get he loops as close as I could time stamp wise, but it still seems they are out of sync after a few frames.

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Precip panels have finally populated:

[*Flash*]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Precip panels have finally populated:

https://giphy.com/gifs/hd-quality-TJPQBOfPGpgmQ

[Matthew70]

Sadly the GFS has been wrong & I believe the Euro AI has been dead on at least 5 days in.

[John1122]

The Euro is extremely suppressed, which isn't uncommon for it at this range. 

[housemtnTN]

This is getting very exciting.

[Matthew70]

Board wide/state wide snow paste is all we need!!!!!! Half of what the gfs showed with those cold temps. Yep I approve.  Make it happen!  Forgive me gfs for all those bad things I said about you in the past. 

[Carvers Gap]

Some fun ensemble members from the AIFS EPS and GEFS.  BTW, the GEFS has been spitting out big dogs for about 3 runs - holy moly.

 

[TellicoWx]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Some fun ensemble members from the AIFS EPS and GEFS.  BTW, the GEFS has been spitting out big dogs for about 3 runs - holy moly.

 

Definitely first test for our area with the AIFS OP...interesting it has been slowly increasing the totals across the eastern valley for the last several runs. 

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Definitely first test for our area with the AIFS OP...interesting it has been slowly increasing the totals across the eastern valley for the last several runs. 

Yeah, the GFS and AIFS Euro are two models I would say that I don't trust that much!  The ensembles have been decent so fare this winter though.  I just thought they were some fun slow maps, but do show a storm track that I thought was interesting.  Need the Euro on board at some point, but it may be slow to get this as it seems it was slow to get on board w/ something(can't remember) earlier this winter or late last fall.

[Carvers Gap]

[Carvers Gap]

....and put the two together.

[jaxjagman]

I'll take a shot of the GFS

[Carvers Gap]

I am also now watching Jan 20th as a window a bit more closely.  Looks legit.