Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just made it 

[Nibor]

20 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Reminds me someone needs to do a welfare check on forky.  Maybe MJO can head over in his squad car and knock make sure he’s alright.  

Forky was cryptically bullish on the pattern when he chimed in a few days ago. Rjay outed him in the banter thread from the last snowfall.

[MJO812]

Nam

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nam

still going here no?

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

still going here no?

Its final

Nam has a weird orientation. Looks like a lake effect streamer .

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its final

Nam has a weird orientation. Looks like a lake effect streamer .

Would be a bizarre outcome if it verified 

[Krs4Lfe]

Seems to be a very tenuous situation setting up. This storm is relatively weak and will run into strong high pressure. Due to the storms weakness, it can't penetrate the high pressure and becomes a bit shredded before moving into New England. However, there’s enough cold air in place for at least a few inches of snow. This would be more significant if it was moving slowly but there’s no blocking in North Atlantic so this thing is hauling pretty quickly and isn’t really strong enough for huge rates anyway. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

i'd take the 2-5 and run

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Seems to be a very tenuous situation setting up. This storm is relatively weak and will run into strong high pressure. Due to the storms weakness, it can't penetrate the high pressure and becomes a bit shredded before moving into New England. However, there’s enough cold air in place for at least a few inches of snow. This would be more significant if it was moving slowly but there’s no blocking in North Atlantic so this thing is hauling pretty quickly and isn’t really strong enough for huge rates anyway. 

There will be high ratios with this storm whoever is under the heavy banding. 

[SnoSki14]

One thing to note is that surface temps are really cold to start. Could be some high ratio snows and better than 10:1

[MJO812]

Nice shift

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice shift

Guardedly optimistic at this point. These shift north at the end so many times though. Hopefully the blocking does the trick. 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice shift

Yeah the 12z was pretty far north with mainly rain for most of. That’s a very sharp cutoff though south of NYC. Most models were at least a few degrees too cold with today’s event. I wonder how that affects the next one 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah the 12z was pretty far north with mainly rain for most of. That’s a very sharp cutoff though south of NYC. Most models were at least a few degrees too cold with today’s event. I wonder how that affects the next one 

Should be a fresh cold airmass

[Stormlover74]

Rgem came north. Lots of mixing. LI stays all snow

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem came north. Lots of mixing. LI stays all snow

NYC goes to sleet at the end after a thump .

[WestBabylonWeather]

Alright, no more pivoting please 

[jm1220]

25 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah the 12z was pretty far north with mainly rain for most of. That’s a very sharp cutoff though south of NYC. Most models were at least a few degrees too cold with today’s event. I wonder how that affects the next one 

It's really about the mid levels and 700/850 low tracks. Right now the blocking is stout enough that those don't screw us over but I wouldn't say we're out of the woods (around NYC). Look at the soundings. There will definitely be a sleetfest zone in this kind of storm because of those mid level lows going north of them and bringing in the warm air at 750/800mb. Right now that's most of PA down to Philly but have to watch any last minute trend. 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's really about the mid levels and 700/850 low tracks. Right now the blocking is stout enough that those don't screw us over but I wouldn't say we're out of the woods (around NYC). Look at the soundings. There will definitely be a sleetfest zone in this kind of storm because of those mid level lows going north of them and bringing in the warm air at 750/800mb. Right now that's most of PA down to Philly but have to watch any last minute trend. 

This reminds me of a winter storm we had last February. All of NYC and LI was under winter storm watch for 4-6” of snow, sleet, and ZR. We were downgraded to winter weather advisory, because only 2-4” fell in the boroughs because of a lot of sleet. Most of Long Island did better, and the either west you went, the more mixing you ran into. Was a solid ice storm for Philly up towards Newark. Cold temps ahead of that storm too, but lots of mid level warmth 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

This reminds me of a winter storm we had last February. All of NYC and LI was under winter storm watch for 4-6” of snow, sleet, and ZR. We were downgraded to winter weather advisory, because only 2-4” fell in the boroughs because of a lot of sleet. Most of Long Island did better, and the either west you went, the more mixing you ran into. Was a solid ice storm for Philly up towards Newark. Cold temps ahead of that storm too, but lots of mid level warmth 

That worked out better than I thought it would because the heavy precip came early before the mid level warmth could ruin it-in these SWFE type setups we need the heavy initial thump. Even in Long Beach there was 4-5" because the snow came in like a wall and piled up. The ones where it gets delayed/comes in shredded you know will disappoint.

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That worked out better than I thought it would because the heavy precip came early before the mid level warmth could ruin it-in these SWFE type setups we need the heavy initial thump. Even in Long Beach there was 4-5" because the snow came in like a wall and piled up. The ones where it gets delayed/comes in shredded you know will disappoint.

Yeah there were 2 events in February 2019 where the precipitation waw delayed by hours and all we ended up with was like 2” of snow/sleet from each one as opposed to the 3-5” expected . By the time the snow came, it shortly went over to sleet. This is increasingly reminding me of those because I’m sure the north trend isn’t done either 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS is 4-7 inches

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is 4-7 inches

More

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah there were 2 events in February 2019 where the precipitation waw delayed by hours and all we ended up with was like 2” of snow/sleet from each one as opposed to the 3-5” expected . By the time the snow came, it shortly went over to sleet. This is increasingly reminding me of those because I’m sure the north trend isn’t done either 

We'll see. That was a good GFS run. If this blocking really happens this can work out and we're getting into reality range. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is 4-7 inches

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

i guess that would be the ceiling @Stormlover74great to see. perfect track

[snywx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

Sign me up

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We'll see. That was a good GFS run. If this blocking really happens this can work out and we're getting into reality range. 

It has been consistent. Could still be wrong but other models seem to be trending colder

[MJO812]

Cmc 

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc 

looks 4-8