Possible Light Snowfall (1" - 4") on Tuesday Dec 23

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Then there's the gfs

when you see something like this - it shows the models still haven't figured out how to handle this situation along with the NAM showing little or nothing . Need to get closer to get a better idea............

[donsutherland1]

The latest from WPC:

[MJO812]

Every model coming in further south at 12z

[MJO812]

Gfs

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

this would be considered a white Christmas

[Northof78]

Nice trends over past day or so, of south/colder, TTN N looks good for 1-3"

[sussexcountyobs]

http://youtube.com/post/UgkxqJNruw0VV6CFUpiaAINruvu2TBBBpsrK?si=Uf-dMFelpUCGyPJG

[Picard]

If it turns out like the last one, some of us up here would surprise with 6".
Can it happen twice in a row?

[sussexcountyobs]

If anyone is interested? Bobby Martrich has Steve D. as special guest on his Sunday Weather Weeklies video on you tube.

[snowman19]

Nice trends over past day or so, of south/colder, TTN N looks good for 1-3"

The National Weather Service disagrees with you:

Anticipated snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

New disco:


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Light snow likely late Monday night transitions to a mixture of
rain and snow near the coast Tuesday morning and mostly light snow
inland.

* Accumulations are expected to be light and under an inch
(potentially just a coating) for NYC metro, Long Island, and
coastal southeast CT with 1-2 inches possible for interior Lower
Hudson Valley, interior southwest CT, and interior NE NJ.

* Slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday.

High pressure moves over the region on Monday with dry conditions
prevailing.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The National Weather Service disagrees with you:

Anticipated snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

New disco:


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Light snow likely late Monday night transitions to a mixture of
rain and snow near the coast Tuesday morning and mostly light snow
inland.

* Accumulations are expected to be light and under an inch
(potentially just a coating) for NYC metro, Long Island, and
coastal southeast CT with 1-2 inches possible for interior Lower
Hudson Valley, interior southwest CT, and interior NE NJ.

* Slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday.

High pressure moves over the region on Monday with dry conditions
prevailing.

I'm thinking up to a coating in the City (<1") and maybe 1"-2" well north and west. There may be more downside risks than upside ones for the City e.g., precipitation rate might be too light. White Plains might be around an inch or so. 

[the_other_guy]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm thinking up to a coating in the City (<1") and maybe 1"-2" well north and west. There may be more downside risks than upside ones for the City e.g., precipitation rate might be too light. White Plains might be around an inch or so. 

This^

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm thinking up to a coating in the City (<1") and maybe 1"-2" well north and west. There may be more downside risks than upside ones for the City e.g., precipitation rate might be too light. White Plains might be around an inch or so. 

I like a dusting to an inch for the city with with slightly more north and west. It will be cold enough to snow but it will only stick in the city on colder surfaces. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

last storm CP NYC got 2.9 and I am southwest of them in Extreme northern  Middlesex County NJ and I got somewhere between 5 and 6 inches  -- to be safe I am staying with 1 -4 for  my area as of now...........changes still possible before showtime.......

this is a coating to 2 inches tops in my opinion everywhere unless you go to northwest Ct and Southwest Mass where they can get up to 5 inches 

[WeatherGeek2025]

46 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

glad you are so confident - thats why I said said changes still possible- could end up being nothing too still have over 40 hours to go......

it's just my opinion it doesn't mean it's right but from personal experience this is a nuisance snow that basically is gone the next day

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's just my opinion it doesn't mean it's right but from personal experience this is a nuisance snow that basically is gone the next day

Exactly

[MJO812]

Nam

[sussexcountyobs]

White Christmas incoming.

[MJO812]

Steve D

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D

and if the precip arrives a couple hours earlier that # 1 area will be further south and east and if it is delayed a few hours arriving that # 3 area will expand further north that why I am sticking with 1 -4 for my area as of now - this is a perfect example of threading the needle..........should be interesting how most school districts handle this because many have early dismissal on Tuesday for the holidays - can't have a delayed opening on those days because it won't count as a 4 hour day........

[MJO812]

Icon

[snowman19]

The 3K (hi res) NAM looks nothing like the regular NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025122118&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=nam4km

New NWS Upton update:

Snow map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

Disco:

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Increasing likelihood of a light snowfall late Monday night
into Tuesday as a warm front lifts through the region. The
snow changes to rain along the coast Tuesday morning, and
potentially for most inland areas by early afternoon.

* Total accumulations of up to an inch for the NYC metro, Long
Island, and coastal CT, and 1 to 2 inches for interior areas.

* Travel impacts to the Tuesday AM commute likely, with icy
conditions possible on colder, untreated surfaces.

Cold high pressure overhead on Monday, with dry conditions
prevailing through the day. Mid level shortwave traverses east,
sending a warm front toward the region into Monday night into
Tuesday. Primary low remains well to the north before attempting
to redevelop offshore along the front later Tuesday as the
system exits.

Clouds increase Monday evening as the warm front approaches,
and still on track for a light snowfall late Monday night into
Tuesday morning as the front lifts through the region. A snow
band develops and moves in from the west generally after
midnight, if not closer to daybreak, based on latest hi-res
guidance. The precip will have to overcome dry air initially in
the low levels, with surface dew pts likely in the teens to
start. Thermal profile in general looks marginal along the
coast, where temperatures in the mid 30s should wet bulb down to
around freezing or so. Increasing SW flow at the surface will
begin warming the BL and force a transition to rain/snow by mid
morning along the coast, before gradually becoming light rain
by late morning. This transition should work its way inland
through southern CT, but may struggle to fully changeover into
the Lower Hudson Valley before precipitation shuts off here.
Additional precip may develop into early afternoon, especially
eastern and coastal areas, as low pressure attempts to develop
and deepen offshore as the system pulls away, but any light rain
that remains tapers by the early evening.

QPF overall will be light, largely near or under a quarter inch,
which will limit any potential snowfall. Forecast amounts have
not changed significantly from the previous forecast, with up to
an inch along the coast, and 1 to 2 inches moving inland north
of interstates 80 and 95, with highest amounts in the elevated
areas of the interior LoHud Valley, interior SW Connecticut,
and NE NJ. Certainly plausible many coastal locales see little
if any accumulation, or just a light coating. Will depend how
much the dry air limits initial precip with the WAA band. Given
the timing, travel impacts for Tuesday`s morning commute appear
likely, particularly on any colder, untreated surfaces where
snow occurs. Temperatures climb above freezing by afternoon as
precip begins to taper, even inland.

High pressure begins building towards the area from the Upper Great
Lakes Tuesday night as the exiting low deepens as it tracks further
offshore. The tightening gradient should increase the NW flow in
response, and keep most areas in the 30s overnight into Wed AM.

[NEG NAO]

remember - this is forecasted to be a wet snow similar to the beginning of the last event and even a couple of inches will stick to everything = power lines - trees - etc etc so it will look more more threatening  then it might end up to be

[sussexcountyobs]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D

Yup. I posted that hours ago. This may be a very nice little snow event.

[Northof78]

The snow will not be wet, temps in mid to upper 20s for most of accumulating snow time

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

The snow will not be wet, temps in mid to upper 20s for most of accumulating snow time

even in NYC immediate metro ? whats it going to be well inland ?

 

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

remember - this is forecasted to be a wet snow similar to the beginning of the last event and even a couple of inches will stick to everything = power lines - trees - etc etc so it will look more more threatening  then it might end up to be

Temps will be similiar as the last event for NYC with less precip.

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

even in NYC immediate metro ? whats it going to be well inland ?

 

 

No

Temps in NYC will be in the low 30s.

[MJO812]

Gfs

[sussexcountyobs]

Will Central Park measure .1" of snow? They'll probably clock in with .08".

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Will Central Park measure .1" of snow? They'll probably clock in with .08".

doesn't anyone go where they measure when the snow is falling and try to determine whats causing the constant low totals ?