Snowstorm potential 12/14/2025

[WeatherGeek2025]

Hello everybody,

 

I think it's time to think positive and see where this snow potential for this coming Sunday takes us.

It has been a miss, flurries, to a decent size potential. Potentially a light to moderate event. 

Discuss

[NEG NAO]

Good luck with your first winter storm thread 

[MJO812]

Cmc

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc

I think some areas will receive a few inches while others receive only a coating and this will turn into a nowcasting event and it's impossible to predict which area of the region will receive what amounts until the storm is approaching the region and in progress probably

[Franklin0529]

Going down to Atlantic City from Friday -monday. Maybe I'll see couple inches down there 

[jm1220]

Given how chaotic/fast the pattern is we won’t know more until tomorrow evening probably. Hopefully we can thread the needle and have a decent enough event but it will be a small window with a vigorous enough shortwave taking a good track. Lots of ways it can go wrong. 

[Physicsteve]

Seems like Friday is petering out and headed south but hopefully that translates to a better outcome on Sunday. I’ll invoke 2 rules from the handbook and sacrifice Friday for Sunday while also needing the current clipper to exit so we get a better handle on the weekend. 

[SnowGoose69]

Main reason I want this to happen is it increases the odds the Giants lose a game that is very winnable....

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

Seems like Friday is petering out and headed south but hopefully that translates to a better outcome on Sunday. I’ll invoke 2 rules from the handbook and sacrifice Friday for Sunday while also needing the current clipper to exit so we get a better handle on the weekend. 

Yes I believe it is having some impact, not sure its a ton of the reason but that event being more washed just based on usual tendencies when two waves are in fairly close proximity helps

[WeatherGeek2025]

clown map from the canadian for Sunday

[SnowGoose69]

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

[yoda]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

Pivotalweather.com has it every 6 hours btw... as in 96/102/108.

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

ukmet is a strung out southern miss! never really gets going after digging 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

ukmet is a strung out southern miss! never really gets going after digging 

Closer than 0z

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

In terms of surface weather it's mostly a miss with snow showers and C-1" with more in SNJ. But I agree aloft it's the closest I've seen in a few days to a bigger solution with the PV dropping into the trof and amplifying it almost to a neutral tilt.

[SnowGoose69]

One thing I will say before the Euro comes out is it has been insanely good the last 3-4 weeks on these MW/Lakes storms.  It obviously has been pretty mid on the E Coast.  Thats been a tendency now for a few years.  For awhile it sucked over amping everything in the 90-120 period.  Since the most recent upgrade that bias is gone and its tended more to underamp in the 48-96 period or just do something/ANYTHING that is different from all other models.  The good news so far is everything moved towards it the last 2 cycles and this system is a different setup than the one it botched last week so perhaps its onto the idea this time

[MJO812]

AI Euro 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Euro

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I think the banner of snowstorm potential is a little over the top. I'm rooting for it of course, but I wouldn't call a 2 to 4 inch possibility, and that's if everything works out, snowstorm potential. Maybe something like light to moderate event possibility would be a better banner.