Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Jns2183]

The Regime Transition Probability Map is a visualization of a Markov Chain transition matrix, designed to quantify the likelihood of shifts between specific atmospheric states. It represents a century of regional snowfall data processed through a K-Means clustering algorithm.
Statistical Mechanics of the Map
* Axes: The vertical axis (Current Cluster) defines the point of origin, representing the weather regime of the most recent event. The horizontal axis (Next Cluster) represents the predicted destination for the subsequent atmospheric event.
* Probability Density: The numerical values and corresponding blue shading represent the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of a transition occurring between any two clusters. A value closer to 1.0 (darker blue) indicates a high statistical probability, while a value closer to 0.0 (lighter blue) suggests a rare or unlikely transition.
Current Regime Analysis: Transition from Cluster 3
Following the high-intensity coastal event on February 23, the atmospheric state is currently positioned in Cluster 3 (Extreme Synoptic). Analyzing the Row 3 data provides the following probabilistic insights:
* Pattern Persistence (3 to 3): The probability located at the intersection of Row 3 and Column 3 quantifies the likelihood of the atmosphere remaining in a high-intensity coastal redevelopment cycle.
* Regime Decay (3 to 2): Historically, late-February Cluster 3 events exhibit a strong statistical trend toward Cluster 2 (Clipper / Fast-Moving). This represents a transition from high-payload moisture systems to lower-accumulation, high-ratio arctic systems.
* Inland Transition (3 to 1): The probability of shifting to Cluster 1 (Miller B / Overrunning) indicates the likelihood of the next system following an inland track rather than the coastal track observed yesterday.
Probabilistic Representation
The map demonstrates that weather patterns are not random but operate within a set of statistically favored transitions. For a Cluster 3 point of origin, the high concentration of probability in the Cluster 2 column suggests a regime shift toward diminished regional totals. This indicates that while extreme events like the one yesterday are significant, they are statistically followed by a period of lower intensity as the seasonal atmospheric steering flow begins its spring transition.


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[Jns2183]

I'm not saying you don't speak the truth, but I have an unscientific hunch we're in for an anomalous spring. 

The historical Max and anomaly is March 1960. Maybe the month I dream about experiencing the most.

In March 1960, the Northeast saw a relentless pattern that produced 7 distinct measurable snow events for the Harrisburg (MDT) area, totaling that record-setting cumulative amount.
It wasn't just one "Superstorm"; it was a "parade" of systems that kept the ground white for nearly the entire month. Here is how that active March unfolded for Harrisburg:
March 1960 Storm Timeline (Harrisburg/MDT)
| Date | Snowfall Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| March 3 | 10.5" | The primary "anchor" storm of the month. |
| March 10 | 1.8" | A cold-sector clipper system. |
| March 16 | 3.2" | Moderate overrunning event. |
| March 17 | 3.0" | St. Patrick's Day system. |
| March 22 | 2.0" | Late-season coastal influence. |
| Minor Events | 2.1" | Combined totals from minor dustings (March 4, 7, 8, 21, 24). |
| Total | 22.6" | (Catalog sum for distinct events) |


Prior to this month that winter had produced 27" of snow, similar to us now. But March was notice to all the new decade was a different beast

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[Blizzard of 93]

55 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The median snow for Harrisburg after a February storm like the one the other day this late in February here is the past outcomes

25th 0.48
Median 2.66"
75th 6.28"

So likely all we get rest of season is a 1"-3"/3"-6"

She's just about done.

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I think we have a long way to go until true Spring arrives this season. We have a few potential Winter events to track through next week. Then, we likely warm up for a week to 10 days. After that, the Teleconnections & MJO forecast indicate that mid March through at least early April could be a return to a colder pattern with the trough in the east.

I think we are tracking Winter storm chances through Easter week in early April this year. It fits the same pattern that we have had since around Thanksgiving. Any warm ups have been brief & i think that continues.

[Blizzard of 93]

13 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is very true. It's one thing to share thoughts with family and friends but when people's livelihoods are at stake it's an entirely different animal. 

So now, my forecast outlet is here. I'll be undercutting you a lot going forward, I'm quite sure of that.   

Lol, come on now, I went lower than many in the January storm forecast contest for MDT & won it with my 12.5 guess. 
You would have won the contest this time if we had done one this past weekend.

I look forward to the next chance!

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Euro brings a coating to many of us by tomorrow am with the overnight Clipper.

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

The historical Max and anomaly is March 1960. Maybe the month I dream about experiencing the most.

In March 1960, the Northeast saw a relentless pattern that produced 7 distinct measurable snow events for the Harrisburg (MDT) area, totaling that record-setting cumulative amount.
It wasn't just one "Superstorm"; it was a "parade" of systems that kept the ground white for nearly the entire month. Here is how that active March unfolded for Harrisburg:
March 1960 Storm Timeline (Harrisburg/MDT)
| Date | Snowfall Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| March 3 | 10.5" | The primary "anchor" storm of the month. |
| March 10 | 1.8" | A cold-sector clipper system. |
| March 16 | 3.2" | Moderate overrunning event. |
| March 17 | 3.0" | St. Patrick's Day system. |
| March 22 | 2.0" | Late-season coastal influence. |
| Minor Events | 2.1" | Combined totals from minor dustings (March 4, 7, 8, 21, 24). |
| Total | 22.6" | (Catalog sum for distinct events) |


Prior to this month that winter had produced 27" of snow, similar to us now. But March was notice to all the new decade was a different beast

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Awesome. Thank.you for looking that up. I'm not sure how deep you went, but it sounds like this spring falls pretty short on 1960 analogs. I'm hoping to get back to work in the next ten to fourteen days, so 1960 doesn't sound that attractive anyways. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I think we have a long way to go until true Spring arrives this season. We have a few potential Winter events to track through next week. Then, we likely warm up for a week to 10 days. After that, the Teleconnections & MJO forecast indicate that mid March through at least early April could be a return to a colder pattern with the trough in the east.

I think we are tracking Winter storm chances through Easter week in early April this year. It fits the same pattern that we have had since around Thanksgiving. Any warm ups have been brief & i think that continues.

I think the seesawing is goeing to be anomalously brutal this spring. I foresee a spring with a fair amount of chances, with coastals and cold air nearby. 

 I know that you would love to see the whole month of March covered with snow , and that's okay. I personally just need the storm. The snow can melt before I wake up from resting for all I care.

Because of my line of work and other passios I won't root for snow once the growing season has started.   That doesn't mean that I won't enjoy it it happens, but there's far too many negative consequences for me to get excited at that point.