Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Ruin]

12 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

HRRR still looks fine for Lancaster. I’ve never been a fan of it but I’m assuming it has utility. 

until it doesnt its one model that showed good things for many only for it to fall apart 

[WmsptWx]

Puking snow currently 

[MAG5035]

Revised map, I left some room for this to end up a bit better than where the trends are heading but I might not have backed off enough. Totals include what snow has already fallen.

 

Also here’s CTP’s revised snow map, very elevational now. 

[MAG5035]

Just now, WmsptWx said:

Puking snow currently 

I think your in a good spot to be a winner for that inverted trough band. 

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP just updated the Warning for most of us & downgraded amounts.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
133 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

PAZ056>059-063>066-231145-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260223T1800Z/
Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Pottsville, Newport, Lebanon, Harrisburg,
York, Hershey, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and Lancaster
133 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 3 and 8
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
  down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
  could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow this afternoon which
  will increase in intensity this evening and into the overnight
  hours. The heaviest snowfall is expected in eastern portions of
  Lancaster, Lebanon, and Schuylkill Counties.

 

[CarlislePaWx]

Shortly before 2:00pm here in Carlisle...the temperature is 36.1 degrees with a dew point of 35.  There is extremely light rain falling with a few wet flakes mixed in at times.  Earlier this morning I just about made it to 0.1" of snow on the very wet board.  Needless to say, that's been gone for a while.  About 45 minutes ago I went ahead and measured the melted snow / rainfall and I recorded 0.14" of qpf.  I mentioned last night about having visions of the Jan 2016 deathband that hung out over me for several hours and easily added 5" to my storm total.  Well, the latest maps seem to indicate that the inverted trough is going to either move far enough east, or simply be wider because the snowfall map has me in the 8" accumulation.  It looks like if the band moved close enough to reach the river, then I'd be inside the heaviest central part of the band.  I'm not holding my breath on this but it now does look like a real possibility. 

[canderson]

They need to drop the warning for Harrisburg. Here is my forecast. 

 

This Afternoon

Rain and snow. High near 37. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Tonight

Snow, possibly mixed with rain, becoming all snow after 7pm. Low around 32. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. 

 

 

[HBGCPA10]

Where are all the people yesterday saying the roads were going to cave during the day in Harrisburg. Going to be lucky if the atmosphere caves to snow before dark. Currently 40 in West Hanover Township (17112)

[Mount Joy Snowman]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

They need to drop the warning for Harrisburg. Here is my forecast. 

 

This Afternoon

Rain and snow. High near 37. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Tonight

Snow, possibly mixed with rain, becoming all snow after 7pm. Low around 32. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. 

 

 

Man, that was actually sad to read haha.

[canderson]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Man, that was actually sad to read haha.

We won’t get much snow but by god - we will verify the wind!

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP updated expected snow 

[Blizzard of 93]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP just updated the Warning for most of us & downgraded amounts.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
133 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

PAZ056>059-063>066-231145-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260223T1800Z/
Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Pottsville, Newport, Lebanon, Harrisburg,
York, Hershey, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and Lancaster
133 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 3 and 8
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
  down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
  could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow this afternoon which
  will increase in intensity this evening and into the overnight
  hours. The heaviest snowfall is expected in eastern portions of
  Lancaster, Lebanon, and Schuylkill Counties.

 

Again, long way to go with this one…

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Just now, canderson said:

We won’t get much snow but by god - we will verify the wind!

All you can do is laugh!  What's becoming pretty clear is that a subsidence screw zone is likely to setup somewhere between say @Itstrainingtime and @CarlislePaWx.  Question is exactly where but you reside right in the middle of that swath soooooo not great haha. 

[str8liner]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP updated expected snow 

See that 5 in beautiful Bedford Co? 

It better get really busy to verify that....Its melting as fast and the flurries hit the ground so maybe we already got 4 lmao. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP updated expected snow 

I don't think that's correct.  See below.  

[Blizzard of 93]

Let the chips fall where they may…

My trusty handbook says it’s now casting time!

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I don't think that's correct.  See below.  

Go look again…

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Go look again…

Look at my full screen shot time…2:20 pm

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Go look again…

I just did.  It can be confusing because they stupidly have two different maps on different tabs but the one I posted is the updated one.  It's timestamped later.  They have cut back on totals, as expected.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I just did.  It can be confusing because they stupidly have two different maps on different tabs but the one I posted is the updated one.  It's timestamped later.  They have cut back on totals, as expected.

There ever changing computer generated maps are besides the point. Their actual written Warning says 3 to 8 for all of southern PA in CTP territory.

[Storm Clouds]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Let the chips fall where they may…

My trusty handbook says it’s now casting time!

I appreciate how optimistic you always are, but can’t hide the facts…unfortunately this has been trending the wrong way for us since yesterday. 

[Ruin]

24 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Revised map, I left some room for this to end up a bit better than where the trends are heading but I might not have backed off enough. Totals include what snow has already fallen.

 

Also here’s CTP’s revised snow map, very elevational now. 

this is just sad as fuck and yet nothing will be done with models we will be forced to look at shitty models all the time 

[Storm Clouds]

Boxing Day 2010 all over again lol…

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Storm Clouds said:

I appreciate how optimistic you always are, but can’t hide the facts…unfortunately this has been trending the wrong way for us since yesterday. 

Plenty of time to still score something with this event. We were never really in the bullseye, but let’s let it play out.

[canderson]

Edit i‘m an idiot and don’t know what the day is 

[Ruin]

1 minute ago, Storm Clouds said:

Boxing Day 2010 all over again lol…

yeah I forget who mentioned it but yep isnt that the big storm they called for and we just go hours of the radar showing snow and it didnt do shit?

[Storm Clouds]

Just now, Ruin said:

yeah I forget who mentioned it but yep isnt that the big storm they called for and we just go hours of the radar showing snow and it didnt do shit?

Yes while Philadelphia and east got like one to two feet of snow…we are reliving that nightmare. 

[Ruin]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Plenty of time to still score something with this event. We were never really in the bullseye, but let’s let it play out.

see I dont like when people do this revision saying we were never really in it at all not our storm. they were forecasting anywhere from 6-12 inches yea we were not in the heaviest but god damn we could of had as much as the last storm. but now the models say f you I lied to you  

[Ruin]

1 minute ago, Storm Clouds said:

Yes while Philadelphia and east got like one to two feet of snow…we are reliving that nightmare. 

I was so pissed that day im like how can you be that wrong with a storm. local mets were like we dodged a bullet here.

[Voyager]

2 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

Yes while Philadelphia and east got like one to two feet of snow…we are reliving that nightmare. 

It's deja vu all over again. I remember that horrific nightmare, and now, here we go again.