Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

11 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

My understanding has been that the p v was to split and send down at least two cold lobes into  central then the eastern US late this month, but the MJO would be somewhat muting, and delaying its effects here on the east coast. Was it a pile of rubbish i've been reading, or still being worked out? 

yes SSW was to be peturbed, and if so, would not show up at lower levels (lag time).  MJO wasnt horribile looking but NAO was going notably + and trough west often means ridge east.  Hoping things sort out a bit better moving forward.  

this weekend looks rather nice.  

[Blizzard of 93]

6z AI EPS looks good for Sunday into Monday & the 6z Regular EPS at the end of its 6 day run improved as well 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 34. Love hearing that the overnight runs moved in a positive direction. Seems like we’ll have a real storm to track. I mean, we’re basically only five days out already. Big runs the next 48 hours. 

[canderson]

Would be really nice to get one more sizable storm. 

[ChescoWx]

Fog should burn off later this morning, and we turn much milder with highs well into the 40's our normal high is still in the low 40's. After today there is at least a chance of rain each day with maybe some snow mixing in on Thursday night. Our heaviest rain looks to be on Friday, and we can really use the rain. There will no doubt be rumors of a snowstorm starting next Sunday....but the good news is we don't shovel snow rumors!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Today marks exactly one month that I've maintained a snowpack.  Love it.  Also, 12z off to a great start as ICON holds for Sunday storm.

[Itstrainingtime]

39 minutes ago, canderson said:

Would be really nice to get one more sizable storm. 

One more storm and I'll give this winter an A. As is, it's a B. Lots of cold but significantly below normal snowfall.

[Superstorm]

ICON Money Shot

 

 

[MickeyTim6533]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

ICON Money Shot

 

 

right off the coast of omcd? pretty much benchmark correct?

[GrandmasterB]

Early worry (of which I’ll have many!) is that a miller B type evolution will trend towards a later transfer and a northeast bullseye solution over time. Of course, it’s just one worry and it’s early yet. 

[GrandmasterB]

2 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

right off the coast of omcd? pretty much benchmark correct?

That would be great for us verbatim. Significant CCB, comma-head action. 

[Superstorm]

Early worry (of which I’ll have many!) is that a miller B type evolution will trend towards a later transfer and a northeast bullseye solution over time. Of course, it’s just one worry and it’s early yet. 

Agreed. Late transfer would screw the pooch on this event.


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[canderson]

36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One more storm and I'll give this winter an A. As is, it's a B. Lots of cold but significantly below normal snowfall.

I rate it slightly higher personally but that’s because I value the iced-over river duration so much. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

GFS with a nice early transfer then tries to climb the coast.  Ya love to see it.

[Superstorm]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GFS with a nice early transfer then tries to climb the coast.  Ya love to see it.

That's what you want to see.

[Superstorm]

CMC is a bomb

 

[Superstorm]

UK a beat down.

 

[AccuChris]

UK a beat down.
 

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

This is getting real fellas.  I don't know if I can handle the week ahead ha.

[Itstrainingtime]

Our "friend" weighs in...I guess he's saying there's a chance, which is something:

All eyes are on the Sunday/Monday #winterstorm threat, but models are all over the place with respect to timing, track and intensity of the system. Essentially all scenarios.. from a major storm to a a "mix event" to plain rain to no storm.. are currently on the table. Unlike this past weekend, this system certainly has much bigger potential and should not be written off. However, you cannot shovel potential, and no specific details should be given until Thurs/Fri at the earliest. Given the chaos, I'll be writing my SWD tomorrow.

[Superstorm]

Our "friend" weighs in...I guess he's saying there's a chance, which is something:
All eyes are on the Sunday/Monday #winterstorm threat, but models are all over the place with respect to timing, track and intensity of the system. Essentially all scenarios.. from a major storm to a a "mix event" to plain rain to no storm.. are currently on the table. Unlike this past weekend, this system certainly has much bigger potential and should not be written off. However, you cannot shovel potential, and no specific details should be given until Thurs/Fri at the earliest. Given the chaos, I'll be writing my SWD tomorrow.

That’s good enough for me from him.


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[WmsptWx]

34 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

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Hey, new guy. Come give me a hand. This salami is killing my back. 

[AccuChris]

Hey, new guy. Come give me a hand. This salami is killing my back. 

Best underrated movie ever….oh look, a deli meat!


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[AccuChris]

The 12z Para CMC is also onboard now


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[AccuChris]

12z Euro Op says “nah”. Until this consistently joins the party I proceed with caution


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[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, AccuChris said:

12z Euro Op says “nah”. Until this consistently joins the party I proceed with caution


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That was a little discouraging. 

[AccuChris]

That was a little discouraging. 

The 12z Euro AI was better than the Op but was not as generous as its 6z run. Patience for now


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

To me, the Euro got a good bit closer compared to where it's been.  I think it's finally starting to see it and will come around in days ahead.

[canderson]

Today has killed off all snow in my front yard and side garden. Even shoveled piles. 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

right off the coast of omcd? pretty much benchmark correct?

benchmark is 40/70 lat/lon.  this is notably W by about 200 miles

 

3 hours ago, GrandmasterB said:

Early worry (of which I’ll have many!) is that a miller B type evolution will trend towards a later transfer and a northeast bullseye solution over time. Of course, it’s just one worry and it’s early yet. 

thats a legit worry for you and I