Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Yardstickgozinya]

7 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Sigh still bydont buy this warm pusg of air

 

[GrandmasterB]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Euro pushes sleet line well up into York/Lanc by 7pm but only after most the precip has fallen.  10:1 below....

If you toggle 0Z and 12Z it's definitely a small improvement at 12Z for us southerners.  Central is a solid hold, maybe a hair drier but really just noise.  This 12Z run falls in with other guidance either holding that sleet line off or giving us an extra 30 miles or so of breathing room.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I noticed the conversations yesterday on the thunder snow in the south. I've never seen videos from the guy above, but he seems pretty legit. He also covered the thunder snow extensively, if anybody wants to watch the video I posted above. Although it's a few model runs old, there's still some good info in there. 

[WmsptWx]

26 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Sigh still bydont buy this warm pusg of air

At some point, you have to.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

For those southern tier folks who are interested, I compiled a sleet summary of the 12z short-range models:

NAM - Sleet encroaching by early afternoon and fully through southern tier counties by 7pm but gets beaten back a bit, a true battle zone.  6-15" range of totals across Lanc.

NAM 3K - Ends run at 7pm Sun but has sleet well into York/Lanc the entire afternoon.  The worst depiction of the lot for us.

RDPS - Sleet starts entering Y/L by 1pm and completely overtakes by 7pm but still throws down Kuch of 9-13".

FV3 - Run ends at 7pm with sleet line still south of PA border and already 12-15" on the ground.

ARW - Run ends at 7am Sun but looked mostly good, with sleet line running through central VA.

NSL - Run ends at 7am Sun but looked mostly good, with sleet line running through northern VA.

HRRR - Run ends at 7am Sun but looked mostly good, with sleet line running through central VA. Anxiously awaiting 18z run.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

For those southern tier folks who are interested, I compiled a sleet summary of the 12z short-range models:

NAM - Sleet encroaching by early afternoon and fully through southern tier counties by 7pm but gets beaten back a bit, a true battle zone.  6-15" range of total across Lanc.

NAM 3K - Ends run at 7pm Sun but has sleet well into York/Lanc the entire afternoon.  The worst depiction of the lot for us.

RDPS - Sleet starts entering Y/L by 1pm and completely overtakes by 7pm but still throws down Kuch of 9-13".

FV3 - Run ends at 7pm with sleet line still south of PA border and already 12-15" on the ground.

ARW - Run ends at 7am Sun but looked mostly good, with sleet line running through central VA.

NSL - Run ends at 7am Sun but looked mostly good, with sleet line running through northern VA.

HRRR - Run ends at 7am Sun but looked mostly good, with sleet line running through central VA. Anxiously awaiting 18z run.

Almost forgot:  RRFS - Sleet barely enters Y/L late afternoon but is beaten back, 12-15" totals.

Tonight and tomorrow's runs will be very telling with regard to any warm air intrusion between 850 and 700mb, but I am liking the general trends and leaning towards the colder solutions winning out.

[Yardstickgozinya]

58 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Look at the satellite water vapor images in western Canada. That high is hauling ass down and that might be why

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It's funny.I was thinking about what old snownuts  was saying about the 50/50 low when looking over the geo satellite . It reminds me of an old school WWF Match . In  one corner, we have Baja Bowling ball and his sidekick Gorilla Juice  on the other side we have Mr. Arctic,but unfortunately his sidekick 50/50 is mia  out banging  Mr Arctic's wife. 

[AccuChris]

Lastest from Eric Horst


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[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Almost forgot:  RRFS - Sleet barely enters Y/L late afternoon but is beaten back, 12-15" totals.

Tonight and tomorrow's runs will be very telling with regard to any warm air intrusion between 850 and 700mb, but I am liking the general trends and leaning towards the colder solutions winning out.

Been in the back of my mind as well.  May have slight warming as CTP introduced ZR into grid forcast.  Me no likely. 

Hoping mesos suppress that fear for HH

[str8liner]

I hope we avoid the sleet in Bedford CO. I get worried when the talk of mixing south of the Turnpike starts. I am only 4 miles north of it. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

I believe the one and only model we haven't mentioned is the good 'ol RAP haha.  Here is the 15z at the end of its run at 1pm on Sunday with the cold seemingly winning out and 6-8" already on the ground.  

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

For personal travel reasons, I am rooting against next weekend’s blizzard lol 

 

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

me too bro. Taking my 2 favorite chicks (both Hockey nuts) to Happy Valley Friday night for Hockey game. 

Sorry friends - after missing this weekend I'm pulling hard for a blizzard next weekend.

[canderson]

@MAG5035 - you going to do a map? It’s been a long while! 

[Jns2183]

There's video going around from that lake effect mega snow band in New York showing what 7" per hour rates are like. Basically like being inside a cloud.

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[paweather]

Hope the Euro comes around too a long event into Monday morning. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

There's video going around from that lake effect mega snow band in New York showing what 7" per hour rates are like. Basically like being inside a cloud.

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My buddy just called me from Barnes Corners (tuggers) and said he turned around in field.  Too deep, and cant see in whiteout conditions.  Headed back to Brantingham.  Said he got 2' last night and 8'' so far today.

[Jns2183]

My buddy just called me from Barnes Corners (tuggers) and said he turned around in field.  Too deep, and cant see in whiteout conditions.  Headed back to Brantingham.  Said he got 2' last night and 8'' so far today.

There's some approaching 3feet today

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[canderson]

9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

There's video going around from that lake effect mega snow band in New York showing what 7" per hour rates are like. Basically like being inside a cloud.

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Link please

[Mount Joy Snowman]

18z HRRR at the end of its run at 1pm on Sunday, with roughly 7-9" on the ground.

[AccuChris]

Long range HRRR looks great for 18z Sunday



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[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

18z HRRR at the end of its run at 1pm on Sunday, with roughly 7-9" on the ground.

Acceptable.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Long range HRRR looks great for 18z Sunday



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Plenty more to come after that!

[Itstrainingtime]

That was a great HRRR run for the southern tier. 

Back to the babe...I mean waves. 

[Jns2183]

Link please

https://x.com/i/status/2014730518286242198

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

18z NAM looks a touch colder through 30. Keep it coming. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

MU is in….

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

MU is in….

Soooo he lost his own bet? 

[canderson]

Winds are absolutely howling this afternoon. 35-40 mph winds. 

[paweather]

The NAM is a beat down at 18z 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

The NAM is a beat down at 18z 

early on 3k notably better.  Hoping for every panel of blue I can get for lanco.