Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

at 78, primary poof n coastal pops 100ish off Chessy bay.  Saves us from warm nose.

Gonna be a white run for LSV verbatim. 

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

No it’s not. It’s a mauling. 

yep.  Mauler inbound.  I've got a twitch in my jortz

[canderson]

19” for Harrisburg per that gfs run 

[pasnownut]

GFS makes dreams come true.

Now how many chips do we throw in??

 

[pasnownut]

wraps up around noon Monday.  

F me runnin.  Pleasant surprise.

[AccuChris]

18z GFS stays firm on staying all snow north of the M/D line for PA and buries us all


.

[GrandmasterB]

I love seeing the GFS hold, but it’s still on its own. Really need some other guidance to buy in…hopefully starting with the Euro. 

[WmsptWx]

That's it. 

All in. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Hey let's make sure we're coming at the new members correctly so this can be a fun storm for everybody. 

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

yes, I spoke too soon. sorry 

All good - ignore some of the mid Atlantic posters lol 

[Festus]

We can manage some shallow warm intrusion if we maintain rates.  Makes for some cool half dollar size flakes that are only partially melted.  

[WmsptWx]

3 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Hey let's make sure we're coming at the new members correctly so this can be a fun storm for everybody. 

I'm gonna sleep with their entire lineage. 

[pasnownut]

Just need HH Euro to pop coastal a touch sooner, and I'm all in.

Still feeling pretty darn good about MBY seein 12" before any taint (if any), and if not, 16" is my new hi bar.  Still dont think well keep hi ratios some are suggesting in southeastern parts of the LSV.  

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I love seeing the GFS hold, but it’s still on its own. Really need some other guidance to buy in…hopefully starting with the Euro. 

For your wish to come true, Euro needs to drop primary quicker.

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

That's it. 

All in. 

Come on.......

you were all in well before you said you were........all in.  

Weenie

[Jns2183]

Doesn't seem like anyone's going to answer. I had a thought that's most likely wrong but I'll throw it out there anyways. I was thinking that maybe because it's modeled and not actually sampled there's other data points influencing the best guess.  

Still not sure, but the nam sent me in search of raw bufkit data. I did find that for faw 18z NAM data that the a few hours with sleet but God it was only between 25mb for most and barely a degree above freezing. I'm skeptical. My eyes also hurt from that shit

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[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Come on.......

you were all in well before you said you were........all in.  

Weenie

That NAM run does introduce some low level concern, and I'm always worried about cutoffs being a little further from the coast then most here, but the consistency is enough to relax the concern a bit.

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Still not sure, but the nam sent me in search of raw bufkit data. I did find that for faw 18z NAM data that the a few hours with sleet but God it was only between 25mb for most and barely a degree above freezing. I'm skeptical. My eyes also hurt from that shit

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700's were a razors edge from column being supportive of all snow.  Thats why i stated that just a little bit one way or the other would be a notable diff.  Also because taint window was at max qpf timeframe and at 1-2" hr rates, 3 hrs means a LOT for those of us on the line. 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

The nam is really pumping warmth into the 700mb layer. I call its bluff. 

It has deeper mid level features that are further NW, particularly at 700mb..which is why the WAA at/near that level is so strong. It’s a viable scenario, the 12/26 storm is definitely on my mind here when it comes to the NAM but we’re not yet at the range that it even covers the whole storm so I’m not going to get wound up about it but I’m certainly going to see what other guidance does in the meantime. For all of us here this is likely a sleet vs snow scenario if there ends up being a mix type. Column probably holds the whole way up to about 800mb in a mixing scenario and the frigid surface temps probably aren’t going anywhere. 

Another thing to consider is if we hold all or mostly snow in the southern half of the state, there is still gonna be a good bit of WAA in the mid levels. If we end up somewhere in the spectrum between the GFS and the NAM that  could eventually affect snow growth later in the event at the levels where some of the best lift will be and hence you end up with worse snow ratios even with how cold the surface will be. Kuchera only calculates off of the coldest temp in the layer and not the combo of where the best lift vs temp of that level is. So a 17-18:1 fluff bomb could turn into more of a standard climo 12-14:1 during some of the best part of the storm. 

Just laying out thoughts here, I’m pretty highly confident everyone easily gets warning snow in here and impacts are going to be major regardless. I feel like a 10-16” type snowfall area wide is a fairly prudent call right now with the acknowledgment that this could trend a little bit worse (more sleet) in the southern tier or better for everyone if something like the colder GFS came to fruition. 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

That NAM run does introduce some low level concern, and I'm always worried about cutoffs being a little further from the coast then most here, but the consistency is enough to relax the concern a bit.

I really think for once, your locale will benefit from being too far east for warm nose intrusion, and far enough west for waa from coastal.  You should be all in pal.  Were I you, I'd not worry much at all.  Huntingon to Skook/Nepa dude still gets my vote for max snow's

[GrandmasterB]

Who’s in for a contest? Total storm accum for KMDT. Closest wins. None of that without going over bull****. I’ll keep track. You win pride and maybe a small prize. I’ll close it at 11pm tonight. 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Who’s in for a contest? Total storm accum for KMDT. Closest wins. None of that without going over bull****. I’ll keep track. You win pride and maybe a small prize. I’ll close it at 11pm tonight. 

In. 
 

12.8”

[2001kx]

6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Who’s in for a contest? Total storm accum for KMDT. Closest wins. None of that without going over bull****. I’ll keep track. You win pride and maybe a small prize. I’ll close it at 11pm tonight. 

14.5

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Who’s in for a contest? Total storm accum for KMDT. Closest wins. None of that without going over bull****. I’ll keep track. You win pride and maybe a small prize. I’ll close it at 11pm tonight. 

13.9"

[Festus]

8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Who’s in for a contest? Total storm accum for KMDT. Closest wins. None of that without going over bull****. I’ll keep track. You win pride and maybe a small prize. I’ll close it at 11pm tonight. 

17.0

[SnowPlowGuy88]

Made final preparations at the shop today. Fueled up all equipment, placed snow stakes where needed, briefed management on my plan for about 8-10 hours of moving snow piles in preparation for the next storm. All is good, prepping potato soup for the crockpot. GAME ON!!

[GrandmasterB]

God you guys are weenies 

[SnowPlowGuy88]

9 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Who’s in for a contest? Total storm accum for KMDT. Closest wins. None of that without going over bull****. I’ll keep track. You win pride and maybe a small prize. I’ll close it at 11pm tonight. 

22” at New Cumberland airport. Shop is located at the end of the runway 

[GrandmasterB]

I’m going 8.2 and you are going to hate it. 

[2001kx]