Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[MickeyTim6533]

Glad to have joined this site, excited about this storm and all the insight on here from everyone!

[canderson]

Feels like really nice 6-10” as a baseline storm for Harrisburg to me. 

[Subliminal87]

I work a 24 hour shift Saturday in west Chester area and then have to drive home Sunday morning at 6am to carlise.  
 

luuuuuuucky me.  

[AccuChris]

18z Euro AI holds firm and the 18z GEFS AI was actually a tick better in QPF too



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[AccuChris]

Here are also the latest new para (experimental NBM) snow outputs and regular NBM. Remember these are simply 10:1 maps so the true snowfall via proper ratios are not considered here



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[AccuChris]

And finally for good measure, the 18z Euro Op
Kuchera snow


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[canderson]

The weenie suicide rate in the MA thread makes Wall Street in 1929 blush.

[Jns2183]

Here's from an infograph I made from the text bulletins of the 19z NBM. specifically regarding snowfall percentile amounts by region

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[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Here's from an infograph I made from the text bulletins of the 19z NBM. specifically regarding snowfall percentile amounts by region

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

The NWS could use your help

[MAG5035]

2.5” so far this evening here, what a nice surprise. Was down at our camp in NW Huntingdon Co earlier and about the same there as well. Roads are a mess.

[Caveman]

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Here's from an infograph I made from the text bulletins of the 19z NBM. specifically regarding snowfall percentile amounts by region

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

That’s very cool!  The communication of the numerical guidance in one succinct graphic!  Awesome!

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

A foot of snow? 

my point was that it's NOT going to cut.  Strung out and less amped means not cutting west of us.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Glad to have joined this site, excited about this storm and all the insight on here from everyone!

Welcome aboard!

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

my point was that it's NOT going to cut.  Strung out and less amped means not cutting west of us.

Gotcha! 

[Blizzard of 93]

53 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Here are also the latest new para (experimental NBM) snow outputs and regular NBM. Remember these are simply 10:1 maps so the true snowfall via proper ratios are not considered here



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I think the NBM factors in ratios.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the close up view of the 18z Euro  for our region.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the close up view of the 18z Euro  for our region.

Let it snow!

[SnowPlowGuy88]

Getting excited for my first long duration plow event since ‘21. I have since switched companies and now only have to take care of our shop/storage unit site. Not a lot of places to put the snow, going to have to account for that since we should still have some chances down the road. Won’t be far from @Yardstickgozinya and will try to get some pics in. We have a full kitchen in the shop, thinking about whipping up some potato soup and throwing it in a croc pot for some quick refreshment. 

[Jns2183]

For anyone who wants a look at Google's new weather model, meteorologist Eric Fisher has a simple forcast viewer on his github

https://efisher828.github.io/weathernext/


Here's more information on it
https://deepmind.google/science/weathernext/

https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/projects_gcp-public-data-weathernext_assets_weathernext_2_0_0

If anyone has the technical background I believe you can already do a whole lot more

Finally this new endeavor I came across that has a whole lot of potential even though it currently only had temperature and wind verification scores.
https://www.actuallyweather.com/?run_date=2026-01-21

What's neat is it has it by major weather reporting station, like kmdt. The promise is soon we could have scorecards for about 50 variables like snow, and rainfall, along with ability to customize periods. And yes, I understand the scorecards put out by the nws and euro are for much larger areas and maybe even tracking slightly different metrics, but dear God they require hours of study to even interpret probably as the user base for them usually have phD. While I understand that accuracy in temperature or qpf for a single location has the probability of noise being potentially exponentially bigger than the signal, (i.e a model, especially an mL one that continuelly maximizes minute station details may quickly Decoherence at the upper air forcasts that drive accurate forcasting at a greater geospatial scale; in happy that a true effort is finally being made to score at the level we all care bout and spend so much effort discussing.

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[Jns2183]

Here's substack post from new app
https://open.substack.com/pub/actuallyweather/p/which-forecast-is-best?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=16mod

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[MAG5035]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I think the NBM factors in ratios.

It does, I know reading into the updates of the new version that it mainly applies the Cobb method for snow ratios. I think the current version does to a degree as well, not sure. But the NBM snow maps do factor in variable ratios.