Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

3 measurements yielded an average of 4.5" here in Maytown. Everything was encased in white and made for a true Hallmark scene. Only had about 1" on the driveway so no shoveling was required. That was my only disappointment.

Glad you finally got a decent snow event!

[Jns2183]

Did you get anything? I know Lemoyne essentially had zilch like us.  

1.5-2"

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[Jns2183]

Something I've been working on regarding the past 5 winters

On the FWL partial-regression plot, both axes are residuals after removing Tmax anomaly (so “warm vs cold days” isn’t driving the picture anymore).

X-axis (Opportunity residual): how much more/less precipitation fell on cold + marginal days than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly.

Y-axis (Snow residual): how much more/less snowfall you got than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly.


So the four quadrants are:

Quadrant I: +X, +Y

Storms timed cold, and snow overperformed.
Precip showed up in the cold/marginal window and turned into snow efficiently. Think: clean cold-air setups, good snow ratios, minimal mixing.

Quadrant II: −X, +Y

Not much cold-timed precip, but snow still overperformed.
This is “few chances, big payoff” month: one or two big events, banding, lake enhancement, or unusually high snow-to-liquid ratios made snow punch above its weight.

Quadrant III: −X, −Y

Storms missed the cold window, and snow underperformed.
Classic fail mode: precip skewed warm (rain/mix), or it was just dry when it was cold.

Quadrant IV: +X, −Y

You had “opportunity,” but snow still underperformed.
This is the interesting one: precip landed on days whose daily average looked cold enough, yet accumulation didn’t happen. Common culprits:

warm layer aloft (sleet/freezing rain/rain even if surface avg looks cold),

warm ground/roads (especially early season),

heavy precip falling during the warmest hours,

wet/compact snow measuring low.


How to read distance from the origin

Far right: storms favored cold/marginal timing a lot.

Far left: storms favored warm timing a lot.

Far up: snow efficiency/event structure boosted totals.

Far down: mixing/ground warmth/timing within the day suppressed totals.


What happened each winter

(Dec–Mar totals)

Winter 2021 (snow anomaly +7.5")

Precip anomaly: +0.27" (near normal)

Cold precip fraction: 0.34

Timing shift: +2.00" (precip aligned with actual-cold days more than the climo window)

Translation: good storm alignment with cold snaps.


Winter 2022 (snow anomaly −12.2")

Precip anomaly: −3.16" (dry hurt you)

Cold days were actually higher than the climo window (43 vs 38), but…

Cold precip fraction: 0.18

Timing shift: −1.96" (precip skewed warm relative to climo-cold calendar days)

Translation: cold existed, but storms arrived when it was too warm, plus it was drier overall.


Winter 2023 (snow anomaly −22.6")

Precip anomaly: −2.17"

Cold precip fraction: 0.03 (basically none)

Timing shift: −2.20"

Translation: storms mostly missed the freezing window entirely. This is the clearest “bad timing” winter.


Winter 2024 (snow anomaly −9.8")

Precip anomaly: +4.55" (very wet)

Cold precip fraction: 0.09

Timing shift: −4.22" (largest warm-skew)

Translation: a rain winter. Tons of water, almost all delivered on warm days.


Winter 2025 (snow anomaly −13.1")

Precip anomaly: −3.85" (very dry)

Cold days were much higher than climo (53 vs 38)

Timing shift: +0.18" (near zero)

Translation: timing wasn’t the main villain. You had cold, but not enough moisture.

Biggest positive snow months:

Feb 2021: +10.3" snow anomaly with +1.75" precip anomaly and 1.70" precip on observed-cold days.

Dec 2020 (Winter 2021’s Dec): +7.3" snow anomaly with decent cold-precip alignment

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[Summit Snow]

6 hours ago, NepaJames8602 said:

5.0" total here in my part of the Poconos. I wasn't expecting anything near that. Nice event. Seasonal total 21.0". Excellent December here.

Agree-another 4" inches last night. Brief warm-up midweek and then we see what happens with the cold just North of us. 19" so far this year with three payments to the plow truck! 

[Jns2183]

Forgot the snow opportunity vs snow anamoly plot

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[Superstorm]

Today is one of those rare days that gets me jacked as a weather guy- my temp was 26 at 10am and 4 hours later it's 19. Love it!

Yeah, it is true arctic air….18F


.

[Yardstickgozinya]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

Did you get anything? I know Lemoyne essentially had zilch like us.  

Because the pictures I post must be fake. Do you ever quit antagonizing and slapping people in the face. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Dude's whole deal last night was to antagonize discredit and ruin other people's fun and I don't think it could have been any more obvious.. 

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Because the pictures I post must be fake. Do you ever quit antagonizing and slapping people in the face. 

wtf are you talking about? So many got great snow all around - Linglestown had a couple of inches. I’m happy for everyone and never expected this to be a city story due to temps but it’s cool nearly everyone cashed in. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

wtf are you talking about? So many got great snow all around - Linglestown had a couple of inches. I’m happy for everyone and never expected this to be a city story due to temps but it’s cool nearly everyone cashed in. 

  You just can't stop trying to be a snake at every single opportunity. Are You really trying to flip this script as if i'm trying to say, no one got much snow, is that really what you're gonna do here. Do you think the people are really so dumb that they're not going remember my posts from last night.  Just because everyone else has given you a free pass to be a snake in the grass doesn't mean I have to allow you to be one. I think your behavior last night was some of the most disgusting I've ever seen on the forum while people were actually trying to enjoy themselves. I've done some a****** things myself but I at least saved them for after the snow. 

[Voyager]

35 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Because the pictures I post must be fake. Do you ever quit antagonizing and slapping people in the face. 

 

30 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Dude's whole deal last night was to antagonize discredit and ruin other people's fun and I don't think it could have been any more obvious.. 

Canderson's good people, and nearly everyone, myself included, have deep respect for him and his posts. He doesn't deserve this kind of treatment.

[Voyager]

15 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

  You just can't stop trying to be a snake at every single opportunity. Are You really trying to flip this script as if i'm trying to say, no one got much snow, is that really what you're gonna do here. Do you think the people are really so dumb that they're not going remember my posts from last night.  Just because everyone else has given you a free pass to be a snake in the grass doesn't mean I have to allow you to be one. I think your behavior last night was some of the most disgusting I've ever seen on the forum while people were actually trying to enjoy themselves. I've done some a****** things myself but I at least saved them for after the snow. 

Dude......really?

[Yardstickgozinya]

19 hours ago, canderson said:

Sober for 2 months actually - it flipped back to snow a few mins ago. Car roofs and mulch have a dusting  

This was as disgusting as any of them. I understand what you are trying to do here and although people will give you a free pass, this is some true, f****** a****** s*** right here . Its absolute b******* that I had to put up with this kind of stuff myself for so many years.There's absolutely no reason why blizzard should have to be on the receiving end of this a******'s games either. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Dude......really?

DudeReally?Stop enabling someone who keeps ruining the forum. 

[paweather5]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

 

Canderson's good people, and nearly everyone, myself included, have deep respect for him and his posts. He doesn't deserve this kind of treatment.

I agree 100 percent with this statement. He has always been a great member. I looked back at what he said last night and see absolutely nothing wrong with it. He posted facts that they didn’t get much, don’t see anything wrong with that. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm not going to play the blind and stupid game with anybody. I'm done stop this f****** trash. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I believe he didn't get much either.It's besides the whole point. 

[Voyager]

1 minute ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

DudeReally?Stop enabling someone who keeps ruining the forum. 

Your attitude ruins the forum more than Canderson's does six days from Sunday which means that he doesn't, and hasn't, ruin(ed) the forum at all, ever.

Just now, paweather5 said:

I agree 100 percent with this statement. He has always been a great member. I looked back at what he said last night and see absolutely nothing wrong with it. He posted facts that they didn’t get much, don’t see anything wrong with that. 

Nope. I don't either. He was just posting what was transpiring in his backyard/neighborhood.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Spoken like a true enabler

[Voyager]

3 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I'm not going to play the blind and stupid game with anybody. I'm done stop this f****** trash. 

You started the f****** trash with your posts. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

5 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

I agree 100 percent with this statement. He has always been a great member. I looked back at what he said last night and see absolutely nothing wrong with it. He posted facts that they didn’t get much, don’t see anything wrong with that. 

I don't see anything wrong with that part of the conversation.Either, I think he was posting facts .

[Yardstickgozinya]

4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

You started the f****** trash with your posts. 

No the attempted character assassination of blizzard using alcohol was the last straw for me. 

[Blizzard of 93]

If you are referring to me, I was joking around with @canderson last night when I asked if he had some beers. He has posted many times over the years about having some weekend or travel drinks.
He had bad luck with snow in the city last night & I was joking around with him. I don’t recall any attempt at him coming after my or anyone else’s character. We go way back on here, so I was just having a little fun, but I believed his observations. Now that I know he’s done with drinking at this time, I won’t joke about it anymore.

Let’s keep the peace in here please. We have a good group.

[Yardstickgozinya]

The whole points of my argument was never the amount of snow.I think it's pretty obvious from last night that it tapered off pretty quick from harrisburg to etters and the fact that you all keep trying to make it the point speaks volumes to those that know how to read. 

[Voyager]

16 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

No the attempted character assassination of blizzard using alcohol was the last straw for me. 

 I, and I doubt that anyone other than YOU, didn't see it as a character assassination at all.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

I, and I doubt that anyone other than YOU, didn't see it as a character assassination at all.

See my post above. I have no idea where he got that idea. It was clearly a couple a long time posters joking around.

[mahantango#1]

[Voyager]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

See my post above. I have no idea where he got that idea. It was clearly a couple a long time posters joking around.

Absolutely. I saw it the same way you did.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Absolutely. I saw it the same way you did.

I just looked back at the posts & didn’t see anything more than usual snow event banter & Observations.

[Voyager]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I just looked back at the posts & didn’t see anything more than usual snow event banter & Observations.

Yup. That's all it was. There was nothing offensive or hurtful in any of the posts during that time frame.