Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

3 measurements yielded an average of 4.5" here in Maytown. Everything was encased in white and made for a true Hallmark scene. Only had about 1" on the driveway so no shoveling was required. That was my only disappointment.

Glad you finally got a decent snow event!

[Jns2183]

Did you get anything? I know Lemoyne essentially had zilch like us.  

1.5-2"

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[Jns2183]

Something I've been working on regarding the past 5 winters

On the FWL partial-regression plot, both axes are residuals after removing Tmax anomaly (so “warm vs cold days” isn’t driving the picture anymore).

X-axis (Opportunity residual): how much more/less precipitation fell on cold + marginal days than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly.

Y-axis (Snow residual): how much more/less snowfall you got than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly.


So the four quadrants are:

Quadrant I: +X, +Y

Storms timed cold, and snow overperformed.
Precip showed up in the cold/marginal window and turned into snow efficiently. Think: clean cold-air setups, good snow ratios, minimal mixing.

Quadrant II: −X, +Y

Not much cold-timed precip, but snow still overperformed.
This is “few chances, big payoff” month: one or two big events, banding, lake enhancement, or unusually high snow-to-liquid ratios made snow punch above its weight.

Quadrant III: −X, −Y

Storms missed the cold window, and snow underperformed.
Classic fail mode: precip skewed warm (rain/mix), or it was just dry when it was cold.

Quadrant IV: +X, −Y

You had “opportunity,” but snow still underperformed.
This is the interesting one: precip landed on days whose daily average looked cold enough, yet accumulation didn’t happen. Common culprits:

warm layer aloft (sleet/freezing rain/rain even if surface avg looks cold),

warm ground/roads (especially early season),

heavy precip falling during the warmest hours,

wet/compact snow measuring low.


How to read distance from the origin

Far right: storms favored cold/marginal timing a lot.

Far left: storms favored warm timing a lot.

Far up: snow efficiency/event structure boosted totals.

Far down: mixing/ground warmth/timing within the day suppressed totals.


What happened each winter

(Dec–Mar totals)

Winter 2021 (snow anomaly +7.5")

Precip anomaly: +0.27" (near normal)

Cold precip fraction: 0.34

Timing shift: +2.00" (precip aligned with actual-cold days more than the climo window)

Translation: good storm alignment with cold snaps.


Winter 2022 (snow anomaly −12.2")

Precip anomaly: −3.16" (dry hurt you)

Cold days were actually higher than the climo window (43 vs 38), but…

Cold precip fraction: 0.18

Timing shift: −1.96" (precip skewed warm relative to climo-cold calendar days)

Translation: cold existed, but storms arrived when it was too warm, plus it was drier overall.


Winter 2023 (snow anomaly −22.6")

Precip anomaly: −2.17"

Cold precip fraction: 0.03 (basically none)

Timing shift: −2.20"

Translation: storms mostly missed the freezing window entirely. This is the clearest “bad timing” winter.


Winter 2024 (snow anomaly −9.8")

Precip anomaly: +4.55" (very wet)

Cold precip fraction: 0.09

Timing shift: −4.22" (largest warm-skew)

Translation: a rain winter. Tons of water, almost all delivered on warm days.


Winter 2025 (snow anomaly −13.1")

Precip anomaly: −3.85" (very dry)

Cold days were much higher than climo (53 vs 38)

Timing shift: +0.18" (near zero)

Translation: timing wasn’t the main villain. You had cold, but not enough moisture.

Biggest positive snow months:

Feb 2021: +10.3" snow anomaly with +1.75" precip anomaly and 1.70" precip on observed-cold days.

Dec 2020 (Winter 2021’s Dec): +7.3" snow anomaly with decent cold-precip alignment

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[Summit Snow]

6 hours ago, NepaJames8602 said:

5.0" total here in my part of the Poconos. I wasn't expecting anything near that. Nice event. Seasonal total 21.0". Excellent December here.

Agree-another 4" inches last night. Brief warm-up midweek and then we see what happens with the cold just North of us. 19" so far this year with three payments to the plow truck! 

[Jns2183]

Forgot the snow opportunity vs snow anamoly plot

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[Superstorm]

Today is one of those rare days that gets me jacked as a weather guy- my temp was 26 at 10am and 4 hours later it's 19. Love it!

Yeah, it is true arctic air….18F


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