MikeB_01 Posted Sunday at 01:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:34 PM 44° on Tuesday. People are going to be out in shorts and t shirt . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: 44° on Tuesday. People are going to be out in shorts and t shirt . Get to the car wash early. Gonna be long lines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM 2 hours ago, colonel717 said: Get to the car wash early. Gonna be long lines. I was gonna stop today since I have a month free and Holy shit the lines were crazy already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM 15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I was gonna stop today since I have a month free and Holy shit the lines were crazy already. I thought about it, but Tuesday with the melt / residual salt the road spray will just cover my car again anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted Sunday at 09:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:20 PM Is it safe so say models are locking in to some type of storm next Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM 19 minutes ago, north pgh said: Is it safe so say models are locking in to some type of storm next Sunday? Yes. P-types all over the place but the GFS has improved a bit from the true cutter look it had been depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Monday at 12:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:57 PM 15 hours ago, north pgh said: Is it safe so say models are locking in to some type of storm next Sunday? Those are the key words. It looks likely we see some sort of storm somewhere in the east. The pattern is in transition this week though, so that's going to add even more uncertainty. Depending on timing and track, there may be enough residual cold and blocking left for snow. After the 15th though, I think we probably see a "real" thaw and stack at least a couple days above average in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted Monday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:32 PM While it has been a fairly cold and snowy winter, overall, especially relative to recent history, we haven't totally escaped warm spells. December was 40F+ between the 17th and 29th, including those final two days of 64F. January also had a warm burst, though shorter in duration, between the 5th and 14th. Not that anyone would remember now, haha. We're definitely losing the favorable meta-factors. All indices look to flip: -PNA, +AO, and +NAO. EPO region looks to go back to positive, as well. In fact, it looks like a lot like that December alignment. In that sense, we could, in theory, look at a two-week period (give or take) of generally warmer temps. The timing of that is unfortunate because we'd be losing some of the prime winter portions in the heart of February, our second-snowiest month, on average. The remaining question is if the pattern reloads again come March, or if we slide into an even warmer pattern long-term. I think the former is more likely, as we've seen multiple times already this year, but that is always TBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EVLINC64 Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:39 PM The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 19h This tweet from Feb 4. Here we are Feb 8 and the AI almighty ( Google Graphcast) has a similar map forecasted as the human researched 4 storm analog did 4 days ago. So model is coming to me, which means nothing unless it happens. The analog method has risk Pick the wrong ones and you are wrong. But if you dissect the pattern right , this will be an example of a 10-12 day call. It's fun because you change the forecast only once, right before the storm, and then you bring in models to hone in on the details. I wonder what the old-timers who taught me, the analog members, would do today with this new-order AI stuff. They were way ahead of their time. I was fortunate enough to be around to learn from them and to have their work ethic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted Monday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:42 PM Is it safe so say models are locking in to some type of storm next Sunday?NWS has a possible freezing rain to rain scenario as of now. Temps in the upper 30s Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Monday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:29 PM 1 hour ago, blackngoldrules said: 19 hours ago, north pgh said: Is it safe so say models are locking in to some type of storm next Sunday? NWS has a possible freezing rain to rain scenario as of now. Temps in the upper 30s Sunday. I was on the verge of giving up for the weekend... but latest CMC has almost perfect scenario for us. Its going to require a perfect track. UKie is similar to CMC with period of heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Monday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:45 PM 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: I was on the verge of giving up for the weekend... but latest CMC has almost perfect scenario for us. Its going to require a perfect track. UKie is similar to CMC with period of heavy snow. Primary seems to hang on too long to feel any comfort. Haven't really looked at it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Monday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:50 PM 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Primary seems to hang on too long to feel any comfort. Haven't really looked at it yet. Its a total long shot but with 2 models showing snow for us, I can't jump off the bus yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EVLINC64 Posted Monday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:25 PM The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 36m I have not changed ideas on next weeks storm. Nor have I changed ideas on how the met community is being sold a bill of goods on AI's The is the latest Google graphcast at 500 mb. After 5 straight runs showing a major trough in the east, its got a wimp going thru the south, Is it right? Well it could be. I dont believe it.But how the heck is a model supposedly so good and less than a week out, it has that kind of change on a run. What has happened hemispherically to cause that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Models look interesting for the weekend. Still too far out but maybe a chance at a minor-moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 32 at the airport. 33 at my house. Let the melt begin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 44 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Models look interesting for the weekend. Still too far out but maybe a chance at a minor-moderate snowfall. What are you seeing? I am not seeing anything for our area outside a possible few flakes. I see the UK crushes to the east. I am getting vibes of 2021. We had a great Dec and January then winter stopped here by early February while other areas had great rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago And so ends the sub-freezing streak, with 18 days in a row staying entirely below 32 (the famous 1976-77 streak had a day in the middle of the streak hit exactly 32), this is good for 5th all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Up to 50F now. First over 40F reading since January 14th (48F), and first 50F since the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Up to 50F now. First over 40F reading since January 14th (48F), and first 50F since the 13th. Hard to believe it was -5F yesterday morning! Must be one of the bigger day-to-day swings on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 29 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Hard to believe it was -5F yesterday morning! Must be one of the bigger day-to-day swings on record. Off the top of my head, I can come up with a 14F to 76F swing from the morning of 3/29/22 to the afternoon of 3/30/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago The good news is nothing on horizon for next 10-15 days. Should be nice slow snow melt so no floods. Then wait to see if we have one last gasp of winter. I was out grilling for lunch. Nice to smell burgers cooking on the grill. Spring right around the corner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Glorious day. It seems like we tend to usually bust higher in temps on days like these. Has me almost ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EVLINC64 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 1h Only I and the Canadian are left with any storm threat in the NE Feb 15-16. But until I can see what this looks like when it reaches the w coast, and I am sure the northern branch does not feed a piece in, no change in ideas This way I am wrong once. If they models come back alot of people are wrong multiple times, since they parrot the models if they are using models. But people that have been saying nothing is coming for a while certainly own the field now. Touche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, TimB said: Off the top of my head, I can come up with a 14F to 76F swing from the morning of 3/29/22 to the afternoon of 3/30/22. I don't know how you had that date memorized. Anyways, up to 60F now (-5F to +55F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't know how you had that date memorized. Anyways, up to 60F now (-5F to +55F). Knew it was the last week of March 2022. I did have to cheat and look up the exact date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Wow.. it feels good outside. Normally I'm depressed to see the snow melt, but after that stretch Ill allow it. Time to get into big dog hunting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Glad I'm not the only one enjoying a day like this. All that brutal cold day after day, week after week, just gets old along with the giant mounds of snow everywhere. Finally got to wash my car and get that metal eating, paint eating salt off of it. Good to have a day where you can walk outside and your face doesn't hurt! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Yes, it was a gorgeous day. Looks like we’ll keep some snowpack, though looking at the extended it’s on borrowed time and will likely be gone this weekend. All good things must come to an end. I’m intrigued to see how warm we can get next week. 60s seem possible if not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Once we get to March 1st, I start rooting for highs in the 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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