Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[MikeB_01]

44° on Tuesday. People are going to be out in shorts and t shirt


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[colonel717]

1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

44° on Tuesday. People are going to be out in shorts and t shirt


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Get to the car wash early. Gonna be long lines. 

[Rd9108]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Get to the car wash early. Gonna be long lines. 

I was gonna stop today since I have a month free and Holy shit the lines were crazy already.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I was gonna stop today since I have a month free and Holy shit the lines were crazy already.

I thought about it, but Tuesday with the melt / residual salt the road spray will just cover my car again anyways.

[north pgh]

Is it safe so say models are locking in to some type of storm next Sunday?

[TimB]

19 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Is it safe so say models are locking in to some type of storm next Sunday?

Yes. P-types all over the place but the GFS has improved a bit from the true cutter look it had been depicting.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

15 hours ago, north pgh said:

Is it safe so say models are locking in to some type of storm next Sunday?

Those are the key words. 

It looks likely we see some sort of storm somewhere in the east. The pattern is in transition this week though, so that's going to add even more uncertainty. Depending on timing and track, there may be enough residual cold and blocking left for snow. After the 15th though, I think we probably see a "real" thaw and stack at least a couple days above average in a row. 

[jwilson]

While it has been a fairly cold and snowy winter, overall, especially relative to recent history, we haven't totally escaped warm spells.

December was 40F+ between the 17th and 29th, including those final two days of 64F.  January also had a warm burst, though shorter in duration, between the 5th and 14th.  Not that anyone would remember now, haha.

We're definitely losing the favorable meta-factors.  All indices look to flip: -PNA, +AO, and +NAO.  EPO region looks to go back to positive, as well.  In fact, it looks like a lot like that December alignment.

In that sense, we could, in theory, look at a two-week period (give or take) of generally warmer temps.  The timing of that is unfortunate because we'd be losing some of the prime winter portions in the heart of February, our second-snowiest month, on average.

The remaining question is if the pattern reloads again come March, or if we slide into an even warmer pattern long-term.  I think the former is more likely, as we've seen multiple times already this year, but that is always TBD.

[EVLINC64]

 

 

 

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

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19h

 

 

This tweet from Feb 4. Here we are Feb 8 and the AI almighty ( Google Graphcast) has a similar map forecasted as the human researched 4 storm analog did 4 days ago. So model is coming to me, which means nothing unless it happens. The analog method has risk Pick the wrong ones and you are wrong. But if you dissect the pattern right , this will be an example of a 10-12 day call. It's fun because you change the forecast only once, right before the storm, and then you bring in models to hone in on the details. I wonder what the old-timers who taught me, the analog members, would do today with this new-order AI stuff. They were way ahead of their time. I was fortunate enough to be around to learn from them and to have their work ethic