Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Ahoff]

We keep up these rates until 7pm like forecast, a foot will be easy.

[SteelCity87]

Just now, Ahoff said:

We keep up these rates until 7pm like forecast, a foot will be easy.

If we keep up these rates until 7pm 15" will be easy lol 

[TimB]

Lots of yellows on the radar upstream…

[Ahoff]

2 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

If we keep up these rates until 7pm 15" will be easy lol 

Let's do it!

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

I shoveled a second time-measured just shy of 7”-been ripping all morning but I can see the WTOD-seeing how that goes

[north pgh]

6 inches at 9:30

[MikeB_01]

2 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

I shoveled a second time-measured just shy of 7”-been ripping all morning but I can see the WTOD-seeing how that goes

i noticed that too. Reports of sleet in morgantown. 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

i noticed that too. Reports of sleet in morgantown. 

Looking at future radar-looks to be here by 11-12 and back to snow around 2-3pm so not a killer

[Ahoff]

Has the WTOD been over modeled, under or just right?

[SteelCity87]

This has to be 2"/hr rates at least. Just pouring snow 

[MikeB_01]

Just now, SteelCity87 said:

This has to be 2"/hr rates at least. Just pouring snow 

and to be snowing this hard while it is 12° out. Super impressive

[SteelCity87]

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

and to be snowing this hard while it is 12° out. Super impressive

The radar looks absolutely insane. I have been bit before though by those heavy returns. No reason to not think they're snow but the PTSD is strong from storms past 

[TimB]

Good lord, 50-55 dbz returns in that Wheeling batch? Oh how I hope that’s all snow.

[TheClimateChanger]

Any concern about these very heavy returns? What does radar correlation coefficient show?

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Has the WTOD been over modeled, under or just right?

I’d say just right at this point-yinz in AGC north are good! What an awesome storm!

[TimB]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Any concern about these very heavy returns? What does radar correlation coefficient show?

Sadly, shows some mix.

[Ahoff]

I thought heavier returns meant snow more likely?

[Rd9108]

First shovel. Should have woken up earlier. Between helping the neighbors and myself Im whooped.

[Burghblizz]

Only ice report I’ve seen is Fairmont. Would seem to have a good cushion still for most. 

[colonel717]

Look at this radar. Wow. 5 inches so far. Shoveled twice. 

[TimB]

Mixing. Correlation coefficient tells all. 

[MikeB_01]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Any concern about these very heavy returns? What does radar correlation coefficient show?

 

3 minutes ago, TimB said:

Sadly, shows some mix.

 

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I thought heavier returns meant snow more likely?

 

[TimB]

Now whether that mixing makes it another 50 miles NE with that batch is hopefully a different story.

[blackngoldrules]

Look at this radar. Wow. 5 inches so far. Shoveled twice. 

Coming down heavy now! Those returns from Wheeling working their way toward us.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I thought heavier returns meant snow more likely?

Sleet has a higher reflectivity on radar, so when watching that in winter storm like this can sometimes hint were the mix is.

My guess is as that moves NE it will lessen on radar but actually just mean its all snow 

[MikeB_01]

What a scene outside! Puking snow right now

[Ahoff]

What do the upper air patterns show?  Are they moving towards us?

 

[blackngoldrules]

Almost a whiteout outside right now.

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

What do the upper air patterns show?  Are they moving towards us?

 

all mesoanalysis maps have the 0°c line well south of here, but reports are of sleet in morgantown and wheeling. So im not sure how much to trust the meso thermo profiles right now. 

 

A SPC discussion mentions peak frontogenesis running through pittsburgh. Just need to hope that the sleet rides east on that front and doesn't progress north

[Rd9108]