Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Mailman]

US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 

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One thing we are monitoring is a "warm nose" or layer of warmer air that could change snow characteristics or even precipitation-type near or south of Pittsburgh. The first image highlights that uncertainty and how the forecast changes if it advances farther northward than expected.

At this time, areas near and south of Morgantown are likely to see warm air create a period of sleet and/or freezing rain during the day Sunday. Even with lower amounts of snow, this mix of snow + ice + sleet can still impact road conditions and result in power outages.

There remain scenarios that this warm layer works farther northward. What does that mean? If this does occur (a lower probability to do so), these areas may see slightly lower but still impactful amounts of heavier/wetter snow that is harder to deal with.

The second graphic highlights how this event may change with time for a place like Pittsburgh: dry, fluffy snow to start becoming wet/heavy during the day Sunday before transitioning to dry/fluffy Monday morning.

This is why simple temperature changes can create more nuance to a forecast that a “storm total snow” may not fully describe. Our office works hard to communicate all these aspects with regional partners so they can best navigate the challenges winter storms create.

 

 

[Ecanem]

For what it’s worth.  
 

the 6z NAM had the south hills air temperature at 11 degrees by 1pm.  The reality is it was 7.7 degrees. 

[TheClimateChanger]

[colonel717]

Radar and observations. There was worry about virga delaying snow but those in Indiana say not much and started early than they said. 

[MikeB_01]

Do I see less of a nose depicted there??


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[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Do I see less of a nose depicted there??


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Doesn't look like too much of a warm nose. Less south of I-70 still, but no particular warm push into our region. I don't think there would be too many complaints from this outcome, ranging from 10" at Morgantown to 20"+ in the northeast, with a general 12-18" over the core metro area.

[Mailman]

GFS cuts back on the mixing from 12z.

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

GFS shows 23 in near ROTT. Can someone get 2 ft. Crazy to think about. 

[Mailman]

Quicker transfer at 18z?  That's what we want.

[MikeB_01]

GFS shows 23 in near ROTT. Can someone get 2 ft. Crazy to think about. 

Let’s gooooooo


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[RitualOfTheTrout]

11 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

GFS shows 23 in near ROTT. Can someone get 2 ft. Crazy to think about. 

Ill take it!

[PghPirates27]

Just put my snow gauge out in the yard. First time using it let’s see how it does LOL.

 

how does everyone else measure snow? Tape measure? Yard stick? Ruler might not be big enough. 

[Mailman]

Perhaps wishful thinking on my part, but starting to see some late positive trends.

[southpark]

12 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Perhaps wishful thinking on my part, but starting to see some late positive trends.

I agree. I feel like the temps didn't get as high today as forecasted?

[colonel717]

23 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Just put my snow gauge out in the yard. First time using it let’s see how it does LOL.

 

how does everyone else measure snow? Tape measure? Yard stick? Ruler might not be big enough. 

I put up yardstick today. I usually just take my ruler out, but if get more than foot that won't work. 

[MikeB_01]

15 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Perhaps wishful thinking on my part, but starting to see some late positive trends.

 

2 minutes ago, southpark said:

I agree. I feel like the temps didn't get as high today as forecasted?

very curious to see the soundings tonight. I want to see if the warm air is less waa than what the models indicated earlier

[CoraopolisWx]

18z Guidance is fully in agreement on a high end warning event. 
Kickoff/nowcast in about 6hrs. 

[PghPirates27]

Who’s staying up? Colonel? Hahaha. I am not. Up at 730 to start watching and first shovel 

[colonel717]

17 inches on latest GRAF run. This is model weather stations use. 

 

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, PghPirates27 said:

Who’s staying up? Colonel? Hahaha. I am not. Up at 730 to start watching and first shovel 

I sleep so little, I will be up a good amount no doubt.  But wan't to get some sleep since I'll be outside around 730 making my first shoveling. 

[Ecanem]

26 minutes ago, southpark said:

I agree. I feel like the temps didn't get as high today as forecasted?

We are about 2-3 degrees colder than the 18z NAM modeled.  
 

looking at the hrrr last runs.  Every single run was too warm until just before now.  All of these are modeling warmer than reality. 

[PghPirates27]

Yes!!!! 7:30 for me I’ll be out there. Gotta keep up on the shoveling. Is 7:30am too early for a beer?

[Burghblizz]

I like the timing of this. Since it will (hopefully) be all day tomorrow, I don’t feel obligated to stay up. Up early and let’s get it on 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

34 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

We are about 2-3 degrees colder than the 18z NAM modeled.  
 

looking at the hrrr last runs.  Every single run was too warm until just before now.  All of these are modeling warmer than reality. 

Surface temperature isn't the problem, but to your point if its to warm at the surface hopefully its to warm in the upper levels too.

My gut says NAM is over doing the strength of the primary just a little.

[north pgh]

1 hour ago, PghPirates27 said:

Just put my snow gauge out in the yard. First time using it let’s see how it does LOL.

 

how does everyone else measure snow? Tape measure? Yard stick? Ruler might not be big enough. 

I have a little porch table that I used in 2010. I measured every 2 hours and cleaned off up until midnight. Then I measured in the morning. It’s supposed to be most accurate because a yardstick in the ground will have some compacting. 

[colonel717]

[Ecanem]

Euro pushes colder too.